XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread | Page 1122 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

Gold/USD, Silver/USD

Similar Threads

Gold futures & XAU 78 replies

GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD) 51 replies

Daytrade - XAU/USD & XAG/USD 14 replies

XAU/JPY & XAG/JPY 13 replies

Successful XAU/USD traders 7 replies

Attachments: XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
Exit Attachments

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,421
  • Jan 19, 2013 2:25am Jan 19, 2013 2:25am
Spreads can widen to dozens for gold and hundreds for silver. So you better have it right right away.

Quoting ivars
Sorry about a question here , but is Oanda a good fx trading company for XAG, XAU pairs?
Patience is magic
  • #22,422
  • Jan 19, 2013 2:27am Jan 19, 2013 2:27am
On Longer term charts like the daily and weekly I use SMAs due to the more smoooth and decise areas of support, EMAs are better to show more exact average price and work better on shorter term charts. IMO.

Now, Here is your problem using SMAs and More Time - the weekly.

The price has been sort of riding a top the 100 sma
It is well above the 200
And has Just pierced again and closed above the 50..................

You are asking about relatively small price movements here to be using a daily chart, so I'm not sure what your goal is.

A long opened at 1680 and closed at 1710 to then just flip flop bias and go short why?
After a 30 USD move?
The price can move 20 / 30 to 50 In a single day on high volume and news.

One thing I would keep in mind is that if the price takes out 1700 psych and then guns more toward the 1750 stronger resistance area, you then have a 70 USD move which is a nice trade and more of a possibility of a small short.

Yet, why go short if you are already in profit and the price will likely just correct a tad and then break 1750 on the way back up? No point. IMO. Then your chances of getting in at a safe area are very poor and your stop cannot be with a nice locked profit.

Take a look at the first chart that I posted just now. You are forgetting all that price action.
Also think about how long or what your goal of each trade is, then you may consider using different charts.

Food for thought.

Quoting hbkarakas
Hi all,

Gold closed the week above 1.68x, but below the 100 days EMA and above the 200days EMA (on daily),
So i guess it's has not been decided which way to go now..

When we look at daily chart there are some resistances,

1.695 area (50 days MA)
1.700 resistance leve
and the last peaks resistance level around 1.710

1.695 was tried before and couldn't succeed to break..

I don't have enough information to comment more about which is the estimated area to trigger resistance. 1.695 or 1.700 or 1.710 ?
In the charts 1.710 seems...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold weekly reversal 1 13 IDEA 3.GIF Size: 83 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,423
  • Jan 19, 2013 3:36am Jan 19, 2013 3:36am
Quoting beeb
Remember that Monday is a NY holiday...

beeb
Thanks for bringing this up.

Im not American, thus I am foreign to these holidays. May I enquire what is NY holiday? Is it Martin Luther King Jr holiday in New York?

I will exercise caution on such holidays..
  • #22,424
  • Edited 5:44am Jan 19, 2013 5:34am | Edited 5:44am
Very important development of mid term fundamentals that brings support under the idea I floated earlier that US fiscal situation resolution will drag on till July-August 2013 (with different backing I did, but that is not so important as one can not predict concrete politician moves, what matters is the effect of their actions) , inducing uncertainty in PM markets till then:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-increase.html

Quote
House Republicans Plan Three-Month Debt-Limit Increase


House Republicans revised their strategy for the coming months’ fiscal debate with Democrats, saying they’ll agree to a three-month debt-limit increase without demanding spending cuts as part of the deal.
Instead, Republicans will use the planned Jan. 23 House vote on a debt-ceiling increase to try to force Senate Democrats to adopt a budget to spell
This coincides with possible continuation of upward trend in PMs till March while delaying the resolution of correction triangle till June- July-August, as some here including me have been speculating all along if for different reasons, but anyhow related to debt and fiscal future development issues. VERY significant change in short term fundamentals.
If this passes as they say, this correction triangle becomes a must to close before any further take on direction. Which in the meantime means lower highs and higher lows.


