Lets see if the cowardly, spineless central government of Iraq will use this opportunity to sell their oil in Yuan and store it in either gold or Chinese banks! If they continue selling in USD, they will all be hanged the coming 12 months because it will be proven without any doubt they are leaching and enabling the economic occupation of the region!

Once murika gets kicked out everyone will pretend to be on the right side, unfortunately we still struggle with dual nationals holding power positions, with majority holding British citizenship - which is a big red-flag against any power broker!

Talked with ChatGPT about this. The response is... not good.

Anyway...



Me: How impactful would 9 million B/D less in a month of export be for the Middle-East and the price of oil?

ChatGPT: A sudden loss of 9 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil exports for even a single month would be extremely impactful—both for the Middle East and global oil prices. To put it in perspective:

Scale of the disruption
Global oil consumption is roughly 100–103 mb/d.
A 9 mb/d drop = ~9% of global supply.

That’s not a normal fluctuation—it’s closer to the scale of major historical shocks like:

the 1973 Oil Crisis
or the 1979 Oil Crisis
Impact on oil prices

A disruption of this size would likely trigger:

1. Sharp price spike
Oil prices could jump 30–100%+ very quickly, depending on:
spare capacity (mainly from OPEC producers)
strategic reserves releases (like the International Energy Agency coordinated stockpiles)
In a worst-case panic scenario, prices could briefly overshoot (as seen during crises).
2. Extreme volatility
Traders would react to uncertainty → daily swings of several dollars per barrel.
Futures markets would spike on fear of prolonged disruption.
Can the market compensate?

Not easily:

Spare capacity (mostly in Saudi Arabia/UAE): maybe 3–5 mb/d at best, and not instantly deployable.
Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR):
Could cover part of the shortfall temporarily
But not fully offset 9 mb/d for long

Bottom line: a large gap remains, especially in the first weeks.

Impact on the Middle East
1. Revenue shock
If exports are disrupted physically → huge income loss for producers.
If prices spike but exports fall → mixed outcome (depends on who can still export).
2. Geopolitical consequences
Likely tied to conflict, sanctions, or chokepoints (e.g., Strait of Hormuz).
Could increase tensions and trigger military/naval responses.
3. Shift in market power
Producers still able to export gain leverage.
Non-Middle East producers (U.S., Brazil, Norway) benefit from higher prices.
Global economic effects
Inflation spike (fuel, transport, food)
Central banks may delay rate cuts or tighten policy
Slower growth or even recession risk if sustained
Duration matters
1 month only: severe but manageable with reserves + demand adjustment
Longer disruption: structurally higher prices and possible global recession
Bottom line

A 9 mb/d export loss is:

Massive (near-crisis level)
Would cause sharp price spikes and volatility
Only partially offset by spare capacity and reserves
Likely to have global economic and geopolitical consequences

If you want, I can model a rough price range scenario (e.g., Brent going from $80 → $120 vs $150+) based on different assumptions.

Me: What's the normal export of oil for Middle-East in terms of B/D in a month?

ChatGPT: The Middle East is the largest oil-exporting region in the world, so its “normal” export level is very high and relatively stable compared to most regions.

Typical Middle East oil exports
~20 to 25 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil exports
Over a 30-day month → roughly:
600 to 750 million barrels per month
Share of global exports
Global oil exports are ~45–50 mb/d
So the Middle East accounts for ~40–50% of global traded oil

The biggest exporters in the region include:

Saudi Arabia (~6–7 mb/d exports)
Iraq (~3–4 mb/d)
United Arab Emirates (~3 mb/d)
Kuwait (~2 mb/d)
Iran (highly variable due to sanctions, ~1–2+ mb/d)
Context for your earlier question

If exports are normally ~22 mb/d, then a drop of:

9 mb/d = ~35–40% of Middle East exports
Or about ~9% of global supply

That’s enormous—not just a disruption, but a systemic shock to global oil markets.

Bottom line
Normal Middle East exports: ~20–25 mb/d
Monthly equivalent: ~600–750 million barrels
A 9 mb/d drop would remove over a third of the region’s exports

If you want, I can break this down further by where those exports go (Asia vs Europe vs U.S.) or how much flows through key chokepoints like Hormuz.

