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China’s Next Phase: What Persistent Supply-Side Growth Means for Global Markets
China’s economic trajectory is shifting, but not in the way many had once expected. Consumption-led rebalancing has not materialised. Instead, economic policy continues to emphasise industrial modernisation, aligned with a long-term strategy focused on supply-chain resilience and national security. Policymakers appear willing to tolerate only a moderate slowdown, with longer-term guidance pointing to lower but more sustainable growth, implicitly anchoring real GDP growth in the low-4% range over the next decade. The 2026 growth target range of 4.5%-5% reinforces room for expansion when it aligns with strategic ... (full story)