http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/790/i...iontriangl.png

Opportunities for stacking- until June-July, then, if USG fiscal situation does not improve ( why should it-austerity?) or worsens (e.g. war) , PM shall start next leg up as USG debt will be guaranteed to increase with renewed vigor and clear future projections of debt growth.
This resolution might coincide with a change of trend peak in bond prices to down, slowly starting to cause inflationary effects and slow interest rate increases leaving debt cancellation at one stage as the only tool to stop it. But that is years away, at least 2-3.
  • #22,425
  • Jan 19, 2013 6:43am Jan 19, 2013 6:43am
Ivars

I'm impressed with your faith in markets behaving rationally......

beeb
  • #22,426
  • Jan 19, 2013 7:08am Jan 19, 2013 7:08am
Quoting beeb
Ivars

I'm impressed with your faith in markets behaving rationally......

beeb
Well only to the extent gold price monitors the loss of trust in USG debt based fiat system which correlates up to 0,94 if I am not wrong with USG debt development and is also logical. The more debt there is , and is projected to be in future, the lower the trust will be. That is rational.

As to short term over and undershooting, that is also rational. since it happens always, so are predictable. I have to be humble but I predicted silver and gold bubbles on correspondingly March 13 and May 5 2011 , for silver with accurate price target ( but one month early , for gold with accurate timing), also silver September crash in same March 13th prediction. So markets, even if they seem not to behave rationally, behave predictably once one can identify the setup ( e.g. bubble is predictable in most cases, the exact top time and value is more difficult). And the more you know, the less you can predicts until may be you can again, with better understanding. Not sure

Here are links to charts I made in 2011 believing markets will behave as they should, but then I did not trade and did not use the charts myself ( i bet no one else used as well, obscure place). Later they found out these, after September crash, in TF metals, so I got involved and started to trade August 2012 only accumulating, October 2012 moved in to day trading as I lost what I made in September-October due to thinking silver has taken off after 2011 april crash. No, the tail is longer. Also much longer than i epxected in my predictions although i was pretty conservative compared to metal crowd ( Autumn 2012) - but it in reality will be Autumn 2013. 2,5 years is the silver market characteristic time to fully damp out impulse disturbances as after 2008 so after 2013 and return to exp growth following USG debt (with bigger volatility than gold). 2,5 years- Its a characteristic of this market. We are in for a bubble again from Autumn 2013.

Check out if interested:

Silver (made March 13, 2011):
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/images/cleardot.gif
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopi...tart=50#p31020
Gold: (made May 5, 2011):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopi...art=230#p32176
  • #22,427
  • Jan 19, 2013 9:33am Jan 19, 2013 9:33am
Quoting XTrade
Here is some super simple TA using two lines, we need to remember where the price has come from,
It is not just "in a mini downward channel" with no prior highs, supports or history.

There is also a lot of forgetting about this important and lengthy rising TL usually seems to be left out from most charts posted.

Look at how the price cupped right in at the cross of the two. At the actual cross the bar was indecisive and we turned back up. To me this is looking like the beginning of a new minor trend in the larger trend returning up.

But we...
Hi Xtrade you beat me to putting up that chart. Thanks for your excellent input and trading examples

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #22,428
  • Jan 19, 2013 10:50am Jan 19, 2013 10:50am
Don't be sorry always good to share broker opinions here for these pairs.

I would demo them and see. I don't know cause I only demoed once, and did not like that they called pips units I remember.

