Macroeconomic Analysis

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Some notes/charts about €

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous €/US$ studies: nov.2012 -- july.2012 -- may.2012 -- july.2011 -- may.2010.
❖Previous Forex pairs: € / SwF -- € / ￥, -- € / GBP -- € / Cd$ -- € / ZAR -- € / Nz$ -- € / Au$.

This post is the III about a work-hypothesis of monetary-Japanization of €.
Is it possible that in 2012 has started an evolution of € as ¥ in the past two decades (from 1990) ???
If this model is correct, then we should observe a series of monetary phenomena in the future:
-) €/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp !!!
-) €/GBP. in up-trend;
-) €/US$ in up-trend;
-) GBP/US$ in down-trend;
-) US$/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attempt (see attached charts) ???
-) stop of the bear-trend in €/SwF; in 2012, the Swiss central bank has effectively attempted to freeze the cross (see zoomed attached chart) !!!
-) €-Index in up-trend [see previous chsrts of nov.2012];
-) ¥-Index in down-trend (see the attached chart of ￥-Index, and the giant spread Commercials vs. Financials in the CoT-Chart);
-) US$-Index in side(?up?)-trend.

M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma).
Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...raph_id=106987

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Some notes/charts about Yale Confidence Indicators

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two indicators of Yale University, about the confidence of investors (institutionals & individuals) vs. U.S. stocks-market.

◭ Yale Valuation Confidence Index is the percent of the population who think that the market is not too high. This Index is the number who choose 1 Too Low) or 3 (About right) as a percentage of those who choose 1, 2, or 3.
Question: Stock prices in the United States, when compared with measures of true fundamental value or sensible investment value, are: 1. Too low. 2. Too high. 3. About right. 4. Do not know.
This indicator is about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings and shows an about anticipatory behaviour.

◮ Yale Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability of stocks-market crash is less than 10% in the next-six months.
Question: What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months, including the case that a crash occurred in the other countries and spreads to the U. S.? (An answer of 0% means that it cannot happen, an answer of 100% means it is sure to happen.
This indicator is about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings and shows an about anticipatory behaviour.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about €

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous Forex pairs: € / GBP (oct.2012) -- € / GBP (nov.2011) -- GBP / US$ (nov.2011).

This post is the IV about a work-hypothesis of monetary-Japanization of €: an evolution of € as ¥ in the past two decades (from 1990).
If this model is correct (as pointed-out in the post n.741), then we should observe a series of monetary phenomena in the future:
-) €/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp !!!
-) €/GBP. in up-trend (see attached charts);
-) €/US$ in up-trend;
-) GBP/US$ in down-trend (see attached charts);
-) US$/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp ???
-) stop of the bear-trend in €/SwF; in 2012, the Swiss central bank has effectively attempted to freeze the cross !!!
-) €-Index in up-trend;
-) ¥-Index in down-trend (?) (see also the giant spread Commercials vs. Financials in the CoT-Chart);
-) US$-Index in side(?up?)-trend.

As we can see from the attached charts, €/GBP show an important continuation-bull signal, with curve again above the key-neck of the giant gray-cup 1995/2009 (0.26 area; possible up-target: 1.1).
Moreover this pair show an impulsive action from the lows of 2000 (see blue-markers 1,2,3,?).
The pair GBP/US$ shows some long-term bearish elements:
-) curve below the giant ascending (blue & dotted) channel, after the deep break in 2009 !!!
-) bearish cup-monstre in 2001-2009, in contest vs. multiple lows (see blue-markers).
-) Local sell-sign (green-circle) with prices below to main green ema, M/10, key-binary 1.51/1.60, giant ascending channel.

M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma).
Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph_id=107223

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Some notes/charts about short-term price-evolution of Au & precious ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous Au charts: long term (june.2011) -- Short term (aug.2012 -- may.2012) -- AU & Ag comparative corrections from 2000.
❖ Previous Au vs. Pt: may.2012 -- aug.2011 - jan.2011.
❖ Previous Precious vs. Industrial Metals: june.2012 -- june.2012.
❖ Comparative ETF price: Au -- GroupMetals.

PLATFORM PRICES OF PRECIOUS
... Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag ... .
... Re Os Ir Pt Au ... .

