Gold and Oil Brace for the Strait of Hormuz Deadline

IRAN TALKS SHOW GLIMMER OF PROGRESS AS DEADLINE LOOMS - AXIOS. ... Achieving a ceasefire deal by Trump's 8 PM deadline still looks like a long shot - Axios, citing 4 sources

*MIDEAST COUNTRIES SEEN SHUTTING 9M B/D OF OIL OUTPUT: EIA EIA: EXPECTS BRENT-WTI SPREAD TO GRADUALLY DECLINE AS STRAIT OF HORMUZ OIL FLOWS RESUME, OIL PRICES FALL Short-Term Energy Outlook: April 2026 Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be limited causing oil storage to fill quickly in countries that rely on the waterway for exports. As a result, we estimate that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in March. We assess that production shut-ins will rise to 9.1 million b/d in April. In this outlook, we assume the conflict does not persist past April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes. Under those assumptions, we expect production shut-ins will fall to 6.7 million b/d in May and return close to pre-conflict levels in late 2026. • Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk premium on crude oil prices throughout the forecast period as we expect uncertainty around future supply disruptions to keep prices above pre-conflict levels. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall below $90/b in 4Q26 and average $76/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and re EIA HALVES 2026 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST DUE TO INITIATIVES TO LOWER FUEL USE, FUEL SHORTAGES, AND FUEL EXPORT CURBS #OOTT

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