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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,461
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:30am Apr 11, 2011 3:30am
There is a bearish pinbar formed on the 4H chart closed behind 41.50.
41.50 - round number that is.
  • #4,462
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:33am Apr 11, 2011 3:33am
Quoting six gun
There is a bearish pinbar formed on the 4H chart closed behind 41.50.
41.50 - round number that is.

Was thinking about shorting over the weekend - not for me on anything but the shortest timeframes.

Think of it this way - if you turned the silver chart upside down you would see a market in freefall. Would you buy it?

beeb
  • #4,463
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:45am Apr 11, 2011 3:45am
Quoting beeb
Was thinking about shorting over the weekend - not for me on anything but the shortest timeframes.

Think of it this way - if you turned the silver chart upside down you would see a market in freefall. Would you buy it?

beeb
does a bear shit in the woods It has looked like that since 36,38,40,41
  • #4,464
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:02am Apr 11, 2011 4:02am
Quoting beeb
Was thinking about shorting over the weekend - not for me on anything but the shortest timeframes.

Think of it this way - if you turned the silver chart upside down you would see a market in freefall. Would you buy it?

beeb
Hi beeb.
I had a go drawing a pitchfork on the 4H. Regular Andrew's
The ABC are (A) swing low on 27/28th Jan. around 26.32
(B) is on 7th March at 36.79.
(C) 33.62 on 15th March.

It looks to be working ok.

Price has hit the median line twice now and been rejected.
Hugging the lower parallel much of the time otherwise.

How does that look to you?
Suggests from my PF price will go back to the lower parallel so ???? to go down through $40 which is my BRN. Might just avoid breaking $40 but it could be close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ag.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #4,465
  • Edited 4:31am Apr 11, 2011 4:06am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting six gun
Hi beeb.
I had a go drawing a pitchfork on the 4H. Regular Andrew's
The ABC are (A) swing low on 27/28th Jan. around 26.32
(B) is on 7th March at 36.79.
(C) 33.62 on 15th March.

It looks to be working ok.

Price has hit the median line twice now and been rejected.
Hugging the lower parallel much of the time otherwise.

How does that look to you?
Suggests from my PF price will go back to the lower parallel so ???? to go down through $40 which is my BRN. Might just avoid breaking $40 but it could be close.

Suggest you move your C point forward slightly to the next low (that's the "art" lol)......

What it "suggests" is that there is current resistance, and that if there is a retracement where you might expect to find support.....You have an up-sloping fork there is no inference from it that price will go DOWN, all it says is where you might find upside RESISTANCE and downside SUPPORT. In order for there to be an inference that price will go DOWN you need resistance from a downsloping fork.....

beeb
  • #4,466
  • Edited 4:31am Apr 11, 2011 4:14am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting beeb
Suggest you move your C point forward slightly to the next low (that's the "art" lol)......

beeb
My C in the image is at the lower low but agreed looking closer at it, the trend does actually change at the swing low you advocate should be C.

Just it fitted the candles better with the C on the wick as in my chart image.
We then have a slightly snugger fit of bars along the lower parallel and spot on rejection from the median line.

There's art in the application of science.

Even with a mini sliding parallel at the median line it has been rejected.
I agree the trend is strongly bullish and other than shorter time frames going blindly short will likely burn you.
If/when it pulled back it will be clear enough and this tiny pinbar is certainly not enough.
  • #4,467
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:32am Apr 11, 2011 4:32am
#4589 edited

beeb
  • #4,468
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:38am Apr 11, 2011 4:38am
Quoting beeb
Suggest you move your C point forward slightly to the next low (that's the "art" lol)......

What it "suggests" is that there is current resistance, and that if there is a retracement where you might expect to find support.....You have an up-sloping fork there is no inference from it that price will go DOWN, all it says is where you might find upside RESISTANCE and downside SUPPORT. In order for there to be an inference that price will go DOWN you need resistance from a downsloping fork.....

beeb
Well looking at my amateur fork I would say we have resistance at the median line - on horizontal support/resistance this is 41.50 and a pinbar has formed.
Confluence of signs.