In this post there are some notes about ETF on Au & some precious (charts in linear & h4 ema-format; in yellow there is ema/10 months).
On GLD ETF we can see the following GraphicalContest in progress (sept.2011 until now):
-) bullish double-lows vs. bearish triple-tops (dec.2011-may.2012 vs. nov.2011-feb.2012-oct.2012);
-) prices (consistently & persistently) below the GraphicalContest lows, have a bearish impact on ETF, with a first target of 127$ about (in 4h ema-format).
Only a rapid action of prices above the mid-line GraphicalContest, can stop the bearish evolution of GLD, with a first target on main descending pink-line, and a second target toward the triple-tops.
In the second chart there is the r-spread between GLD vs. WITE ETF, in order to measure the short-term financial stress as Au vs silver, platinum and palladium bullion (indicator about contrarian to main trend of macro-economy).
Global array of curve shows a bearish-status of this indicator (strenght: Au < white-precious) and this is a sign of local stress increase inside Au prices.
Curve below the red channel shows an increase of stress inside Au-prices. Alert !!!
In the chart III there is the r-spread between the Au-ETF IAU vs. Pt-ETF PPLT (indicator about contrarian to main trend of macro-economy).
Global array is very similar to previous GLD/WITE, but with a bearish status confirmed (1y frame).
The local strength of Au << Pt !!!
This GLD loss of strength is in agreement to the monthly chart (IV), with a very interesting ''game of insides''.
The target of each inside are the columns of the same colour; alert for the inside dotted mid-points, as switch-levels for the bull/bear positions.
The chart V shows the price-action of precious ETN JJP, that shows the same short-term structure of GLD, but a little more bearish.
The chart VI is the r-spread between precious metals ETN JJP vs industrial metals ETN JJM. The strength of precious shows an important (local) SellOff 'in-progress', but GLD shows a strength >> other precious (according to VII chart GLD/JJP).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about Au vs. € and other currencies.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous €/US$ studies: nov.2012 -- july.2012 -- may.2012 -- july.2011 -- may.2010.
❖Previous Forex pairs: € / SwF -- € / ￥, -- € / GBP -- € / Cd$ -- € / ZAR -- € / Nz$ -- € / Au$.
❖ Previous: Au vs. ￥jan.2013.

In this post there are some notes about the Gold price vs. some currency indexes: US$, €, ￥, GBP, SwF, in order to compare the strength of single currencies vs. Au. This post is the V about a work-hypothesis of monetary-Japanization of €: an evolution of € as ¥ in the past two decades (from 1990).
If this model is correct (as pointed-out in the post n.741), then we should observe a series of monetary phenomena in the future:
-) €/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp !!!
-) €/GBP. in up-trend (see post n.743);
-) €/US$ in up-trend;
-) GBP/US$ in down-trend (see post n.743);
-) US$/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp ???
-) stop of the bear-trend in €/SwF; in 2012, the Swiss central bank has effectively attempted to freeze the cross !!!
-) €-Index in up-trend;
-) ¥-Index in down-trend (?) (see also the giant spread Commercials vs. Financials in the CoT-Chart);
-) US$-Index in side(?up?)-trend.

But versus Gold ???
A simple way to evaluate the strength of 5 currencies vs. Au, is to carry out the spreads between the price-curves against 10mo. & 100 weeks ema averages.
As we can see, the euro show more negative value (= the lowest spread) vs. ema/10mo.
€ & SwF are the two currencies with a full descending-test on ema/100w !!!
In the short term, € shows the higher strength, while ￥ shows an important strength-loss !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Au vs. €/US$
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-16_2013-02-16

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Some notes/charts about ITA Macroeconomic Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI; GlobalComit; Comit/30; Comit/Perf.);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous EWI stocks-benchmark study: jan.2013.
❖ Previous Macroeconomic curves: may.2012 -- feb.2013 -- feb.2013.
❖ See this set of reports: I -- II -- III -- IV

In this post there are charts about Italia Current Accounts, both in € (3 zooms) and in GDP%.
Compare these curves with the previous charts of feb.2013 posts.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about €-Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous €/US$ studies: nov.2012 -- july.2012 -- may.2012 -- july.2011 -- may.2010.
❖Previous Forex pairs: € / SwF -- € / ￥, -- € / GBP -- € / Cd$ -- € / ZAR -- € / Nz$ -- € / Au$.
❖ Previous: Au vs. ￥ jan.2013 -- feb.2013.

