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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #50,841
  • Jul 12, 2019 12:20am Jul 12, 2019 12:20am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I'm right there with you Ef5. The latest dot plot has the majority of the Fed members' (8) assessments at finishing 2019 with rates in a range of 2.25-2.50. There are two outliers and the rest (7) are in agreements at 1.75-2.00. I posted it yesterday here. Here's what I'm not getting... 21% of the market think the FOMC will cut rates 50 basis points in July, which is equal to the most dovish assessments by the most dovish Fed members. After July, the market is...
I m still on your side even if 50 bp being cut.
  • #50,842
  • Jul 12, 2019 12:28am Jul 12, 2019 12:28am
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  • #50,843
  • Jul 12, 2019 12:29am Jul 12, 2019 12:29am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Don't worry about the credibility issue should rates be cut beyond your narritive, the key issue in any debate or topic is the presentation of logical content that's presented I a thought provoking manner, where rationale and reasoning was used to present said content......afterall, you're analysing the data set that's been given and the most likely scenarios around that....can't ask for more..... Keep engaging.....
Well said. Nothing but respect.
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Quoting benlong
{quote} I m still on your side even if 50 bp being cut.
Thanks Ben!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,844
  • Jul 12, 2019 12:35am Jul 12, 2019 12:35am
Quoting Mr.Metal
Gold doesn't looks likely to breakout above 1430 now. All the news trigger needed to do so were in place last 2 weeks. It also has a bottom of 1385 in place, I cannot think of a trigger - scenario in which it would break below 1385 before 31st July. Days leading to 31st July, I believe it would consolidate in the range 1385-1430. Kindly, help me with your opinion, what do you think is trigger now before 31st July, if any, for gold to break 1385 or 1430? Also, which of 1385 or 1430, you think is likely to break first and why (both technically and...
I think that 21% of market participants expecting 50 bp is quite a bit. I'm not sure what the trigger would be, but cutting back rate bets could probably send gold lower. On the other hand, more tariff drama, Brexit news, Iran instability, etc can all support gold to continue higher. The only trigger that I know for sure we will see prior to July 31st is the FOMC meeting. I'm not going to attempt to predict the outcome, but that's the trigger that could send gold outside of the range you mentioned, higher or lower. It's possible. That's my best guess.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,845
  • Jul 12, 2019 12:40am Jul 12, 2019 12:40am
Quoting MzansiObi
Morning traders..... Looking at these levels for the day, 1418( possible high for the day) 1393 (possible low for the day) For now will look to sell rallies, first sell around 1410,49..... Trade safe
First sell order closed for some, rest of position running risk free, SL @ entry. The 1405 handle is interim support let's see if it will break
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #50,846
  • Jul 12, 2019 1:31am Jul 12, 2019 1:31am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I think that 21% of market participants expecting 50 bp is quite a bit. I'm not sure what the trigger would be, but cutting back rate bets could probably send gold lower. On the other hand, more tariff drama, Brexit news, Iran instability, etc can all support gold to continue higher. The only trigger that I know for sure we will see prior to July 31st is the FOMC meeting. I'm not going to attempt to predict the outcome, but that's the trigger that could send gold outside of the range you mentioned, higher or lower. It's possible. That's...
50 basis point is really insane. And after two back to back good data points, NFP and CPI.
The hidden agenda would be to compete with ECB for sending dollar lower.
  • #50,847
  • Jul 12, 2019 1:38am Jul 12, 2019 1:38am
Quoting Mr.Metal
50 basis point is really insane.
I agree 100%. I don't think it's a possibility. In over 20 years of watching the Fed from Greenspan to Powell, a 50 bp rate cut this month would be the biggest surprise in a long time, maybe ever (outside of unscheduled emergency rate cuts). Between now and the end of the month (meeting is July 31st), I see the probability moving to almost 100% of the market will be expecting a 25 bp cut. Everything is signaling stronger dollar (if market gets in line with 25 bp cut). But the market can remain irrational longer than we can stay rational. We'll see.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,848
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:02am Jul 12, 2019 2:02am
Hi there,

Hoping I could glean some information from your wise heads here.

I am a frequent trader, mainly in the main forex pairs but I have been interest in Gold for some time now.

I was wondering if you all could point me in the direction of some materials where I can learn more about Gold, how it moves, technical, fundamental, news etc. Any learning materials available out there either on this forum that you highly recommend or elsewhere.

