AU: International Trade in Goods, August 2025

In an environment of heightened risk in the international system, stress events have the potential to interact with – and amplify – existing vulnerabilities and generate disruptive shocks. While April’s sharp global spike in market volatility did not give rise to significant financial stability concerns in Australia, this was likely helped by its short duration. Volatility in international financial markets has subsided over recent months – to long-run average levels or below – as the prospect of the most severe form of retaliatory global trade war receded somewhat. However, the international outlook remains clouded in uncertainty, including in relation to fiscal sustainability concerns in some advanced economies and the possible lagged effects of tariff increases on prices and activity in the United States. The risk of regulatory fragmentation across the international financial system has also increased, as jurisdictions pursue diverging priorities, including in banking and digital assets regulation. These uncertainties add to the growing risks to the financial system stemming from cyber and operational incidents. Physical and transition risks associated with climate change, including rising uninsurability, also remain of concern. With such a wide range of risks, the possibility of a material shock to the international financial system is rising. RBA: AUSTRALIA FINANCIAL SYSTEM WELL POSITIONED TO ENDURE ANY MARKET SHOCKS, GLOBAL DOWNTURN ... RBA Flags Asset Correction, Sovereign Debt Market Strain as Risks RBA: Majority of households keeping up with mortgage payments, have liquidity and equity buffers RBA: CASH FLOW PRESSURE ON HOUSEHOLDS EASED WITH LOWER RATES, INFLATION ...