In this post there are some long-term structures of the €-Index chart (chart I in linear & daily ema-format; chart II in linear & monthly candles-format with net CoT curves).
This post is the VI about a work-hypothesis of monetary-Japanization of €: an evolution of € as ¥ in the past two decades (from 1990).
If this model is correct (as pointed-out in the post n.741), then we should observe a series of monetary phenomena in the future:
-) €/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp !!!
-) €/GBP. in up-trend (see post n.743);
-) €/US$ in up-trend;
-) GBP/US$ in down-trend (see post n.743);
-) US$/¥ in up-trend; curve is in long-term revesal-attemp ???
-) stop of the bear-trend in €/SwF; in 2012, the Swiss central bank has effectively attempted to freeze the cross !!!
-) €-Index in up-trend (see notes below & attached charts);
-) ¥-Index in down-trend (?) (see also the giant spread Commercials vs. Financials in the CoT-Chart);
-) US$-Index in side(?up?)-trend.

Notes on €-Index.
-) Giant cup 1979-1988 (1.16/0.58 about; mid-level 0.870); upTarget 1.74.
-) Giant cup 1995-2008 (1.43/0.84 about; mid-level 1.135); upTarget 2.02, dwnTarget 0.25, dwn%Target 0.49.
-) Giant cup 1979-1988 (1.58/1.20 about; mid-level 1.395); upTarget 1.96, dwnTarget 0.82.
-) Actual price-action shows (yellow-arrow) some important & preliminar bullish signs.
-) Net CoT curves shows a reversal attempt in long (Large > 0 line & Commercials < 0 line).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about Moore pattern.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are three benchmaks 1970/1986, in order to evaluates the Moore pattern '70-'80 vs. '00-'10 decades.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-03-03

How would I go about learning to analyse the macroenvironment?
Understand the flow of money, and form expert opinions on the flow of money and where currencies will go etc.
I understand the basics but I want to slingshot my progress and become like a fund manager or Soros.

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Some notes/charts about some Insider Sentiment Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: oct.2010.

In this post there are some Sentiment Indicators, based on the sell & buy actions of insiders.

The main graphical elements of Inverse Inside Sell/Buy Indicator (about in-phase vs. underlyings) are as follows:
-) Pyroclastic low in 2011, abount 'in-line' vs. previous key low of 2008 !!!
-) Pyroclastic top in 2010, well above tops from 2003 !!!
-) Actual curve shows ascending lows, but values are inside the quiet-zone.
-) This quiet-structure of indicator is according to the absence of signal from the long-term chart (in not-inverse scale; as mov.aver. 4w.).
-) The lows of 2008-2011 of Inverse Indicator, is about 'in-line' with 2001-2002 tops of the long-term chart in not-inverse scale (as mov.aver. 4w.).
-) The long-term chart in not-inverse scale (as mov.aver. 4w.) is very far from the area of the lows, that characterizes the tops of the underlyings.
This indicator shows a quiet-phase, both in mid-term and in long-term.
There is the possibility of a new bullish-phase of underlyings.

The main graphical elements of the Insiders Buy Pressure (contrarian to underlyings; frame: short-term) for Dow Jones Ind.Aver., are as follows:
-) There is an important buy-spike in dec.2012 !!!
-) Actual values are near zero-level, with mov.aver. in bearish-array.
This short-term indicator shows an important but local event of buy on DowJones Ind.Aver. (see top-spike).

NFO is an interesting ETF with underlying the Sabrient Insider index, built on the activities of insiders.
In this post there are also some comparative charts (in long-term ema-format), about NFO vs. some main benchmarks, in order to obtain anticipatory signs/signals. The comparative curves are in r-spread (see below, spread-indicators).
From the comparative price-evolution of NFO vs. other benchmarks, we can see an over-performance of NFO vs. IOO, ITOT, SPY, OEF & DIA. Nasdaq ETF QQQ is the only ETF with an over-performance better than NFO.
The r-spread (or H.I.) curves shows both structural buy-signs (see blue-circles of 2009) and preliminar new buy-signs (see the actual blue-circles). The previous key-levels are well below the actual 2012-lows for H.I. of IOO, ITOT, SPY (see ONEQ for a full descending-test and attempt of reversal).
We are in a new bullish phase of these r-spread (= H.I.) indicators, only with curve well above the previous 2011/2012 lows (IOO, ITOT, SPY) and with ema-knot in bullish-array (actual blue-circles). For Nasdaq-indicator there will be the bullish-signal only with curve well above the top of 2007 !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

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Some notes/charts about Vane Market Sentiment Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: 2009 -- feb.2011.

