Fed's Powell: Available evidence suggests layoffs and hiring remain low

*POWELL: INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FED POWELL: JOBS & INFLATION OUTLOOK UNCHANGED SINCE LAST MEETING Fed's Powell: The labour market appears to be gradually cooling. *POWELL: DATA SUGGEST ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE *POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINS SOLID *POWELL: BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND Fed's Powell: The effects of the shutdown should be offset by higher growth next quarter from the reopening.

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 9–10, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. FED MEDIAN RATE FORECAST (NEXT 2 YRS) ACTUAL 3.125% (FORECAST 3.125%, PREVIOUS 3.125%) $MACRO Fed median unemployment projection 4.5% in '25, 4.4% in '26. FOMC: DOT PLOT SEES ONE MORE CUT NEXT YEAR; RESERVES POLICY UPDATED WITH NEW PURCHASES OF SHORT-TERM TREASURIES #FOMC #FederalReserve #economy

*POWELL: RATES ARE WITHIN RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE NEUTRAL ESTIMATES Fed's Powell: Risks are tilted against each of the Fed's twin goals, which is a challenging situation. Fed's Powell: Recent rate cuts should help stabilize the labor market. *POWELL: MONETARY POLICY IS NOT ON A PRESET COURSE *POWELL: FED WILL MAKE DECISIONS ON MEETING-BY-MEETING BASIS FED POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO ADJUST POLICY RATES, BUT SAYS POLICYMAKER PROJECTIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AND NOT A PLAN OR DECISION.

*POWELL: TREASURY PURCHASES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR FEW MONTHS Fed's Powell: Reserve management purchases may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate money market pressures. Thereafter, we expect purchases to decline. Fed's Powell: Standing repo operations are a critical tool to ensure the fed funds rate remains in the target range. Fed's Powell: Fed removed aggregate limit on standing repo operations.

POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW ECONOMY EVOLVES Fed's Powell: The "extent and timing" phrase points out that we'll carefully evaluate incoming data. FED POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINS RESILIENT, AI DATA-CENTER INVESTMENT IS SUPPORTING BUSINESS SPENDING, AND THE BASELINE OUTLOOK SEES GROWTH PICKING UP NEXT YEAR. Fed's Powell: Some of the 2026 growth upgrade reflects the shutdown ending. POWELL: WILL GET A GREAT DEAL OF DATA BEFORE JANUARY MEETING