What Kevin Warsh Means for Treasury Yields | Metals Mine

  • What Kevin Warsh Means for Treasury Yields

    From robinjbrooks.substack.com

    Kevin Warsh feels strongly that the Fed should stop micromanaging markets. In fact, he feels so strongly about this that last week’s FOMC statement dropped its forward guidance, he didn’t contribute to the infamous “dot” plot, and refused to answer any and all questions in the press conference on the path ahead for monetary policy. You can debate whether less forward guidance is better - I happen to be strongly in favor of scaling things back - but that’s not my focus today. Instead, I’ll discuss how markets - specifically Treasury yields - are likely to behave if the Fed drops its forward guidance. ... (full story)

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phntmzr0
2 hr 42 min ago
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"Kevin Warsh feels strongly that the Fed should stop micromanaging markets."

Then explain all the "Task Forces" he is creating. He wants more micromanaging but less individual accountability, is how I interpret his actions. Hence no forward guidance.

Kevin Darsh, more like it.
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Trader#D228
2 hr 24 min ago
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xD
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Trader#F406
2 hr 13 min ago
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Kev is just threatening with rate hikes and threatening with shrinking the balance sheet. Of these two, probably neither will happen. If the Fed meant bussiness they would have hiked already, but they're just bullshitting. Real interest rate is negative, meaning the Fed is again too late, however with rate hikes not cuts. The only good thing is that rate cuts aren't as mentioned as before, and neither should they be.
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phntmzr0
1 hr 30 min ago
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That actually make some sense to me in terms of Warsh's actions.
But when you look at the dot plot, most the other members on the board are leaning towards a rate hike. Not sure if that means much.

Prior to Warsh's confirmation into his current position, he was touted for his allegiance to Trump, who would rather rates be cut.

So his ambiguity may be a balancing act between the wishes of the board and the wishes of his buddy in the white house.
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Trader#079A
1 hr 23 min ago
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Not much has really changed though, yet. Rate hike expectations moved forward perhaps. Market is largely expecting rates to be 0-50bps higher than they are now over the next 2 years. This has been the case since before the war started.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
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Trader#8D97
1 hr 52 min ago
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He should not talk about raising or lowering interest rates. The metals are under pressure. Otherwise, the price of gold would have been above 4300.
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