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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #20,821
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:43pm Sep 8, 2012 7:43pm
Am I right or wrong for thinking that QE 3 is being or has been "priced in" quietly? Somehow I am beginning to feel that the much anticipated QE 3 might in fact hurt some traders expecting too much of a bull run on the onset of QE 3.
  • #20,822
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:12pm Sep 8, 2012 8:12pm
Wouldn't worry about the FOMC too much the market is strongly trending, whatever happens will likely push GOLD up or down, within a range maybe 20 maybe 50 and then level off leaving the day at close with the open price or near (edit done)

However, if it is again bearish or "dovish" news expect another blast north. With no questions asked.

[quote=jimobiwan;5996145]
Quoting XTrade
OK ------I am going to ASSUME that most of the posters here WENT SHORT before the news anticipating

A. A positive outcome
B. A retracement

I could not be at the computer at NFP time so i closed all new longs at 1695 and played via mobile phone.

I got longs back on at 1710.

As we are above the 18dma i just let the core longs run.

So not quite entered a short - just temporarily stood aside.

Unfortunately will be on a holiday trip again next week and unable to see or play the FMOC result.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,823
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:16pm Sep 8, 2012 8:16pm
WOW, you waited that long then closed! I feel your pain but, I believe the unemployment number was also poor, along with the NFP, so that is "like" double shite unemployment....

We can probably look back and find the number.

Buy on dip.....


Quoting jaimini
I made a blunder yesterday.
I was long at 1692 and my 6 months old long at 1712 and 10 months long at 1793.
I saw it shooting because of NFP and since unemployment rate is dropped I thought 1712 will act as a resistance for now
I closed my 2 longs (1692,1712) and entered short at 1712 but whoosh i made a wrong decision because of unemployment rate.

i'll wait for retracement next week and will close short and will enter long again.
we will see atleat 1790-1800 within next 2 weeks and If QE3 then will see new all time high
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,824
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:18pm Sep 8, 2012 8:18pm
Perhaps, you may have some "pricing in" yet on the actual announcement which I believe will not happen if necessary until after the election in the USA. Gold could easily blow right into the 1800s.

Quoting Tsotsi
Am I right or wrong for thinking that QE 3 is being or has been "priced in" quietly? Somehow I am beginning to feel that the much anticipated QE 3 might in fact hurt some traders expecting too much of a bull run on the onset of QE 3.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,825
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:19pm Sep 8, 2012 8:19pm


I think he is saying he sees a bullish gartley or "butterfly" that should propel gold up/

What I don't understand is that even if this is a silver chart ALL MAJOR DTLs have been BROKEN.

They do not appear to be in the chart.
Quoting musclemike
...somebody should understand something from that, but definitely not me...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,826
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:22pm Sep 8, 2012 8:22pm
ONE CANNOT Draw a trendline without at LEAST TWO POINTS OF INTEREST.

Thus your top DOWN TREND line (DTL) and likely the one under it are completely invalid.

Where is the origin? It looks like silver but I am unsure.



Quoting alex_a_342
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/733/xagusd.png
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,827
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:23pm Sep 8, 2012 8:23pm
Please post a bigger chart. Thanks.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,828
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:27pm Sep 8, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting XTrade
Perhaps, you may have some "pricing in" yet on the actual announcement which I believe will not happen if necessary until after the election in the USA. Gold could easily blow right into the 1800s.
Very interesting, thanks XTrade. I don't know much about the political side of financial markets in the USA. Do you know any special reasons why QE 3 might not happen until the election in the USA? Or is it just QE 3 might be a very bitter pill for some, to swallow?
  • #20,829
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:16pm Sep 8, 2012 10:16pm
Silver Weekly Close charts:


http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

think this is live for all hours first one. ____ second one I took a screenshot to remember the close in it's post.

Quoting XTrade
Bam !

Horrible NFP - Poor Unemployment =

A NICE 50 USD BREAK!

4000 to 5000 PIPS IN A DAY!

Now we are getting back to the days of old. (not that old just last year)

Let's see silver next
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,830
  • Sep 9, 2012 2:49am Sep 9, 2012 2:49am
Quoting XTrade
WOW, you waited that long then closed! I feel your pain but, I believe the unemployment number was also poor, along with the NFP, so that is "like" double shite unemployment....

We can probably look back and find the number.

