I'm Long, it's a silly long.. but still long. lol
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2016 | 1,824 Posts
dont forget or Ignore FX_Rule #1 to stay profitable 
da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
{quote} I was simply there. As a believer. I know how they feel. I was obviously wrong. It is just a growth issue. I was hoping there are successful traders out there. That was once. Some time ago. Now I know the below or around 10 pips .....
Some weeks ago he said that he wanted to go home, does he already reach his home ?? So far i know, he is in vacation at North pole now, so he is just making a Joke at the moment, or he will really spend a looong time there in this vacation ?
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
{quote} Speaking of 9 trading days, stock market has been going up for past 6 days. VIX has fallen back below 200sma earlier. So who knows? Everything's great and back to business? Lol
As far as equity markets go, i only track the DOW, i dont look at others... the DOW is the biggest index of them all (within the smallest asset class in the world)
IMHO, theres no crash coming, and all the people who are positioned for a 50% selloff and conspiracy theorists will have their faces torn off.
first half of the year we consolidate. as we have been. on the DOW, the key level is the low from February 23300; as long as we hold above that, the bears are burning through time... we would have a correction not in price, but in time.
Second half of the year, i expect to see a test of the Jan high, and maybe even break out to a new all time high
the short vol guys who got smashed, i have no sympathy for them... it was an overcrowded trade, using synthetics that they didnt understand, its like a drunk man driving 100 miles to get home with his foot pressed down on the gas peddle... its just a matter of time!
anytime a market starts going parabolic, you need to pay attention... just ask the bitcoin crew!
its a bit like whats going on the DXY complex atm
the party will end badly for those who take positions without understanding why and how they are affected, and if you dont know why you did it or what to look for in other asset markets, you wont know when the fundamental basis has changed!
just my two cents
i hope XAU retraces a bit today so i can load up on this long... starting to get impatient!!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
the DHT, which cycle analysis are you following for Dow Jones ? Tony Plummer (The law of vibration): 3.5 years https://harriman-house.com/the-law-of-vibration or Cyclesman Tim Wood: 4 years https://www.cyclesman.com/wp-content...le-charts-.pdf Sixer {image} {image}
I kinda have my own system, nothing complicated, but i believe every market has its own frequency
I am a bit familiar with Tim Wood (and others), but i have been experimenting with cycles for several years myself and trying to understand time
Sometimes cycles invert, and what should be a high turns into a low... in such situations, theres a bigger alignment occurring
Cycles are all great, but you cannot trade off them... we still need an empiricle method for entry/exit and bias confirmation
the following is a chart of DOW futures i built a few years ago.
YM WEEKLY
you can see that the cycles hit almost perfectly in many cases, but the February selloff stopped right on the upper limit of the channel after breaking through it and going parabolic.
a channel that has been in force for 8 years getting broken this way inst a small deal, it implies that theres activity in other asset markets that we need to watch
in order for there to be a significant downside risk to US equity markets, specifically the DOW, we would need to see that line get taken out
additionally, the cycle target for October last year "should" have been a high, but it was not... it tagged a continuation and transition into a parabola... which means we expect the low in September... which IMHO will be a higher low and then we explode higher into Xmas
this is more art than science as you know... im still learning and playing with this system, but its made me money for many years... i will also admit to having gotten my fingers badly burnt trading cycles blindly back when i first started experimenting with time... which is why today i take a more nuanced approach to trading with time
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2016 | 1,824 Posts
dont forget or Ignore FX_Rule #1 to stay profitable
= Update , workin d plan - will bank 4pos. @TP1 bla bla2
da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2016 | 1,824 Posts
dont forget or Ignore FX_Rule #1 to stay profitable
ooops wrong thread
da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber