Fed's Powell: AI is probably part of the weak jobs story, but not a big part

Fed's powell: It is a less likely possibility that the labour market gets tight and boosts inflation; not particularly likely. Fed's Powell, when asked if we are seeing a positive productivity shock: Yes.

Fed's Powell: Implication of Fed forecasts is higher productivity. POWELL: OUR TWO GOALS ARE A BIT IN TENSION POWELL: EVERYONE AT TABLE AGREES INFLATION IS TOO HIGH Fed's Powell: All agree the labour market has softened, and there are further risks. FED POWELL: DISCUSSIONS ARE THOUGHTFUL AND RESPECTFUL WITH STRONG VIEWS, BUT WE COME TOGETHER TO REACH DECISIONS, AND THERE WAS BROAD SUPPORT FOR TODAY’S DECISION.

Fed's Powell: Available evidence suggests layoffs and hiring remain low. POWELL: READINGS ON INFLATION ARE HIGHER AS GOODS INFLATION HAS PICKED UP *POWELL: MOST L/T INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH 2% GOAL *POWELL: DISINFLATION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING FOR SERVICES FED POWELL: INFLATION RISKS ARE TILTED UP, EMPLOYMENT RISKS TILTED DOWN, AND THERE IS NO RISK-FREE POLICY PATH. Fed's Powell: With downside risks to employment having risen, the balance of risks shifted in the recent months.