The main graphical elements of curve (in-phase vs. underlyings) are as follows.
-) The three historical tops shows a descending-array 1985, 1997, 2007), in hard negative divergence vs. underlyings, but with an ''in-progress'' break (positive & local graphical sign) !!!
-) The indicator shows ascending lows from 2002/2003 to 2008/2009, in positive divergence vs. underlyings.
-) The key lows of underlyings shows Vane curve values at 30-level or below.
-) Vane curve above the mid-level is a bull-confirmation for underlyings.
-) Actual value of Vane curve is ''in-phase'' vs. underlyings (top of phase), in full ascending-test of 70-line !!!

If the curve will be in continuation-bull above the link among the historical tops, there will be a great probability of values above 70-level, with a first target in area 75/80.
Curve again below this key historical line, shows a weak support for the underlyings.
This indicator shows important anticipatory behaviours during topping-phases of underlyings, as we can see at the end of '90 & '80 decades.
The current structure does not show similar differences

Some notes about V.M. Bullish Consensus Indicator.
The Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment for a particular market; a Bullish Consensus of x% for a market implies that x% of the traders are bullish and expect the price of market to rise.
Conversely, 100-x% of the traders are bearish and expect prices to decline. The Bullish Consensus is sometimes referred to as market sentiment.
The Bullish Consensus originated in 1964 and was first used for taking Contrary Opinion positions in the commodity markets.
The indicator is compiled daily by tracking the buy and sell recommendations of leading market advisers and commodity trading advisers relative to a particular market.
The advice is collected by: 1. Reading a current copy of the market advisers' market letter.
2. Calling hotlines provided by advisers.
3. Contacting major brokerage houses to learn what the house analyst is recommending for the different markets.
4. Reading fax and E-mail sent from advisers.
The buy and sell recommendations from each adviser are tracked during the day to verify the entry and exit of each trading position.
The Bullish Consensus is compiled at the end of the day to reflect the open positions of the advisers as of that day's market close.
The Bullish Consensus can be used for trend following and for Contrary Opinion situations.
The Bullish Consensus is a measure of sentiment towards a given market and will generally increase with rising prices and decline with falling prices.
When the Bullish Consensus reaches an extreme over-bought or over-sold level prices usually correct or reverse direction - often quite briskly.
The Bullish Consensus can help keep you on the right side of the market. The Bullish Consensus should not be confused with the Commitment of Traders report put out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission {CFTC}.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about the short-term evolution of Au-miners ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: 2011 chart -- june.2012.
❖ Some Au-benchmarks.

In this post there are some notes about the short term evolution of ETF on Gold Miner Stocks (GDX, GDXJ; see also GGGG, GLDX, RING, NUGT, DUST).

GDX & GDXJ shows the following main graphical elements (compare to GLD price-evolution).
-) Possible bearish H&S based on 40/41$ level, with actual prices a little below the neck (negative mid-term sign) !!!
-) Great momentum-loss on tops of 2010/2011, according to MACD & TRIX (negative mid-term sign).
-) Important momentum-gain on top fo 2012, according to MACD & TRIX (positive short-term sign).
-) Positive divergences on MACD & TRIX of lows of 2012/2013 (positive short-term sign) !!!

GLD vs. GDX shows the following main graphical elements (indicator about contrarian to Au-miners; see notes).
-) Actual top about-in-line vs. previous top of 2008 (possible stress-sign inside Au-based stocks & commodity), but with great momentum-loss of MACD & TRIX (positive mid-term sign)!!!
-) Bullish-cup of 2012 with not-completed target (negative short-term sign).
-) Momentum-loss of MACD & TRIX also for the top of 2012 & 2013 (positive short-term sign).
-) The complete wave structure (white markers) shows alert for Au-miners.

GDX vs. GDXJ shows the following main graphical elements (indicator about contrarian to Au-miners; see notes).
-) The 2011 lows is in perfect phase vs. the tops of Au-miners (GDXJ has an anticipatory behaviour vs. GDX).
-) The next SkyRocket of indicator is in-phase with the first phase of SellOff of Au-miners.
-) Tops & lows of indicator from 2011, are in negative divergence with MACD & TRIX (now in test of 0-line).
-) Apex structure of this indicator is border-line for a continuation-bull (negative for Au-miners) or a SellOff of indicator (positive for Au-miners), according to price behavious on the white-gray band.

Leveraged ETF DUST vs. NUGT (indicator about contrarian to Au-miners; see notes) shows a complete bullish-array, according to MACD & TRIX (negative short-term sign).

