UK GDP m/m

The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets. For credibility’s sake, policymakers had only one choice – press ahead with the planned 25-basis-point rate reduction but present it as a ‘hawkish cut’. Fortunately for the doves and struggling European businesses, the case for further policy easing has strengthened since the last gathering in July when rates were kept on hold. Headline inflation dipped to 2.2% y/y in August and the rebound in euro ...

Gross domestic product data from the UK is the major economic report due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to publish UK GDP data for the second quarter and industrial output and foreign trade figures for June. The economy is expected to grow 0.6 percent sequentially after rising 0.7 percent in the prior quarter. The UK visible trade deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 16 billion in June from GBP 17.9 billion in May. Economists forecast ...

There is no need to debate whether it was tightening by the Bank of Japan or the fourth consecutive rise in the US unemployment rate that spurred the dramatic market reaction at the start of last week. It seems reasonable that both played a role. And the dramatic unwinding of short yen positions, which appeared to help fuel a recovery of the Swiss franc, Chinese yuan began before the Bank of Japan meeting and the US employment report. Moreover, on the eve of the July 31 BOJ and FOMC meetings, the derivatives market had two Fed rate ...

Four drivers are shaping the investment climate. First, ahead of the run-off elections in France, the market feels more comfortable that Le Pen will not secure a parliamentary majority. The French premium over Germany narrowed to 65 bp, falling by about 14 bp last week, and arguable a supportive factor for the euro. Second, the British election was largely a foregone conclusion, and Labour did secure majority. It ought not be construed as a shift to the left as Labour received less than 2% more votes that in did in 2019 and the ...

US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate - Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? - Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers - RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data