Target would be the lower quartile. Not drawn in (but will) but by eye price has reacted to this level in the fork.

Currently no indication (yet) that price is falling out the lower side of the fork - so no indication this lady is for turning at the moment.

Fork is strongly bullish still.
  • #4,469
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:44am Apr 11, 2011 4:44am
Quoting six gun
Well looking at my amateur fork I would say we have resistance at the median line - on horizontal support/resistance this is 41.50 and a pinbar has formed.
Confluence of signs.

Target would be the lower quartile. Not drawn in (but will) but by eye price has reacted to this level in the fork.

Currently no indication (yet) that price is falling out the lower side of the fork - so no indication this lady is for turning at the moment.

Fork is strongly bullish still.
Point of info - a quartile is midway between the Median line and the Upper or Lower Parallel - you have not marked them on your chart. I assume you are referring to the Lower Parallel.....

The continued bullishness or otherwise of the fork will be gauged when/where the next low is made.

beeb
  • #4,470
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:47am Apr 11, 2011 4:47am
Found this Pitchfork Indicator. You place the regular MT4 pitchfork, but you rename it AL1 the you place the AML Indicator on the chart and it will overlay over the original pitchfork. You can do schiff and kinds of stuff with it.

There is thread somewhere describing all the features here on FF.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AML_v1.mq4   24 KB | 551 downloads
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,471
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:53am Apr 11, 2011 4:53am
SI 1 min chart with Modified Schiff to show how smaller timeframes can work.....

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZnT37cl3ivp


beeb
  • #4,472
  • Edited 5:07am Apr 11, 2011 4:57am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting beeb
Point of info - a quartile is midway between the Median line and the Upper or Lower Parallel - you have not marked them on your chart. I assume you are referring to the Lower Parallel.....

The continued bullishness or otherwise of the fork will be gauged when/where the next low is made.

beeb
No I meant the lower quartile (not marked in on the chart posted). Price in its lazy sinusoidal move higher has "acknowledged" the quartile by flattening out and candles srinking - just happens this was around $36 and $40 so to be expected.
Price has never been rejected by the lower quartile true so may well snake its way through it almost as if it is not there.

The test to what next will of course be how price reacts to the lower parallel (if it gets there).
If there is a run of bearish candles taking it across the fork the momentum is potentially there.
  • #4,473
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:07am Apr 11, 2011 5:07am
Quoting ruidys
its time for short gold?
sorry just nubie in gold market
what about this???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bbbbbbbbbbbbbbb.JPG Size: 70 KB
  • #4,474
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:13am Apr 11, 2011 5:13am
Plotted the 1 minute fork on my chart.
Cool

It has just broken through $41...

I can see price hesitating, pulling back - you can almost see the orders sat just above and below $41.00
  • #4,475
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:37am Apr 11, 2011 5:37am
Quoting ruidys
what about this???
Beautiful! Is it Juan Miro or Kandinsky?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,476
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:45am Apr 11, 2011 5:45am
Quoting harvest3r
Beautiful! Is it Juan Miro or Kandinsky?

or candleinsky
  • #4,477
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:16am Apr 11, 2011 8:16am


------------

No shorts unless 1450 breaks.

Quoting harvest3r
Beautiful! Is it Juan Miro or Kandinsky?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,478
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:44am Apr 11, 2011 8:44am
Gold bubble??

This was posted on another forum. Haven't a chance to watch yet because I don't use my trading PC for anything but trading.

Inserted Video
  • #4,479
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:48am Apr 11, 2011 8:48am
With ending of the Lybian conflict on the horizon, the sell off is more and more likely...
  • #4,480
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:11am Apr 11, 2011 9:11am
Quoting Fmfx
With ending of the Lybian conflict on the horizon, the sell off is more and more likely...

...and of course the end of QE. Oh, wait a minute.......

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