It is known fact that gold has consolidated in the range of 1180-1370 for 6 year now, we have a 6 year bottom in place at 1180.
There is now scenario we could see gold stay above 1200 for a decade from now seeing overall demand from central bankers and status gold has maintained so far.
If there is no downside as gold has failed to break lower, and I believe 6 years is enough consolidation, only one way remains.
Case 1 - RATE CUT
Markets along with gold head higher, bonds yields lower. All in support for gold along with falling USD.
Case 2 - No RATE CUT
Markets head lower, gold might give a small spike down if gold is at elevated levels till 19th.
Slowdown fear would still support gold and in a few weeks with falling markets gold would still head higher.
All thing considered, in run up to the FOMC rate decision of 19th June, if bond yield and USD heads lower, the break of Triple Top of 1365 in weekly, pre-post FOMC statement is the key level to watch.
We all know what happened when gold broke 1540 triple bottom on the downside.
I am not saying it is going to happen with certainty, but it would be worse if one is caught on the wrong side.
There is now scenario we could see gold stay above 1200 for a decade from now seeing overall demand from central bankers and status gold has maintained so far.
If there is no downside as gold has failed to break lower, and I believe 6 years is enough consolidation, only one way remains.
Case 1 - RATE CUT
Markets along with gold head higher, bonds yields lower. All in support for gold along with falling USD.
Case 2 - No RATE CUT
Markets head lower, gold might give a small spike down if gold is at elevated levels till 19th.
Slowdown fear would still support gold and in a few weeks with falling markets gold would still head higher.
All thing considered, in run up to the FOMC rate decision of 19th June, if bond yield and USD heads lower, the break of Triple Top of 1365 in weekly, pre-post FOMC statement is the key level to watch.
We all know what happened when gold broke 1540 triple bottom on the downside.
I am not saying it is going to happen with certainty, but it would be worse if one is caught on the wrong side.
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