No huge surprises but no signs that we're returning to the Fed's 2.0% anytime soon.


Core CPI y/y increase was 3.2%, showing sustained underlying inflationary pressures.

Gasoline increased sharply by 4.4% m/m, contributing significantly to the overall CPI rise.

Utility (Piped) Gas Service up 2.4% m/m, reflecting higher natural gas prices.

Food at Home increased 0.3% m/m, driven by gains in cereals and bakery products (+1.2%) and meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.6%).

Shelter up 4.6% y/y, the largest contributor to the annual core CPI increase, signaling continued pressures in housing affordability.

Motor Vehicle Insurance surged +11.3% y/y, the largest annual increase among tracked categories, reflecting higher claim costs and premiums.


Fuel Oil declined by -1.1% m/m, showing volatility in heating oil prices.

Used Cars and Trucks dropped -1.0% m/m, continuing the trend of declining vehicle prices.

Fruits and Vegetables declined by -0.1% m/m, after modest increases in previous months.

Nonalcoholic Beverages fell by -0.4%, reversing the previous month’s gain.

Energy: Declined by -0.5% y/y, largely due to falling fuel oil and gasoline prices. Fuel Oil declined -13.1% y/y, reflecting a dramatic drop in heating oil costs amid improved supply conditions.

This is an absurd claim. I think you need to educate yourself on global economics...

Don't forget that WTI oil has increased a whopping 13% over the last fews weeks and hasn't had time to work through the system. FED won't be in any hurry to cut rates as they aren't as ignorant as Ftmofx

Ha..ha. ha..you proved yourself as ....Study more. This is not a revenge area mate....

Yea we bet u did

Interesting.
While Yoy is close the swap priced in, 10y yield is falling.
But cpi up from 2.7% to 2.9%

Could it be market priced in for a recession???
Gold up(safe haven), UST10y down. SPX UP(liquidity trap)

forecast for this year is 2,5%

I reckon the USD index’s gonna take a bit of a hit in the short run.

Gold is bullish while fed needs more series of good data to cut rate.
50bpt is the consensus among top major banks including goldman sachs and BofA.

relax there now. m/m ticked down slightly while the rest came in as expected (sticky and higher).

At this time I could not relax. I am expecting at least 50 BPS rate cut as per data depending FED rules.

Keep waiting. Data does not suggest a cut. A slight tick down in the m/m is no reason to start the year with a big rate cut.

Definitely a good pullback likely. May even break out of uptrend DXY channel and consolidate. However, I don't think dollar will show true reversal signs unless bond market cools down and/or FED chatter changes.

You are correct, but it can be a joke area I actually do have to thank you, your comments made me dig into it and realize I wasn't factoring in the consumer/producer dynamics. So seriously thank you.

After PPI, CPI went down. Big FED rate cut is coming. Big buy Gold, Nazdaq, US30 and S7P 500

WE SELL GOLD STILL ...
WE ARE NOT FIGHTING ...TAKE ADVANTAGE ...NEXT TIME BUDDIES

This is very interesting. You have a good knowledge it seems to know what is important. Stock market derives value from the debt market. Now, 10y yield dropping like this today even though inflation came higher means only one thing. Fed intervened and started buying massive amounts of debt to bring the yields down which of course is destroying the purschasing power of the USD even further (not necessarily against other currencies which are also in a free fall). We'll see what'll happen to the yields these days and during the Fed meeting on 29th of January. I follow the debt market and I have rarely seen a move like this.

You'll know the time has come when you see an uncontrollable sell-off in the debt market.

For me a rate cut by the Fed will be something unlikely, recent data on the American labor market shows signs of improvement with low demand for unemployment benefits, if Trump's project is to reduce the American import dependence and supporting the increase in domestic demand, these prospects will have an increase in wages and therefore in spending on which is inflationary, this could leave free room for the fed to raise these rates to catch up with its target of 2%, I would like to mention that for me this drop in basic consumer price m/m, was caused by the pessimistic consumers who are cautious, because they anticipate a deterioration in future economic health!!