The Thin Edge of the Tariffs Wedge is Slowly Creeping Into US Inflation

Many thanks, Emily, for the kind introduction. It is a pleasure to be here with all of you, and with those who are joining online. I am really delighted to participate in the 2025 NABE Seminar on Economic Measurement. This is a topic I have cared deeply about for a long time. Early on, opportunities to use data to illuminate important ideas helped spur my interest in economics – and data analysis was one of the most fun parts of my economics education. I continue to enjoy learning about new approaches and methods for using different types of data to measure economic activity. And I see programs dedicated to economic measurement, like this one, as very important. A mindset focused on data and rigorous empirical analysis has been invaluable throughout my professional career. It has played a role in my research, my teaching, and my data-based approach to decision-making in administrative and leadership positions. Most recently, the use of economic data has been critically important in my role as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, where I participate on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the monetary policymaking body of our nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve is highly data-intensive and data-focused, and I truly appreciate being part of an organization rooted in reliance on data, facts, and empirical analysis, without pre-conceived biases. In my remarks today, I’ll first briefly mention the importance of timely, reliable data of various types for monetary policymaking. I’ll then spend most of my time discussing some of the ways I use economic data in practice. My goal is to give you a “look under the hood” at how data and analytics underpin my willingness to make statements like “the economy is in a good place overall,” or “wage growth is not a significant FED'S COLLINS: TARIFFS WILL WEIGH FOR A TIME ON WHAT IS NOW STRONG ECONOMY ECONOMY IS CURRENTLY IN A 'GOOD PLACE' OVERALL CORE GOODS INFLATION SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF TARIFF IMPACT FED'S COLLINS: TARIFFS TO BOOST INFLATION OVER SECOND HALF OF 2025, CORE INFLATION AROUND 3% BY YEAR’S END TARIFFS WILL SLOW HIRING BUT 'NOT NECESSARILY BY A LARGE AMOUNT' STRONG BUSINESS, HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS MAY BLUNT TARIFF PAIN GOOD PROFIT MARGINS MAY LIMIT TARIFF… FED'S COLLINS: IT'S TIME FOR FED TO BE 'ACTIVELY PATIENT' WITH MONETARY POLICY

Germany has reached an agreement with the European Commission on a multi-year fiscal plan that allows the country to ramp up investment now while committing to tighten spending in ...

TRUMP SAYS WILL BE FIGHTING CHINA 'IN A VERY FRIENDLY FASHION' TRUMP: NATIONS THAT DON'T OPEN UP WILL PAY A SUBSTANTIAL TARIFF TRUMP ON AI: U.S. IS WAY AHEAD OF CHINA Trump: More investments will be announced in the coming weeks.

Lord Mayor, thank you for inviting us back for a second time in your mayoralty. I am going to use my time to tackle two subjects. I’m probably breaking a rule of good speech making because the connection between the two is slender – I’m not going to overdo the connection. They are both topical and highly relevant, that’s my justification. The first is big picture – the world economic situation and the need to refocus and restore multilateral institutions. The second concerns payments here in the UK. To say that the state of the global economy and the impact of tariff announcements is in the news and significant is an understatement. The shifts we have witnessed – and continue to witness – mark a generational change in the system of trade amongst nations. They are by no means the first such shifts, even if they are the most sudden and fundamental in the post-war era. Recent events have exposed fault lines in the multilateral system of relations between nations, including in the global trading system, and a perceived failure to deal with what are seen as persistent global imbalances. What do I mean by the multilateral system? It’s the economic assessment and governance that comes from two areas. First are the multilateral institutions – the IMF, World Bank, OECD and WTO, and – to recognise a personal interest as I Chair it – the Financial Stability Board. The second area is the multi-country decision-making bodies that reinforce these institutions – with the G20 and G7 being important here, as the source of co-ordination and consensus building in a number of key areas including trade. MORE BOE'S BAILEY: RECENT EVENTS HAVE EXPOSED FAULT LINES IN MULTILATERAL RELATIONS AND A PERCEIVED FAILURE TO DEAL WITH PERCEIVED IMBALANCES #bankofengland #boe #ukeconomy #trade #tariffs #andrewbailey #mansionhousespeech #digitalpayments BOE’S BAILEY: LARGE DEFICIT NATIONS FACE GREATEST MARKET PRESSURE || SAYS NOT YET CONVINCED ON NECESSITY OF RETAIL CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY MANSION HOUSE SPEECH: TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENTS MARK A GENERATIONAL CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM #bankofengland #boe #ukeconomy #trade #tariffs #andrewbailey #mansionhousespeech #digitalpayments BOE’S BAILEY: MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS KEY TO SOUND POLICYMAKING || SAYS FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED