US Consumer Price Index - April 2025 | Metals Mine

  • US Consumer Price Index - April 2025

    From bls.gov

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index. The index for food, in ... (full story)

Added at 7:36am

  • Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected

    From cnbc.com

    Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday. The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate and slightly below the annual forecast for 2.4%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was ... (full story)

Comment Options
chemosi
May 13, 2025 8:24am
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"Despite Mainstream Panic, US Consumer Price Inflation Tumbles To Lowest In Over 4 Years"
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...t-over-4-years

Soft data vs Hard data
"
That's quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)...
"
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EventsTrader
May 13, 2025 7:37am
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Softer than expected.
CPI m/m to three decimals: 0.221%
Core CPI m/m to three decimals: 0.237%

Those are still high monthly values. Annualized that would come out to about 2.7% for CPI and 2.9% for Core.

Insights:

Utility (piped) gas service (+ 3.6%) drove much of the energy-services rebound, its largest m/m gain this year.

Energy services overall (+ 1.5%) rose sharply on higher natural-gas and utility bills after March’s dip.

Shelter costs (+ 0.3%) (rent and owners’ equivalent rent) again accounted for over half of core CPI’s m/m uptick.

Food inflation ran 2.8% over the past 12 months—but within that, meats, poultry, fish & eggs surged 7.0%, while fruits & vegetables eased 0.9% year-on-year.


Airline fares (– 5.3%) posted their steepest drop in over two years, exerting downward pressure on transportation services.

Fuel oil (– 1.3%) continued its spring decline, contributing to the energy-commodities pullback.

Used cars & trucks (– 0.7%) fell for a second straight month, signaling easing pressures in vehicle markets.

The overall food index slipped 0.1% in April, as a 0.4% drop in food-at-home prices outweighed a 0.4% rise in food-away-from-home costs.
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AaronWard
May 13, 2025 7:59am — Edited
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This was a shocker. Not only did the dreaded tariff inflation did not show up, it printed a negative number. Also, for now we have a large overhang of all the excess product that was bought in frontrunning the tariffs, a significant drop in global oil prices and a general global trend of reduced inflation.
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ffghost
May 13, 2025 8:29am
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Quoting chemosi
"Despite Mainstream Panic, US Consumer Price Inflation Tumbles To Lowest In Over 4 Years" https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...t-over-4-years Soft data vs Hard data " That's quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)... " {image}...
Tail wagging dog?

How could a survey respondent POSSIBLY know what inflation will be? I never understood that. I watch this stuff daily and if they called me, I would have to say "There is zero way to know that. Maybe higher? Maybe lower."

I guess the survey speaks to sentiment, but that is the hardest thing on which to invest: it can change on a tweet.
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AaronWard
May 13, 2025 8:43am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Tail wagging dog? How could a survey respondent POSSIBLY know what inflation will be? I never understood that. I watch this stuff daily and if they called me, I would have to say "There is zero way to know that. Maybe higher? Maybe lower." I guess the survey speaks to sentiment, but that is the hardest thing on which to invest: it can change on a tweet.
I think the secret of value trading is to trade the difference between perception and reality. Seeing value where others don't (or the opposite) is what drives good buy and sell decisions. As for the problem with the tweet...well it is a problem but the underlying value doesn't change with a tweet, only the price does.
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Abouelzelouf
May 13, 2025 7:59am
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Quoting Ftmofx
There is no way for the Fed to cut rates as a data-dependent Fed. Now, the Fed will follow Trump, which is a big rate cut few times, and 50 bps is at least. Gold will be bullish on the Fed rate cut bias until done. In addition, the tariff decision is resolved.
Hold your big guns .
Not so fast! this is just one report, and the fed will wait little more they will not jump so big so soon.
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GainingBucks
May 13, 2025 12:12pm
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Quoting chemosi
"Despite Mainstream Panic, US Consumer Price Inflation Tumbles To Lowest In Over 4 Years" https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...t-over-4-years Soft data vs Hard data " That's quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)... " {image}...
It appears UMich is not very smart and extremely biased
Reply
Ftmofx
May 13, 2025 7:47am
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There is no way for the Fed to cut rates as a data-dependent Fed. Now, the Fed will follow Trump, which is a big rate cut few times, and 50 bps is at least. Gold will be bullish on the Fed rate cut bias until done. In addition, the tariff decision is resolved.
chemosi
May 13, 2025 8:34am
Permalink
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Tail wagging dog? How could a survey respondent POSSIBLY know what inflation will be? I never understood that. I watch this stuff daily and if they called me, I would have to say "There is zero way to know that. Maybe higher? Maybe lower." I guess the survey speaks to sentiment, but that is the hardest thing on which to invest: it can change on a tweet.
The problem is who are managing the survey and what is their greatest fear....
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ww3361
May 13, 2025 7:33am
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Ok peeps. Print money, make babies. World saved.
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Trader#5E8D
May 13, 2025 8:26am
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Dems are famous for their ability to manipulate the narratives and data. Everyone remembers famous empty allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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Ftmofx
May 13, 2025 8:28am
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} Once this CPI goes up, how does it affect the market? on Gold and on S&P?
CPI came in lower, which is bullish for Dollar and market.
.
CPI lower= FED rate cut= Inflation rises=Weaker USD
Moodymood
May 13, 2025 7:36am
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Once this CPI goes up, how does it affect the market? on Gold and on S&P?
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amineg
May 13, 2025 8:54am
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...
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 12:17pm
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Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} CPI lower= FED rate cut= Inflation rises=Weaker USD
Wrong.

When inflation is low, a currency is relatively strong, which has a positive impact on its exchange rate.
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Trader#F54B
May 13, 2025 4:09pm
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} Why don't you show them how it's done, demo forex factory trader?
Why don't these biased institutions stop lying with their projections and then end up with egg on their face when the numbers come out?
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 6:54pm
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Quoting Trader#F54B
{quote} Why don't these biased institutions stop lying with their projections and then end up with egg on their face when the numbers come out?
No one is lying, institutions go by data just like the rest of us. Learn to trade properly rookie.
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Trader#7198
May 13, 2025 8:24pm
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} No one is lying, institutions go by data just like the rest of us. Learn to trade properly rookie.
If everyone bought into your apocalyptic doom-mongering, they'd all be dead broke. I hope you are. I hope you shorted everything.
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Trader#B295
May 13, 2025 7:35am
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Once this CPI goes up, how does it affect the market? on Gold and on S&P?
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Trader#38A2
May 13, 2025 7:41am
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Bad for USD
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Trader#B108
May 13, 2025 7:48am
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Signs of recession?
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 8:11am
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Quoting Trader#B295
Once this CPI goes up, how does it affect the market? on Gold and on S&P?
CPI came in lower, which is bullish for Dollar and market.
Reply
Trader#B62C
May 13, 2025 8:46am
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reciprocal tariffs delay in april for 90 days. products front running caused cpi to not hit yet.
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Trader#0694
May 13, 2025 8:55am
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7% YoY rise in meat inflation means the herd will have to start eating eachother, bullish for corn.
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 12:28pm
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Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} It appears UMich is not very smart and extremely biased
Why don't you show them how it's done, demo forex factory trader?
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Trader#0E0D
May 13, 2025 1:42pm
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} CPI came in lower, which is bullish for Dollar and market.
Ummm NO, not Dollar
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 6:54pm
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Quoting Trader#0E0D
{quote} Ummm NO, not Dollar
Yes lower inflation, attracts more investors, which is bullish for stock market and dollar.
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