Buy on dip.....
Thanks X

yes i knew it will come back.
since march I made 5% profit in gold
so for me holding this trade for 6 months was good

yes I'll close short and buy now on dip
both fundis and technicals showing 1800 on board atleast
  • #20,831
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:21am Sep 9, 2012 5:21am
heh, you are very patient person
  • #20,832
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:05am Sep 9, 2012 10:05am
Quoting Tsotsi
...Do you know any special reasons why QE 3 might not happen until the election in the USA? Or is it just QE 3 might be a very bitter pill for some, to swallow?
Well...when QE will be announced officially, it will a big fall for the usd along with the increasing prices in commodities and food prices, inflation will increase etc...a fall of the dollar at the end of an administration would mean a political suicide, that's why they're trying to postpone this QE as much as possible. The interesting thing is: if Romney will be elected he said he will replace Bernanke so ...we actually might see a QE before election.


P.S. I repeat myself: either way...with or without a QE gold will go higher...i think we will see 1950-2000 this year...at 2100 i start closing positions and start buying on dips...
  • #20,833
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:27am Sep 9, 2012 10:27am
Comments made inside your quote in blue.

Quoting musclemike
Well...when QE will be announced officially, it will a big fall for the usd along with the increasing prices in commodities and food prices, inflation will increase etc...a fall of the dollar at the end of an administration would mean a political suicide, TRUE that's why they're trying to postpone this QE as much as possible. The interesting thing is: if Romney will be elected he said he will replace Bernanke so ...we actually might see a QE before election.
 [color="blue"]I'm shite sure he will. Interesting...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,834
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:28am Sep 9, 2012 10:28am
http://www.wavetimes.com/elliott-wav...#comment-36085
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  • #20,835
  • Sep 9, 2012 2:57pm Sep 9, 2012 2:57pm
I repeat myself: either way...with or without a QE gold will go higher...i think we will see 1950-2000 this year...at 2100 i start closing positions and start buying on dips...[/quote]

me 2 think like that,...but will buy it phisicly(and sold it, then rebuy)... slowly 4-6 times... p.s. its not taxed here.
its just money
  • #20,836
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:51pm Sep 9, 2012 7:51pm
Little confused here, I understand your plan but would start at.......... now.

Who was quoted?

And where is HERE?

Quoting de123
I repeat myself: either way...with or without a QE gold will go higher...i think we will see 1950-2000 this year...at 2100 i start closing positions and start buying on dips...
me 2 think like that,...but will buy it phisicly(and sold it, then rebuy)... slowly 4-6 times... p.s. its not taxed here.[/quote]
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,837
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:26pm Sep 9, 2012 9:26pm
I just noticed something technically on the monthly that could be potentially, well I don't know what else to say besides target 3600+ appx GOLD per OZT.

Chart below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,838
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:52pm Sep 9, 2012 9:52pm
XTrade,
I know a lot of traders use trendlines such as yourself, but does the subjective-ness of trendlines like the chart below bother you the same way it bothers me?

Green line was drawn on monthly chart, then I changed it to a weekly chart and drew the same trendline in blue. Both seem to work relatively well, but I don't like the fact that they are different.
Attached Image
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #20,839
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:10pm Sep 9, 2012 10:10pm
Z

Due to the VAST amount of time collected in one monthly bar the trend lines will always change even when going to the weekly.

It is hard even for some of the charting systems which all work on grids and either bars, candles, or line charts so when you draw a line on the monthly it is a good idea to factor in a 10 or 20 USD possible difference when drawing the chart down,

For instance, I just made the monthly bull flag, but when I drew down to the weekly I had a sort of downward channel that was in the middle EDIT: CANDLES (not lines),.

Best advice if you are studying say H1 Daily And weekly all with serious and somewhat different techs perhaps make a chart for each. H1 H4 and Daily should all work together, but when you draw up to the weekly your head might turn a bit.

Yes I like them to be exact and that is the chart I am working on now, the THREE different ways to draw the BROKEN GOLD DTL.

It is amazing that some people have charts showing it as still under a break!
Quoting zusch
XTrade,
I know a lot of traders use trendlines such as yourself, but does the subjective-ness of trendlines like the chart below bother you the same way it bothers me?

Green line was drawn on monthly chart, then I changed it to a weekly chart and drew the same trendline in blue. Both seem to work relatively well, but I don't like the fact that they are different.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #20,840
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:14pm Sep 9, 2012 10:14pm
Z I wont erase them.... You will see them in green on the chart I am about to post. That is the difference from Monthly to weekly.

BTW. I think my monthly bull flag could use another top that is lower potentially, we have moved a lot in the past two weeks. It should be justified and shown correctly on the techs...

yet, I didn't want to totally cut the wicks off and go too far down...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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