-
Inflation Guy’s US CPI Summary (May 2025)
Going into the CPI announcement this morning, the economist consensus was for +0.17% (seasonally adjusted) on headline CPI m/m and +0.28% on core. Market changes this month have been very contained, partly because of the usual summer doldrums kicking in and partly (most likely) because of the degree of uncertainty surrounding all of the chaotic policy changes that have taken place in 2025. The effects of these changes (and more to come!) are still making their way through the system. This is a calm surface over a roiling ocean. Economists continue to debate (and their analysis, to me, seems in many cases to be ... (full story)