I think FXCM (NO AFFILIATION) may be more to your liking if you are NON US,

Quoting ivars
Sorry about a question here , but is Oanda a good fx trading company for XAG, XAU pairs?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,429
  • Jan 19, 2013 10:58am Jan 19, 2013 10:58am
Another way to look at your chart is what I posted last night with gold and now here with silver,
Is to consider the MAJOR DTL Oficially broken and now ON TEST. Due to the fact that when the line was drawn after some time and using at least 3 points of connection it did breach,
and
again,
Like the case with gold although the silver price seems to be either dropping or going sideways,
It still has yet to rebreak or fall under the same broken DTL which is almost support at this point,
And now we are at the cusp of where the bottom line - longer TL (for this chart I just threw in an estimation of where it should be -
We are going to hit the RISING TL. Perhaps picking up the price, and supporting a good time to test a long.
Low risk high reward.


Quoting ivars
Very important development of mid term fundamentals that brings support under the idea I floated earlier that US fiscal situation resolution will drag on till July-August 2013 (with different backing I did, but that is not so important as one can not predict concrete politician moves, what matters is the effect of their actions) , inducing uncertainty in PM markets till then:

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/790/i...iontriangl.png
...................... interest rate increases leaving debt cancellation at one stage as the...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver weekly reversal 1 13 IDEA 3.GIF Size: 70 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,430
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:00am Jan 19, 2013 11:00am
IN Both case study charts Gold and silver, it appears that now that the time scale has passed the cross of the two lines the price is supported again by the lower ASCENDING TL, instead of testing down the top of the old DTL
There is no more DTL to follow if you look at it like this.
BUT ALAS _ ANYTHING GOES and CAN HAPPEN IN THE MARKET>
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,431
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:09am Jan 19, 2013 11:09am
Quoting XTrade
Don't be sorry always good to share broker opinions here for these pairs.

I would demo them and see. I don't know cause I only demoed once, and did not like that they called pips units I remember.

I think FXCM (NO AFFILIATION) may be more to your liking if you are NON US,
Thanks, I am NON US. Will look at what you suggest. Being able to open account without sending letters and passport copies to and fro is also important, as is withdrawal. I looked at Swissquote, send all the nice papers, and their letter back with password got lost, so now there is more hassle, need to call them and discuss the address, but during that time I have lost interest in them, actually. Except that they are Swiss, so will get bust after Japanese

As to charts I totally agree that the direction up is chosen again, most likely above 29 ( silver) but interim there will be oscilations in the triangle which will continue until sharp outbreak in positive direction after the end of all budget etc disputes. So Jan-July it seems could be more profitable to also trade shorter term ( few months) up down oscillations in the range 29-34 I think. May be 30-34. There could also be - just because of a character of the movements before breakout up - a move below the triangle for a short period which would mean a possibility to go below 30 even in June.

Now when it finally makes a break in the direction up after summer, it will be a good one. May develop a bubble, may be just exp growth depending on balancing factors vs debt increase, like the increase in value of any of 5 assets the US has for backing of the USD.
  • #22,432
  • Edited 11:46am Jan 19, 2013 11:25am | Edited 11:46am
my pivot is 1715... 1635 is fatal broken and 1595 is not visited... 1675 is last home... and can visit home again for something... after making normalisation image comes some fakes than comes real direction...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: im2.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1715.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #22,433
  • Jan 19, 2013 11:36am Jan 19, 2013 11:36am
Checked FXCM. UK site. For silver, leverage 1:200, which is exceptional -might be good for small account, might be dangerous, min account 50 USD ( well I have a bit more) , that is fine, min lot 50 Oz, OK, targeted spread - 0,05 ( 5 cents) = 50 USD per 1000 Oz lot, that is high. Oanda was offering like 0,025 cents,floating(?) , but only 1:50 leverage. Currently I have 1:33 leverage and 0,06 spread and +20 USD open/close cost, so worst of both worlds, I think- but instant money transfer in/out account from my bank account. No delays, no questions, no mistakes. Local support . For long trade accumulating I would choose where I am, but for short term things what I am doing now they are too expensive.

