US Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 18-19 March 2026, movements in euro area financial markets had continued to be driven by developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices. Amid elevated volatility, markets continued to expect the oil price shock to be persistent. Although upside risks had moderated, oil was priced significantly higher, over an extended period of time, than it had been before the start of the war in the Middle East. As a result, markets continued to price in a notable and sustained inflationary impact. Inflation fixings had increased further for both 2026 and 2027. This suggested that investors anticipated some indirect or second-round effects extending beyond the first year of the conflict, before inflation was expected to return to the target of 2% in 2028. At the same time, markets continued to expect the economy to be relatively resilient. Prices of risk assets, including equities, as well as sovereign and corporate bond spreads, and the exchange rate of the euro had moved back towards the levels observed prior to the conflict. Earnings expectations had been revised up since the beginning of the war, which was consistent with the view that the impact on economic growth would be short-lived. At the same time, there had been negative surprises in macroeconomic data for the euro area. Therefore, buoyant risk asset markets, which were hovering near all-time highs, might indicate some investor complacency given the size and persistence of the energy price shock. With inflation still perceived as the dominant risk, investors were pricing in cumulative policy rate hikes by the ECB of 73 basis points in 2026. Overall, financial conditions had eased since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting, driven mainly by strong risk asset markets, but they remained somewhat tighter than before the war. ECB ACCOUNTS: UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION AND DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH HAD INTENSIFIED. ECB ACCOUNTS: WEAKNESS COULD PERSIST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CONFLICT Just in | ECB Reports: Consumer side shows no signs of second-round effects as wage negotiations are yet to occur. ECB REPORT SHOWS IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SEE SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS ON CONSUMERS, AS WAGE NEGOTIATIONS ARE REQUIRED. ECB MEMBERS MIGHT HAVE SUPPORTED HIGHER RATES.

In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's ...

Durable goods orders in the United States surged by 1.9% in April to reach $346 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. The figure marked a jump from March's revised ...