Trump unveils first wave of steeper US tariffs in push for deals | Metals Mine

  • Trump unveils first wave of steeper US tariffs in push for deals

    From channelnewsasia.com

    President Donald Trump on Monday (Jul 7) began telling trade partners - from powerhouse suppliers like Japan and South Korea to minor players - that sharply higher United States tariffs will start Aug 1, marking a new phase in the trade war he launched earlier this year. The imposition of the 25 per cent levy on US importers of all goods from key Asian allies Japan and South Korea rattled Wall Street, with the S&P 500 Index suffering its biggest drop in three weeks. The 14 countries sent letters so far, which included smaller US exporters like Serbia, Thailand and Tunisia, hinted at opportunities for additional ... (full story)

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Polimini
Jul 8, 2025 7:21am — Edited
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Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} You are right with the pain China (and other countries) will feel if things keep going the wrong way. But the pain will be felt on both sides. Chinese factories have to close their doors. But in the US will happen the same. Farmers/Shippers/Truckdrivers/Wholesalers and Retailers (etc) also will not find replacements in a short time. Trump wants to bring back production to the US, but that will not happen overnight as well. It takes years to start up production on a scale China does now. Let alone finding the labour force to work in those...
That's nothing compared to the pain the Chinese and Japanese can bring to the US if they sell their US debt, even for a small amount. That's where the real leverage is.
That's what made commander TACO, commander TACO.
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Polimini
Jul 8, 2025 10:12am
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Quoting MisterWho
{quote} That's nothing compared to a kick in the balls . You're absolutely right about most of that, but it's a whole different matter. China has been selling US debt for some years now. It's public information, but just look at gold for example. In recent years, the session where prices have risen the most, meaning positive points minus negative points, has been the Asian session. Japan on the other hand, you have to understand that holding US debt isn't just considered safe, it's also an asset for the country. Japan's current situation doesn't...
Someone told Trump last time that he needed to move course. Was it the Chinese? who knows.
China was moving assets in a controlled way, a dump like the last time will have very different consequences as we seen.

Japan can and probably should diversify all that investment in US debt, all it takes is probably the right push, and maybe this is it. I doubt they will take this laying down, they are known to be very proud people.
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MisterWho
Jul 8, 2025 6:28am
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Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} As supplier you can have one big customer (US), but when that customer starts barking against you, you are in trouble. China has overcapacity but they have and will find other customers and spread their production over other customers now. That one big custoner they maybe gone lose now (US) is buying on an overstretched credit card for many years already which is unsustainable. They would lose them anyway in the future.
Have you seen how well Fukushima has bounced back? Things do recover, and countries adapt, that’s just how markets work.

But let’s be honest, you can’t just replace 30% of global demand overnight. That’s the point here.

Sure, the U.S. is running on credit, but that credit is still covering the bills for now. If that demand suddenly vanished, factories wouldn’t just find new buyers out of thin air, many would simply shut down, as we’ve seen recently.

Diversification helps, no doubt, but nothing comes close to matching U.S. demand at this scale or pace.

Also, what currency are these countries using to trade? Have you checked the USD demand index lately? Calling it a loss would be tough, especially if it helps balance trade over time.

And just to clarify, I’m not talking about some far-off scenario I imagined or supposed. This is about what’s happening now, backed by real data. I’m not bold enough to guess what countries might or might not pull off.

P.S. Love your quote phrase
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Dutchy Daxy
Jul 8, 2025 5:42am
Permalink
Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Are you for real? The first thing that would happen in that scenario is a global crash, India and China included. For your information, 1 out of every 3 dollars spent on imports worldwide comes from the U.S. So tell me, where would you send all that production? Who’s going to buy? Namibia? Do you know how many bankruptcies happened in China when the tariff war started? Overcapacity is no joke but of course, you have no idea. Come back down to Earth buddy.
As supplier you can have one big customer (US), but when that customer starts barking against you, you are in trouble.

China has overcapacity but they have and will find other customers and spread their production over other customers now.

That one big custoner they maybe gone lose now (US) is buying on an overstretched credit card for many years already which is unsustainable. They would lose them anyway in the future.
Reply
Dutchy Daxy
Jul 8, 2025 7:17am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Have you seen how well Fukushima has bounced back? Things do recover, and countries adapt, that’s just how markets work. But let’s be honest, you can’t just replace 30% of global demand overnight. That’s the point here. Sure, the U.S. is running on credit, but that credit is still covering the bills for now. If that demand suddenly vanished, factories wouldn’t just find new buyers out of thin air, many would simply shut down, as we’ve seen recently. Diversification helps, no doubt, but nothing comes close...
You are right with the pain China (and other countries) will feel if things keep going the wrong way. But the pain will be felt on both sides.

