All Eyes on Fed Rate Cuts?

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Expectations about the growth in medical care costs increased to its highest level since January 2014. Labor market expectations improved slightly, but respondents’ perceptions and expectations about their current and future financial situation became more negative. The survey was fielded from November 1 through November 30, 2025. The main findings from the November 2025 Survey are: Inflation • Median inflation expectations in November remained unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon (3.2%) and remained steady at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons (3.0%). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons US NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Nov: 3.20% (prev 3.24%) - 3-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.0% (prev 3.0%) - 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.0% (prev 3.0%)

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