The Fed is likely to cut rates for a third time this year. What happens next year is less certain

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently. The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors and there is uncertainty about how much signal to take from the monthly CPI data given it is a new data series. Nevertheless, the data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring. Economic activity continues to recover. Growth in private demand has strengthened, driven by both consumption and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages. On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently. Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight. The unemployment rate has risen gradually over the past year and employment growth has slowed. However, measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates, surveyed measures of capacity utilisation are above their long-run average and business surveys and liaison *RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET AT 3.60%; EST. 3.60% *RBA: INFLATION HAS PICKED UP MORE RECENTLY *RBA: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SLOWED *RBA: RISKS TO INFLATION HAVE TILTED TO THE UPSIDE RBA notes that while global economic risks are substantial, the effect on growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners has so far been limited.

RBA's Bullock: Did not explicitly consider case for a rate hike this meeting RBA Governor Bullock said it appears that further rate cuts are not necessary. RBA Governor Bullock said no timing has been set for any future moves; decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. RBA’s Bullock: Inflation Persistence Could Raise Policy Questions; Discussed Circumstances In Which Further Tightening May Be Needed • Says Persistent Inflation Would “Raise Questions” For Policy RBA Governor Bullock said the board believes downside risks have eased, while upside risks have increased.

RBA Gov. Bullock emphasized that the February board meeting will consider data showing whether inflation is failing to slow. Bullock says the RBA Board wants to convey that risks have shifted to the upside.