My plan long term, after I've learnt as much as I possibly can (I have plenty of time to do so), is to trade around Fed announcements/big news around Brexit, you know when themarket really moves.

I've tried to trade Gold before and I've just been blindsided by the market not moving as a market typically moves, or rather as I have seen it move, hence I am asking here. I've searched here and on the wider internet (maybe I've missed plenty), all I've found so far is strategies which obviously aren't really a solid base to build a Gold trading career on. Hence, I am asking here.

Hope you can help. Thanks in advance.

LR
  • #50,849
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:33am Jul 12, 2019 2:33am
Forget the USAvsChina trade war talks.... bah. Gold moves due to availability of cheap money to boost economies... bottom line.

Trade safe.
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #50,850
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:55am Jul 12, 2019 2:55am
Quoting letsride
Hi there, Hoping I could glean some information from your wise heads here. I am a frequent trader, mainly in the main forex pairs but I have been interest in Gold for some time now. I was wondering if you all could point me in the direction of some materials where I can learn more about Gold, how it moves, technical, fundamental, news etc. Any learning materials available out there either on this forum that you highly recommend or elsewhere. My plan long term, after I've learnt as much as I possibly can (I have plenty of time to do so), is to trade...
Read this CNBC article on daily basis, it would take hardly 5 min of your time but give you a brief insight.
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold.JPG Size: 40 KB

Other is gold has price action unlike any other commodity keep watching the ladder as closely as you can. It will take time, but the patterns repeat quite often.
  • #50,851
  • Jul 12, 2019 3:15am Jul 12, 2019 3:15am
Quoting Goldenshot
{quote} Very nice and yet very rare indicator u used. I think it's hard to find one here since i live in galaxy far far away I Will command all the troopers to find it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190712_breakouts_01.png Size: 125 KB

For July 2019, we have 2 positive buy breakouts (4 to 11 and 19 to 29) and only one positive sell breakout (13 to 19). The last sell breakout (29 sell), does not seem to be a positive one either?

I can PM you an older version, if you like. It is just a stupid breakout indicator that can show any kinds of trend (not really in this particular shot I am sharing now), if one knows exactly how to use it.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #50,852
  • Jul 12, 2019 3:50am Jul 12, 2019 3:50am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} {image} For July 2019, we have 2 positive buy breakouts (4 to 11 and 19 to 29) and only one positive sell breakout (13 to 19).
I just saw the distance from the bottom of the buy breakouts is 140, 120 and 140 pips.

While the distance from the tops of the sell breakouts is 270, 270, 140 and 190 pips.

In general, the buy BOs are 120-140 pips away from their bottoms. While the sell BOs are pushed 210+ pips away from their tops.

Somehow, the sell breakouts are pushed DOWN with nearly 50% when compared to the buy BOs? Why?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #50,853
  • Jul 12, 2019 3:54am Jul 12, 2019 3:54am
Quoting letsride
Hi there, Hoping I could glean some information from your wise heads here. I am a frequent trader, mainly in the main forex pairs but I have been interest in Gold for some time now. I was wondering if you all could point me in the direction of some materials where I can learn more about Gold, how it moves, technical, fundamental, news etc. Any learning materials available out there either on this forum that you highly recommend or elsewhere. My plan long term, after I've learnt as much as I possibly can (I have plenty of time to do so), is to trade...
Gold is one of the most, if not the most important asset to understand in order to begin to make sense of the global investment environment and money flows. There's the inverse relationship with the US dollar, some consider it a hedge against inflation, it's a safe-haven, and is sensitive to global instability, as well as economic uncertainty. Those are just a few of the key points among many.

Then, there's physical bullion. Some don't buy gold unless they can touch it and have it in their hands. This is an entirely different world, but one that is interesting. I believe it's important to at least not be ignorant about the physical metals market, whether you buy bullion or not. An easy way to quickly learn all you need to know before investing is the book Stack Silver, Get Gold. Great book.

I'm assuming you're a trader that wants to expand from Forex into different asset classes. That's a great idea. Growth. My recommendation is to learn the fundamentals. I'm not sure where you could go other than talking to traders like us in this thread. Open up a demo. Make mistakes. Learn. Rinse and repeat.

