Trump: Could have been much harsher on trade; could go higher with tariffs

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the June 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations ticked down at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment and job loss expectations improved. Spending growth expectations slightly declined, while household income growth expectations increased. Households were more optimistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access. The survey was fielded from June 2 through June 30, 2025. The main findings from the June 2025 Survey are: Inflation Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% at the one-year-ahead horizon. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (2.6%) horizons in June. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons. Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—decreased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and was unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023. NY Fed consumer survey: 1Yr inflation exp. 3.0%, down from 3.2% 3Yr inflation exp. 3.0%, unch 5Yr inflation exp. 2.6%, unch