US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Unemployment claims are no longer a reliable early-warning signal when labour supply is artificially constrained.

Low claims today do not mean:
Healthy labour market
Demand strength
Disinflation ahead

They mean:
Employers can’t replace workers cheaply — so they don’t fire them.
That is stagflationary logic, not recessionary logic.
What Breaks the Stalemate (Watch These)
Sustained rise in continued claims
Participation rate uptick (immigration reversal)
Wage growth < productivity (not happening yet)
Services CPI collapse (unlikely near-term)
Until then, recession calls are early.

Bottom Line

The labour market isn’t strong.
It’s inelastic.
And in macro, inelastic labour is inflationary — not deflationary.

PS: I love AI

They going to do what they want to do regarding of the news... happy trading 2026

Likely bearish for the market. Market has no reason to rally. Simple thesis: the unemployment claims are better than expected and the Fed continues to see everything is fine; no need for QE. Combined with geo-politics, today is likely a strong down day strongly pressuring Monday's buyers.

Be Safe, make a decision at 14:30 GMT, let the market show you. also today is thursday which is usuallya reversal day (to be considered) imo

Dump, dump and pump not necessary, but very possible

Translation for markets:
The labour market isn’t strong — it’s constrained. And that’s worse for inflation.

below expectations alredy good data. we cant expect all data better than previous month. if like that oneday unemploy reach zero.

below expectations but still above previous month 200 pre month vs 208 current month......YoY 201 pre year vs 208 current month

Buy or sell and much going upside

every person make expectation, but still above the previous month