Plenty of members here will be willing to answer your questions as you learn the markets. If you've been trading Forex, it probably won't take you very long to learn about the precious metals market. If you're ever wondering about the events you mentioned, feel free to come by my thread where I try and preview the calendar events with expected impact, mostly on metals. In there, you can probably learn some fundamentals by asking questions about an upcoming event, or one that has passed. Here's the thread: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=921168

Keep in mind, I'm not giving trading advice. I'm just trying to be as prepared as I can. In the process I post my notes and many times have great discussions and further my preparedness. Win win. As you probably know, trading events is as risky as it gets.

Good luck and welcome to a very exciting metals market.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,854
  • Jul 12, 2019 4:37am Jul 12, 2019 4:37am
1410 handle strong sell zone.
Just closed partial profits of second sell after previous one stopped out at BE.

Second one also running at BE +
But will stop adding sells for now up until 1405 gets broken......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #50,855
  • Jul 12, 2019 4:43am Jul 12, 2019 4:43am
Quoting letsride
Hi there, Hoping I could glean some information from your wise heads here. I am a frequent trader, mainly in the main forex pairs but I have been interest in Gold for some time now. I was wondering if you all could point me in the direction of some materials where I can learn more about Gold, how it moves, technical, fundamental, news etc. Any learning materials available out there either on this forum that you highly recommend or elsewhere. My plan long term, after I've learnt as much as I possibly can (I have plenty of time to do so), is to trade...
Hey bud.
Welcome to the family.
We have a mascot named Goldy or something like that......

To sum up what the others have already said, Spend some time looking at the charts. Looking at what price action does.

Gold moves. Both buyers and sellers can make money on a daily basis. But we need patience for our levels and an understanding of the levels....past couple of weeks there are certain key levels price has been respecting and behaving towards.....intra day wise it does the same thing over and over ...just need to be patient with it. Position size and patience will yield returns of some sort till youre comfortable enough..,..


Trade safe

Quoting MzansiObi
1410 handle strong sell zone. Just closed partial profits of second sell after previous one stopped out at BE. Second one also running at BE + But will stop adding sells for now up until 1405 gets broken......
1405 still holding..... hidden bullish RSI divergence on smaller time frames,possible spike up again before 1405 eventually breaks?
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #50,856
  • Jul 12, 2019 5:03am Jul 12, 2019 5:03am
I took Gold sell trades @1411.13 and 1408.68....Have taken profit..Yesterday was a good day so my new Cat is happy
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #50,857
  • Jul 12, 2019 5:10am Jul 12, 2019 5:10am
Quoting MzansiObi
1405 still holding..... hidden bullish RSI divergence on smaller time frames,possible spike up again before 1405 eventually breaks?
I wouldn't bet on it, according to my analysis the market should go "straight down" from here, it's possible we see a small rise until just under 1410,but i doubt it'll happen. I've sold at 1406. Both wave analysis and mp point to a "straight down", however price action doesn't agree, but in this case, i belive the weight of the first 2 is heavy enough for me to not believe the price will bounce at all.

If we take a look at a 4h chart , i'd expect a bounce up, however looking at lower timeframes (m30,h1) they all point to a "straight down" situation, another thing to note is that the trend is downwards for the following timeframes:M1,M30, H1,H4,D1 and it's up for: M5,M10.


However, we'll see, i've put my stop loss above 1410 just in case and i'm watching the market closely. I didn't set a take profit, but rather i'll watch the market and close the position when i see fit.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #50,858
  • Jul 12, 2019 5:30am Jul 12, 2019 5:30am
I do hope you are correct Vorenzd as I also have many longer term sell trades in place.......Only time will tell.
Good luck to us all.
R
Ronnie Renko
  • #50,859
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:03am Jul 12, 2019 6:03am
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} I wouldn't bet on it, according to my analysis the market should go "straight down" from here, it's possible we see a small rise until just under 1410,but i doubt it'll happen. I've sold at 1406. Both wave analysis and mp point to a "straight down", however price action doesn't agree, but in this case, i belive the weight of the first 2 is heavy enough for me to not believe the price will bounce at all. If we take a look at a 4h chart , i'd expect a bounce up, however looking at lower timeframes (m30,h1) they all point to a "straight down"...
I've closed my trade at 1407, the situation has become too uncertain for me, i will wait more for a better oprotunity... as @Eventstrader says: "Capital preservation first,then profits".
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #50,860
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:11am Jul 12, 2019 6:11am
I am seller as well today targetting anything below 1400
Extreme gut feeling trader
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