XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Closed early at 1197. O.......O

Ideal short around 1212

music

it went to R61 made sume $$$ on d way Up = still holdin my shorts

with d fukkin rotschilds u got to B flexable 4 sure ppl

this will NOT matter much imho =

Friends, do not panic. Everything is all right. The D1 channel was crushed, but there is a hard to conquer fortress! The WEEKLY channel!

Upper weekly channel touch? Everywhere on the chart there is, one and only, sell timing signals + an Upper W1 channel touch = will return down and touch the D1 Median price of around 1193-1195. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow? Powell speaks today and tomorrow, too.

I knew it when both D1 Median lines get together, that is a receipt for a disaster... Honestly, I have no solution atm. I do not know how to handle this. This sudden upper movement was perfect for my old trading style, but I have abandoned it for many good reasons. Why take buy flips in a sell trend? That is simply stupid! But, we see, it would have worked fine today... Anyway. I will continue thinking what could be done, because I have no plan what to do in situations like this one. I am just facing the DD and waiting for the rate to drop, as it is pronounced on the chart already...

That is really cool, btw!

I was thinking to fully hedge the net signal lot, too. Just set some TP for the buys. Keep the sells open. Do not close them. Abandon the sells that have a corresponding buy hedge trade. Close by both, if the buy could not make it to a TP. Then, plenty of sells will have no corresponding hedging buy trades, as the buys have hit the TPs already. Make money from those sells, on the monthly sell trend...

In a long term, it will generate bigger income, still, drama DD moments like right now, seems unavoidable...

Jonny do u've skype or telegram , my PM ist open atm

Silver is still quite bullish and it broke out above 14.70, the question is whether it will break out above 15.00 too.

Tomorrow. I am dead tired for today. I will pm you when at office.

Hi

Looking the gold and COT report overlay, looking every time read line (commercial/producer) stop hedging their produce. Gold price went up.

Just want to hear your thought on this thread, whether why this happen fundamentally?

thanks,

I'd like to learn some of the intracies of trading Gold & this seems a good place
one thing I'm confused on -- pip value
if XAUUSD is quoted say 1200.00 & goes to 1205.00
my impression is that's $5 X 100c = 500 pips @ ~ USD10 per pip
seems far too high
XAU moves $5-10 some days so stops are therefore astronomical -- can't be right?

so what is the value of a $1.00 move
could someone put me on the right track please

thanks

Multiply by 10 not 100

It will fall down. I suppose not this week.

For going up, I also suppose:

A. There were few quite large private short orders, and/or:

B. It happens in 30% of the time, the rate goes with the sentiment and the buyers could make a buck or two, probably for a very last week, before they offer them a lot better prices to buy.

Charming! Thanks for the insight!
I really forgot about the mirroring...
Here is how I see it in D1. I think you are cutting short a whole week.

forecast

just to clarify it

a stoploss placed $5.50 away from entry price is in $ 55.0

seems too small

As expected, the price bounced down from the upper weekly channel. When that is the wrong side of the trend, that is simply obligatory...

Unfortunately, the bankers have formed one of these special kind of ranges, where they enjoy collecting SLs. 4 collected so far on most round levels. 4 SLs per level. That kind of range is difficult to brake. There are so many SLs in there. Why give it up so easily?

The TP vs SL ratio in that kind of range is 1 TP on every 6 SLs. When you trade, please do not forget to set your SL.

So, we will have to wait more for the fall. Today's lowest bottom should be around 1195 (the weekly average price). In about few days, the daily average price has to go around 1195 (from 1203 now). Guess what will happen?

Maybe we will get some help from a special kind of a friend?

Now is still a good moment to sell the gold. Just keep the trade open for 2-3 weeks at least. You will get like 40-50 bucks ahead of it, if you do so. Maybe even more than that...

UPDATE:

Because everything on the chart has to be nearly 50:50, I strongly do believe the current weekly candle to be anything different than a buy candle. They need more buy candles and now is a great opportunity to add one more in the 2018 sea of sell weekly candles.

Plus, making traders believe the gold is going north is also another good reason to stick to the weekly buy candle.

Another plus, the small 130-150 pips wide range we are at the moment is perfect for collecting SLs, now between 4 SLs (2 buy SLs and 2 sell SLs per level, for example) and 6 SLs were collected so far, per a round level.

So, hold on tight to your shorts and wait for the next week, likely. I bet this one will remain as a buy.

UPDATE II:

My Gold avg price has changed from 1190 (yesterday) to 1197.50 (some 28 hrs later).


This means, most of Oct'18 I will be looking at the Gold's rate from some respectful distance.

For the next 2-3 weeks, the Gold's price will stay ahead of my avg price... most of the time.

Congratulations to all the sellers, we will reap what we sow in 2-3 weeks time from now.

Silver bounced off from 14.90 and it may retrace back to 14.50. That said, the breakout in either direction likely depends on the fundamentals later this week.

Expect at least one more buy movement towards the daily averages at around 1200-1202 and a little bit higher. However, that will bring both daily averages together. This time around, pointing down. You do remember what had happened on Tuesday when both were together at 1190 and pointed North, right? It went up to 1208.

Both daily averages get together, pointing down? This is a reason for MZ to party!

The 2 weeks long road to 1160 will be soon opened.

UPDATE I

I think the lowest it can go today is somewhere around 1193/4. Maybe it will bounce up, from this TL.

Getting more buyers on the hook was never a bad idea. Sellers/Bankers profits are being paid by the Buyers losses.

It's funny how it keeps hitting yellow target but i always exit too early.

I think it's a good idea to close metatrader and do something else when you get break even.

Currently bullish next target at 1212 then sell from there.

Or may reverse back around 1193 within the next few hours.

keep it safe

Monthly NFP in last than an hour.

As per my analysis on day chart, it may go towards 1240 before making a new low in the month of december.
Reason being, it has already made double bottom at 1182 and been consolidating between 1212 and 1190 range for a month, very soon it may break this consolidation towards north.

I respect your oppinion. Maybe 1240 will come first? We shall see this soon.

My opinion, as a pathological gambler, which I really am, is they have no intention to drive her to 1240. If they had that impulse, they would simply do it. In the exact same way and manner they drove her down from 1300-1350 to 1200-1160.

Nearly 5 weeks already, since the 24 Aug heroic buy movement, she is going nowhere. Not up for sure. Not yet.

I read their intention on the chart is to continue more South.

Maybe Nov'18 will be one more sell month, too?

Try to think what is the least expected thing to happen?

There are 60% buyers on myfxbook vs 40% sellers.

Oanda is like 77% buyers vs 23% sellers.

cTrader data is 67% buyers vs 33% sellers.

It seems, most of the traders do expect she is about to go up. Is really she?

My gambling instinct tells me, I should gamble on the fewer positions. Because that is the least expected to happen...

As you perfectly well know, in trading, the majority always wins!

However, as a clinically proven gambler, I do choose to stay with the losing minority, i.e. the sellers.