Fed's Powell: Implication of Fed forecasts is higher productivity

POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW ECONOMY EVOLVES Fed's Powell: The "extent and timing" phrase points out that we'll carefully evaluate incoming data. FED POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINS RESILIENT, AI DATA-CENTER INVESTMENT IS SUPPORTING BUSINESS SPENDING, AND THE BASELINE OUTLOOK SEES GROWTH PICKING UP NEXT YEAR. Fed's Powell: Some of the 2026 growth upgrade reflects the shutdown ending. POWELL: WILL GET A GREAT DEAL OF DATA BEFORE JANUARY MEETING

*POWELL: TREASURY PURCHASES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR FEW MONTHS Fed's Powell: Reserve management purchases may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate money market pressures. Thereafter, we expect purchases to decline. Fed's Powell: Standing repo operations are a critical tool to ensure the fed funds rate remains in the target range. Fed's Powell: Fed removed aggregate limit on standing repo operations.

*POWELL: RATES ARE WITHIN RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE NEUTRAL ESTIMATES Fed's Powell: Risks are tilted against each of the Fed's twin goals, which is a challenging situation. Fed's Powell: Recent rate cuts should help stabilize the labor market. *POWELL: MONETARY POLICY IS NOT ON A PRESET COURSE *POWELL: FED WILL MAKE DECISIONS ON MEETING-BY-MEETING BASIS FED POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO ADJUST POLICY RATES, BUT SAYS POLICYMAKER PROJECTIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AND NOT A PLAN OR DECISION.

POWELL: EFFECTS OF RATE CUTS SO FAR ONLY BEGINING TO BE COMING IN Fed's Powell: We will need to be careful assessing household jobs data. FED POWELL: DATA WAS NOT COLLECTED IN OCT AND HALF OF NOV, SO THE FED WILL LOOK AT IT WITH A SKEPTICAL EYE, INCLUDING CPI AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, WHICH MAY BE DISTORTED BY TECHNICAL FACTORS. POWELL: I COULD MAKE THE CASE FOR EITHER SIDE POWELL: IT'S A CLOSE CALL POWELL: ONE TOOL CAN'T DO TWO THINGS AT ONCE POWELL: IT'S A CHALLENGING SITUATION POWELL: I DON'T THINK A RATE HIKE IS ANYONE'S BASE CASE

POWELL: SOME PEOPLE FEEL WE SHOULD STOP HERE AND WAIT FED POWELL: SOME THINK WE SHOULD PAUSE AND WAIT, WHILE OTHERS THINK WE SHOULD CUT ONCE OR MORE. Fed's Powell: The unemployment rate may only tick up one, two more tenths. Fed's Powell: Don't expect a sharper downturn in employment with rates in a plausible range of neutral. Fed's Powell: We have made progress this year in non-tariff related inflation.

*POWELL: GRADUAL LABOR MARKET COOLING JUSTIFIED RATE CUT TODAY Fed's Powell: We think there's a negative 20,000 in payrolls per month. ?*POWELL: WE THINK JOB GAINS OVERSTATED BY 60K IN RECENT MONTHS Fed's Powell: Evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs. Fed's Powell: Inflation has come in a touch lower.