According to these charts (GDX, GDXJ & spread-indicators), in mid-term there are both signs of bearish progress and of bullish reversal.
This is according to long term structural charts of some benchmarks Au-based, as ARCA Gold Bugs Index or HUI, Philadelphia Gold & SIilver Index or XAU, D.J. US Gold Mining Index or DJUSPM, Nyse Gold Miners Index or GDM (post n.565). Infact there is a giant yearly inside-candle (2008), with an important bullish-signal in 2010, and now in full descending-test of ''inside mid-level''.
Prices of these benchmarks (consistently & persistently) below these mid-levels, will cause the switch of trend in bearish-array for all the Au-stocks.
Actual phase is very important for the evolution of Au-stocks, and is linked to the local GraphicalContest of Au (see post n.744: bullish double-lows vs. bearish triple-tops dec.2011-may.2012 vs. nov.2011-feb.2012-oct.2012).


NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about the Louisville LODI Indicator.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Louisville LODI Ind. original source.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

http://101.r.photoshare.ru/01019/009...5720d085f1.jpg

any ideas?

►►REPLY◀◀

In the attached charts there is a model (both from the web and from my little studies).
See also the post n.748.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀


❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about sun stocks of NYSE.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Sun stocks data & charts (weekly ema-format).
Previous posts on sun stocks: ASTI, CSIQ, CSUN, DQ, DSTI, FSLR, HSOL, JASO, JKS, LDK, SPWR, STP, RSOL, SOL, TSL, YGE.
❖ Sun benchmarks review of jan.2013.

In this post there are some notes about the sun stocks of NYSE, in order to seach the best player (from a qualitative point of view), according to graphical elements.

M E T H O D S
The graphical elements are the followings (data of 26-27/03/2013):
''1''. - actual prices vs. ema/10mo. (''+'' if the spread is > 0; ''-'' if the spread is < 0; + as positive and - as negative element for the stock);
''2''. - actual prices vs. lows of 2008/2009 (''+'' if the spread is > 0; ''-'' if the spread is < 0; + as positive and - as negative element for the stock);
''3''. - actual prices vs. lows of 2011 (''+'' if the spread is > 0; ''-'' if the spread is < 0; + as positive and - as negative element for the stock);
''4''. - post-2011 price-action vs. benchmarks (TAN & KWT ETF data; TAN-chart & KWT-charts): ASTI CSIQ CSUN DQ DSTI FSLR HSOL JASO JKS LDK SPWR STP RSOL SOL TSL YGE.

R E S U L T S
ASTI: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 1/4].
CSIQ: ''1-'' -- ''2+'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 3/4].
CSUN: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 1/4].
DQ: ''1-'' -- ''2 NoData'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 1/3].
DSTI: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 0/4].
FSLR: ''1+'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 2/4].
HSOL: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4='' -- [+ points: 0/3].
JASO: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 0/4].
JKS: ''1-'' -- ''2 NoData'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 2/3].
LDK: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 0/4].
RSOL: ''1+'' -- ''2+'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 4/4].
SOL: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3='' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 1/3].
SPWR: ''1+'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3+'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 3/4].
STP: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4-'' -- [+ points: 0/4].
TSL: ''1-'' -- ''2+'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 2/4].
YGE: ''1-'' -- ''2-'' -- ''3-'' -- ''4+'' -- [+ points: 1/4].

S C O R E
RSOL > CSIQ & SPWR > JKS > FSLR & TSL > DQ & SOL > ASTI & CSUN & YGE > HSOL > DSTI & JASO & LDK & STP

ATTACHED TABLE
In the table attached there are the market cap. of the sun stocks of this posts.
The price action & market cap. of RSOL (particularly), and also of CSIQ & JKS, shows an important probability of being acquired ???
The price action & market cap. of SPWR, FSLR, TSL, and YGE(?) shows them as potential buyers ???

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study.

In this post we can see as the strength of Nd/Biotech is >> Nd/Comp., in full descending test of an historical level !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Renaissance Capital's 1Q 2013 IPO Review.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Original source: Global & US data.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.
H! ALL

Some notes/charts about Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
-) main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
-) global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
-) global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
*) Previous study of nov.2012.

Same graphical situation of previous study, but more critical.
See also these charts: January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! I.M.O. by Sa!Vi [Ke'SADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda Empire !!!]
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about iShare Fund on MSCI Sweden Index (EWD).
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some charts about the MSCI fund on Sweden EWD.
See also these charts: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- monthly ema-format -- yearly -- EWD & EWG -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