Chinese factories have to close their doors. But in the US will happen the same. Farmers/Shippers/Truckdrivers/Wholesalers and Retailers (etc) also will not find replacements in a short time.

Trump wants to bring back production to the US, but that will not happen overnight as well. It takes years to start up production on a scale China does now. Let alone finding the labour force to work in those factories.

So it looks they hold each other hostage. They have to continue into this "bad marriage" one way or an other.

PS the quote was not my idea. I saw it on an other website, but I love the phrase and I keep it in mind whatever trade I take.
Reply
MisterWho
Jul 8, 2025 4:58am
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Quoting mikelee
If everyone ignores him, and trade amongst themselves minus the US, US will be on its knees begging!
Are you for real? The first thing that would happen in that scenario is a global crash, India and China included.
For your information, 1 out of every 3 dollars spent on imports worldwide comes from the U.S. So tell me, where would you send all that production? Who’s going to buy? Namibia?
Do you know how many bankruptcies happened in China when the tariff war started? Overcapacity is no joke but of course, you have no idea.
Come back down to Earth buddy.
Reply
MisterWho
Jul 8, 2025 8:01am
Permalink
Quoting Polimini
{quote} That's nothing compared to the pain the Chinese and Japanese can bring to the US if they sell their US debt, even for a small amount. That's were the real leverage is. That's what made commander TACO, commander TACO.
That's nothing compared to a kick in the balls .
You're absolutely right about most of that, but it's a whole different matter. China has been selling US debt for some years now. It's public information, but just look at gold for example. In recent years, the session where prices have risen the most, meaning positive points minus negative points, has been the Asian session.

Japan on the other hand, you have to understand that holding US debt isn't just considered safe, it's also an asset for the country. Japan's current situation doesn't allow the BOJ to sell those assets. Doing that would basically mean bankruptcy for them.
Of course, when we talk about the percentage of the debt held by the BOJ it's actually much smaller because most of it is in the hands of private investors. The chances of them all selling US debt are basically zero, so I'm sorry but calling that a "leverage"... is having some faith.
Reply
ww3361
Jul 7, 2025 10:45pm
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Most countries have a policy of not making deals with terrorists.
Reply
Polimini
Jul 8, 2025 3:00am
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Quoting mikelee
If everyone ignores him, and trade amongst themselves minus the US, US will be on its knees begging!
I doubt there is that much coordination power in the world, but i would pay money to see that happening.
Reply
ww3361
Jul 8, 2025 3:06am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} I doubt there is that much coordination power in the world, but i would pay money to see that happening.
The default stance might manifest this way, in the medium term:

You don't enable a belligerent/terrorist by negotiating with them. This includes public declarations that you're not negotiating with them.

So in time... I speculate you will see a silly orange man left to die on his hill.
Reply
Trader#CD54
Jul 8, 2025 6:10am
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Quoting MisterWho
{quote} Are you for real? The first thing that would happen in that scenario is a global crash, India and China included. For your information, 1 out of every 3 dollars spent on imports worldwide comes from the U.S. So tell me, where would you send all that production? Who’s going to buy? Namibia? Do you know how many bankruptcies happened in China when the tariff war started? Overcapacity is no joke but of course, you have no idea. Come back down to Earth buddy.
Yeah buddy... You might be the one who needs to get on a plane and see the world with your own eyes. It's you who is living inside a bubble.

You talk about banks closing in China due to the tariffs? Lol, have you ever taken some time to read into it yourself instead of reading a few news articles that fit your narrative? The banks you're talking about are rural/small banks, where annually 20/30 banks closed since 2010.
I could go on but i know you won't take the time to read actual information so let me give you a TLDR:

The tariff war itself didn’t trigger a sudden wave of bank bankruptcies in China.
Instead, the nation was already undergoing gradual banking restructuring especially among smaller, property-sector exposed institutions.

Annual closures in the normal era hover around 20–30 smaller banks, similar to what we see in years of mild stress.

But by 2024, broader economic and property related pressure led to sharp surges colloquially tied to the earlier slowdown not a direct one-to-one effect with tariffs.
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ww3361
Jul 8, 2025 8:39am
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You underestimate to delicacy of the global status quo.

Any intervention… doesn’t matter from whom… could collapse the economic superposition we’ve witnessed since the mid 90s.
Reply
mikelee
Jul 7, 2025 11:14pm
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If everyone ignores him, and trade amongst themselves minus the US, US will be on its knees begging!
Reply
Trader#5DDF
Jul 8, 2025 4:03am
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I can see the headline now on July 31st, tariff deadline extended by another 100 days
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