IMM Positioning - EUR Longs Extended Further
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank
| Mon Jul 04 11 07:18 ET
" The latest IMM data cover the week from 21-28 June.
Non-commercial investors added to long positions in EUR following the passing of the confidence vote for Greek PM Papandreou. Hence, long positioning as a share of open interest rose to 18 percent during the week covered by the data. Note that the data were collected ahead of the successful austerity votes and the subsequent rise in EUR/USD to levels above 1.45, meaning that EUR long positioning is likely to have been extended further than the data suggest. By implication, positioning is likely to leave EUR with some downside risks."
Short GBP positions were extended, following the dovish minutes from the Bank of England. Notably, the fact that some MPC members saw risks of more bond purchases being needed helped sent GBP/USD towards the 1.60 mark and caused short positioning to reach nearly 18 percent of open interest.
Despite US data remaining on the weak side during the week covered by the data (e.g. initial jobless claims and consumer confidence), the slightly hawkish tone in the 22 June FOMC statement (see Flash) helped send the dollar index higher. As the Fed showed no signs of further stimulus measures being imminent, traders reduced USD shorts and further JPY longs were unwound.
Analysis | Commodity Technical Analysis | Written by Danske Bank
| Mon Jul 04 11 07:18 ET
" The latest IMM data cover the week from 21-28 June.
Non-commercial investors added to long positions in EUR following the passing of the confidence vote for Greek PM Papandreou. Hence, long positioning as a share of open interest rose to 18 percent during the week covered by the data. Note that the data were collected ahead of the successful austerity votes and the subsequent rise in EUR/USD to levels above 1.45, meaning that EUR long positioning is likely to have been extended further than the data suggest. By implication, positioning is likely to leave EUR with some downside risks."
Short GBP positions were extended, following the dovish minutes from the Bank of England. Notably, the fact that some MPC members saw risks of more bond purchases being needed helped sent GBP/USD towards the 1.60 mark and caused short positioning to reach nearly 18 percent of open interest.
Despite US data remaining on the weak side during the week covered by the data (e.g. initial jobless claims and consumer confidence), the slightly hawkish tone in the 22 June FOMC statement (see Flash) helped send the dollar index higher. As the Fed showed no signs of further stimulus measures being imminent, traders reduced USD shorts and further JPY longs were unwound.
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