And I think Oanda allowed to sign in electronically without paper work, but may be not from Latvia, though its EU. I think there are no position execution costs on both Oanda and FXCM.
  • #22,434
  • Edited 12:35pm Jan 19, 2013 12:23pm | Edited 12:35pm
This is how I approximately see exponential top and bottom lines developing on a linear chart. To project the RED lines which would mark the next move up in silver in quite wide range ( volatility, bubbles) , one have to take the slope of chart in USD/year and calculate the value in e.g January 1st of 2014 for top RED line ( bottom is around 45-46) would be about 100 which would be a bubble value. The rest of the range is possible, with average 72 USD/oz. As one can see, the price can be in between, but also at the top line of the current range - a bubble- or bottom-normal growth before bubble or lows after a correction. The is no way to compress silver volatility much as prices increase - so in % it reduces somewhat, but in absolute numbers increases enormously.

The first expansion starts around 4-4,5 USD and goes to 20- approx 4,5-5 times, than falls to 10- 2 times, then moves to 49 - 4,9 times increase, then drops to 26 - almost 2 times drop. So the next top line more correctly will be around 26* 4,5= 117, the next bottom in the correction AFTER the next top- around 57. That is I think realistic trading range for next 3 years, as long a USG debt continues to grow exponentially and undermine trust in USG bond based international fiat monetary system.

The first cycle was 6 years long (bottom line) , second- approx 4 years, 3rd will be around 2,6 years- they get shorter due to the exp rise of price- so the next breakout on bottom line could happen around second half of 2015 - so the bubble will most likely happen in early to mid 2014. Start in July -August 2013 and build up till Feb- May 2014. Then break like a rocket.

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/4...ndbottomli.png
  • #22,435
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:30pm Jan 19, 2013 12:30pm
If someone says NY holiday they are likely just trying to say US, due to the fact that NY is the Major trading zone in the US.

So they mean a US holiday b/c we call the US session NY.
Quoting Pluvius
Thanks for bringing this up.

Im not American, thus I am foreign to these holidays. May I enquire what is NY holiday? Is it Martin Luther King Jr holiday in New York?

I will exercise caution on such holidays..
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,436
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:32pm Jan 19, 2013 12:32pm
In respect to timing, I'd say that soon we should be expecting a somewhat dramatic rise in price. Possibly to test the 55 area in the coming months that you seem to have outlined.

Quoting ivars
This is how I approximately see exponential top and bottom lines developing on a linear chart. To project the RED lines which would mark the next move up in silver in quite wide range ( volatility, bubbles) , one have to take the slope of chart in USD/year and calculate the value in e.g January 1st of 2014 for top RED line ( bottom is around 45-46) would be about 100 which would be a bubble value. The rest of the range is possible, with average 72 USD/oz. As one can see, the price can be in between, but also at the top line of the current range...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,437
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:35pm Jan 19, 2013 12:35pm
What is this drop with an arc and why have you decided on this as a path for the price?

Quoting prototip
my pivot is 1715... 1635 is fatal broken and 1595 is not visited... 1675 is last home... and can visit home again for something... after making normalisation image comes some fakes than comes real direction...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,438
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:51pm Jan 19, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting XTrade
What is this drop with an arc and why have you decided on this as a path for the price?
which price? i didnt decide anything.. sorry but my english bad... can u ask with simply words again, if u want...
  • #22,439
  • Jan 19, 2013 1:09pm Jan 19, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting XTrade
In respect to timing, I'd say that soon we should be expecting a somewhat dramatic rise in price. Possibly to test the 55 area in the coming months that you seem to have outlined.
Yes, it will be drastic. Still think not faster then July the move starts, but sometimes triangles are broken out before reaching the end ( then its just a wedge).
  • #22,440
  • Edited Jan 20, 2013 2:05am Jan 19, 2013 11:32pm | Edited Jan 20, 2013 2:05am
a very pivotal moment indeed ... will the BigBoys decide on a double bottom or continue playing the range ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldpro2001.png Size: 23 KB
92 traders viewing now