US CPI Preview: Could a Cool CPI Put a 50bps Fed Cut in Play?

Calm before the storm. Typical for any upcoming Fed meeting...
50bps is more likely than the markets think, and we could definitely see another surprise by the Fed as we did the last year in September as well. Stocks and crypto will go ballistic if the Fed cuts by 50bps. However, I expect heavy manipulation, especially on USD pairs.

What we know is that 2y yield is currently around 3.5%. We know liquidity is drying up, and it's actually getting critical. We know jobs market is actually terrible. CPI data (which is obviously wrong and deceptive) is floating in the range from 2% - 3%. Deceptive and wrong or not, the Fed uses reported numbers, because they're useless and overpaid for doing nothing just like politicians.

I don't see in which world the USD is going to appreciate, because even 25bps rate cut could be followed by the most dovish comments possible since the labor market is collapsing. We'll see... but it seems to me that risk-on is staying with us for the time being.

I'm not a betting person. I would never lower myself to such a vacuous hobby, because I'd be invariably wrong.

So, if I said that I wouldn't be surprised to see CPI to come in under expectations, even I wouldn't take any notice of myself.

Market seems to be indifferent to everything i.e. Inflation, employment and cuts

Hello.

In my opinion, the US dollar will surprise everyone with its increase. Trump has proven that violating rules is a game for him to amass wealth... I hope I'm wrong and what most people expect happens.

Definitely yes, imo

August CPI will be the most crucial data for stock-market investors this week.

Things have been pretty crazy lately.

Either the market doesn't believe the fed is going to cut or so much money is pouring into the US to frontrun the stock market jump when the fed does cut.

What does this have to do with today’s CPI release? The bulk of your posts are political commentary than relevant analysis

Also, Charlie Kirk assassination happened. Who ordered the hit...? Same thing is happening in Germany where more than 10 politicians are assassinated recently. Something big is happening and we should connect the dots before it's too late.

News Date, September 11 (CPI). hmmm! Watch ur 6.

Don't feed the Gambler in your head (we all have it - to varying degrees). When it wants to Punt (Gamble) on the LONG SHOT. Put that Dumbass back in its place.

All you need to say (yes, to yourself) is:

OKAY COWBOY/GIRL HERE WE GO WITH THE 1/5,000,000,000,000,000 CRASHES YOU'VE PREDICTED... AGAIN

STFU AND JUST GO WITH THE FLOW

It works, trust me. You may need to hit him/her/it a few times. But they'll get the picture eventually. Because they be dumb, and they're ALWAYS wrong. You beat them easily with TRUTH and FACT.

YOU FAIL MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. I'M BETTER OFF USING A DAMN COIN TOSS.

I trust his calls about as far as I can throw him based on the track record he has put before me. I am just a passenger remember? I listen to whoever is most dominant at the time inside my head. I also can set them all straight when they get a bit out of hand. Anyone remember Herman's Head? lolz.... Well worth the dig/watch.

Trading is a life long battle with these nut cases. The sooner you develop techniques to control and TRAIN them, the better.

The pullback will come. Interest rates will go up, they'll go down. Whatever.

For now, it's strong and until weakness appears. I am a buyer since I cannot support myself in the market like major participants can.

I am therefore somewhat of a Glorified Gambler. I have my system, I follow it to the T. Sometimes I get walloped but my losses are checked. Most of the time, however, I come out on top.


The market can stay irrational longer than you (ANY OF US) can stay solvent.

We all have ONE RULE really. Same same as LIFE.

You must always live to fight another day.

Trade well and Safe

Might I also add that you should not be too rough with these people (again, watch Herman's Head).

I find that being very strict when they get out of line (zero tolerance policy) but be nice and guiding. TEACH them. Use them to YOUR advantage - think MINIONS

Give them ALL tasks and watch things TRANSFORM inside your head when they all start working in synchronicity instead of a cacophony of noise. You get enough of that from the outside trust me. You NEED to get the lunatics inside your head under control.



The lunatic is in YOUR (OUR) head

Gotta keep the Loonies on the Path

Trading is 95% mental, 5% strategy. You can toss a coin and still win.

Once you get the 95% under control, things get SO MUCH EASIER.

Anything between 50 and 75 bp is very good for USD.

So we buy gold?

everything point out USD will lose value yet EUR/USD drops. wth?

After Epstein birthday book, TACO has to invent something new to distract world attention from his lolita express journeys.

Short Xau/Usd

I don't think.

trade after the news,

Did Charlie Kirk have freedom of speech?