Fed: Disentangled From Latest Data | Metals Mine

  • Fed: Disentangled From Latest Data

    From srikonomics.substack.com

    As the first set of post-shutdown official data started to arrive over the past week, the major uncertainty for markets ought to have been what the Federal Open Market Committee will decide to do with the latest information at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. However, that is just not the case. Equity investors seem to have ignored the latest data as long as the narrative of imminent easing remains intact even though the case for a rate cut looks thin based on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The labor market is not weakening; inflation progress has stalled; and inflation expectations — especially those ... (full story)

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Trader#F60B
Dec 6, 2025 11:51am
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If prices followed logic and data then trading would be easy for everyone instead of being one of the hardest jobs out there. Investors do things that many times don’t seem to make sense. However this is usually do to participants estimating where things will be months in advance. So people buy and sell not on today’s or yesterday’s news or data, but on where they perceive things to be many months from now.

So obviously people are expecting the job market to continue weakening which will almost certainly cause deflation. So this article fails to understand that financial markets are most often discount mechanisms for 3 to 6 months from now, not today.
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Mamki
Dec 6, 2025 1:24pm
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Sad my hurry
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Trader#1C40
Dec 7, 2025 6:46am
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The article is not happy about it, but says:
"If you thought that it would make the Fed think twice about lowering the rate further, you would be wrong."

When talking about all the possible future Fed Chair:
"They are rooting for a rate cut."

And again, not happy about it, but says:
"...expect the Fed to cut for the third time this year at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. At his press conference that day, Powell could also signal that the central bank remains open to lowering rates further in 2026..."

Another unhappy comment:
"...all leading contenders have taken to the media to emphasize their openness to lowering the policy rate, Hassett has distinguished himself by going much further—publicly calling for multiple rate cuts..."



Whatever article I read, the story is the same (even if they are not happy about it):
Cut, cut, cut, cut, cut.
And further cuts.

My EURUSD sell positions doesn't look good.
And I'm unhappy about it.
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Trader#A48D
Dec 6, 2025 12:42pm
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crude oil go down
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