Me: So, 9 million B/D would be like they cut exports in almost half?

ChatGPT: Yes—that’s basically correct, with a bit of nuance.

If we take a “normal” Middle East export level of about 20–25 mb/d:

A 9 mb/d drop would equal:
~45% cut (if baseline is 20 mb/d)
~36% cut (if baseline is 25 mb/d)

So in practical terms:
It’s not exactly half, but it’s close enough to think of it as “cutting exports by about half.”

Why that’s such a big deal

Cuts of this magnitude are:

Way beyond normal policy moves by OPEC (which are usually 1–2 mb/d at most)
More in line with major geopolitical disruptions (wars, embargoes, blockades)

For context:

Even a 1–2 mb/d imbalance can move prices significantly
9 mb/d is a full-blown shock
Intuitive way to think about it

Imagine:

The Middle East is supplying ~1 out of every 2 barrels traded globally
Suddenly, ~1 out of every 3 of those barrels disappears

That’s why prices would likely spike sharply—it’s not just a shortage, it’s a market dislocation

Bottom line
Your intuition is right
A 9 mb/d drop ≈ “almost half” of Middle East exports
In oil market terms, that’s extreme and crisis-level

Me: What if this continues for a couple of months?

ChatGPT: If a ~9 mb/d export loss from the Middle East lasted several months, it would stop being a short-term shock and turn into a full-scale global energy crisis.

Let’s walk through what changes when duration increases:

Month 1 vs. Months 2–3+
First month (recap)
Markets panic → prices spike sharply
Emergency stock releases kick in (via the International Energy Agency)
запас supply cushions part of the blow

Painful but still “manageable”

After 2–3 months

Now the system starts to break down structurally:

1. запас buffers run thin
Strategic reserves (U.S., Europe, Asia) can release a few mb/d
But not 9 mb/d for long
Governments become reluctant to keep draining reserves

The safety net weakens fast

2. Prices likely stay very high (or climb further)

Instead of a spike + pullback, you get sustained high prices:

Oil could plausibly stabilize in a very elevated range (e.g., well above typical levels)
Risk of extreme spikes if:
more outages occur
markets fear escalation

Psychology shifts from “temporary disruption” → “structural shortage”

3. Demand destruction kicks in

At this scale, the market rebalances by forcing consumption down:

Airlines cut routes
Freight slows
الصناعي output declines
Consumers reduce driving

Historically, this is what happened during crises like the 1973 Oil Crisis.

The economy absorbs the shock through reduced activity

4. Global economic impact

Sustained disruption → high risk of:

Recession in oil-importing economies
Inflation spikes (fuel, food, transport)
Central banks delaying rate cuts or tightening policy

Energy becomes the dominant macroeconomic driver.

5. Supply response (but slow)

Other producers ramp up:

U.S. shale
Offshore producers (Brazil, Norway, etc.)

But:

Takes months to meaningfully increase output
Won’t fully replace 9 mb/d quickly
6. Geopolitical escalation

A prolonged loss of this size likely implies:

Major conflict or blockade (e.g., Strait of Hormuz risk)
Naval/military involvement to restore flows
Pressure on OPEC members with spare capacity
Big picture shift
Short disruption:

“We can ride this out.”

Multi-month disruption:

“The world doesn’t have enough oil at current prices.”

That’s when:

Prices stay structurally high
Economies slow down
Policy responses intensify
Bottom line

If a 9 mb/d Middle East export loss lasts a few months:

It becomes a true global oil crisis
Prices likely remain very high and volatile
Demand is forced down (economic slowdown)
Recession risk rises significantly

"...we assume the conflict (it's a war not a conflict) does not persist part April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes."

I think the assumption that the war will end this month is based on hopeism and not reality. Shows a complete lack of understanding about this war. I guess we'll see soon either way...

What a convenient piece of info to move markets for spikes and stop hunts. These two headlines are on different time horizon. First one is now, second one is much later. Pure manipulation

Diesel price up 100% (doubled) in Asia / Australia .. just saying .. perhaps they should revise their report