Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

Tuesday March 8, 2016
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Chart #1: On the 1 Hour, the application indicates the market is forming a lower wick. Market direction remains Short while below 1273.77.

On the Day, the application indicates the market is forming an upper wick. Market direction remains Short while below 1276.11.

​Chart #2: On the 2 Hour, the application indicates we have a High and the market is forming an upper wick. When the application indicates a High, market direction remains Short while below 1277.68.


​Chart #3: On the 1 Hour, the application indicates the market has completed the lower wick and further indicates we now have a Low. The market remains Long while above 1272.46.

Chart #4: On the 2 Hour, the market is Short. We have a retracement level @1273.78.

On the Day, we have a retracement level @1274.45. Remember, on this timeframe the market remains Short while below 1276.11.

Chart #5: On the 8 Hour, the market is now Short. We have a retracement level @1270.55.

On the Day, the retracement level is now @1273.73.

On the Short trade above, we now need to wait for the application to tell us when to take our profit on a lower wick!
It's that simple.

Notice the market has now reached the 4 Hour demand level on Chart #4 above (Post #1,102).

Notice on the 1 Hour timeframe of the chart (would correspond to Chart #5 above), the application indicates the market is forming a lower wick. Although we would interpret this lower wick as being lower wick of the 2 Hour timeframe, it could also potentially become the lower wick of the 4 Hour, 8 Hour and Day timeframe as well.

​Sample Statement:

NOTE:


​I'm off for the Day. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to post them here.

Cheers.

Wednesday March 9, 2016

​Chart #1: On the 2 Hour, the application indicates "Target Low" which means the market is expected to turn Short. The targets are (1) 1247.82 followed by (2) 1246.48.

​On the 4 Hour, the market remains Long while above 1251.72 (i.e. Long level).

Chart #2: On the 1 Hour, the market is Short. We have a retracement level @1249.37.

On the 2 Hour, the market is "Establish Low​" . The next target low is 1239.97.

On the 4 Hour, the market is forming a lower wick. The market is Short while below 1251.73.

On the Day, we have a High and the market remains Short below the retracement level @1261.72.

Chart #3: On the 1 Hour, the market is Short. The retracement level is now 1247.02.

​On the 2 Hour, the market is "Establish Low". The next target low is 1237.62.

On the 4 Hour, the market is forming a lower wick. The market is Short while below 1251.73.

On the 8 Hour, the market is forming a lower wick. The market is Short while below 1246.61.

On the Day, we have a High and the market remains Short while the retracement level @1259.37.

Chart #4: ​On the 4 Hour, the market has formed a lower wick and we have a Low. The market remains Long while above 1242.86.

On the 8 Hour, the market has formed a lower wick. The market remains Long while above 1242.86.

​On the Day, we have a High. The market remains Short while below the retracement level @1259.37.

​Chart #5 (Final): On the 8 Hour, the market has formed a lower wick and we have a Low. The market remains Long while above 1244.86 and we have a retracement level @1246.71.

​On the Day, we have a High. The market remains Short while below the retracement level @1259.37.

Sample Statement:​

Below is a copy of Chart #5 which I have posted yesterday in Post 1,108 above.

I also provided a snapshot taken a few minutes ago of a 15 Min Gold chart.

In my post I mentioned the market was Short below 1259.37 (retracement level on the Day) and Long while above 1244.86 (i.e. Long level on the 8 Hour).

As you can see this morning on the 15 Min chart, the market went Short as it approached 1259.37 (i.e. Red circle) and is now going Long from 1244.86 (i.e. Blue circle).

Thursday March 10, 2016

​Chart #1: On the 1 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1242.31. The next target high is 1244.31.

​On the 2 Hour, the application indicates "Target High" which means the market is Long towards 1244.61. The next target high is 1245.91.

On the 8 Hour, the market is forming an upper wick and the market remains Long while above 1241.86.

Chart #2: On the 1 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1242.31. The next target high is 1255.78.

​On the 2 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1244.61. The next target high is 1257.38.

On the 4 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1245.89. The next target high is 1256.96.

​On the 8 Hour, the market is forming an upper wick and the market remains Short while below 1253.46.

Chart #3: The 1 Hour, 2 Hour and 4 Hour remain unchanged.

​On the 8 Hour, the market is forming an upper wick and remains Long while above 1241.86.

Chart #4: On the 2 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1244.61. The next target high is 1260.90.

​On the 4 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1245.89. The next target high is 1260.48.

The 8 Hour remains unchanged except the Short level now reads 1256.98.

Chart #5: ​ On the 1 Hour, we have a Low and the market remains Long while above 1252.42.

On the 2 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1244.61. The next target high is 1268.38.

On the 4 Hour, the application indicates "Establish High" which means the market remains Long while above 1245.89. The next target high is 1267.96.

On the 8 Hour, the market is forming an upper wick and the market remains Long while above 1241.86. The Short level now reads 1264.46.

​On the Day, the market is forming a lower wick and the market remains Long while above 1239.00.

Chart #6 (Final): The Day remains the same except the retracement level (i.e. Short level) now reads 1248.43.

Sample Statement (Week 03.06.2016):

​Note: the statement below includes only a small sample of all trade setups for the period.

I have received several emails asking me to explain my rational for using 50 lots.

Here's how I determine my position size on any given trade:

(1) if the equity in the account is <=100,000$ USD, I use 1 lot per 1000$ of equity available in the account.

ex. 50,000$ equity = 50 lots ,

75,000$ equity = 75 lots,

100,000$ equity = 100 lots.

(2) for account with equity >100,000$ USD, I typically use 0.5 lots per 1000$ of equity available in the account.

The lot size will also depend on limitations of the broker I trade with.

The total Risk will normally stand between 15-25% but will never exceed 25% of equity.


Hope this answers all questions and concerns regarding positions size / risk.

The explanation above is meant to describe my own personal trading style. It is how I trade my own personal accounts.
​I am a professional trader and I trade for a living.
I do NOT in any way recommend or encourage anyone to use the same rational.

This post is similar to Post #1,110 above (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8805298) which illustrates how retracement levels work.

Below we have Chart #6 of Post #1,111 above and we also have a 30 Min Gold chart.

The retracement level on the Day chart for Thursday 10 is @1248.43 (i.e. Short level). As illustrated on the 30 Min chart, on the following Day (Friday 11) the market completes a full retracement to precisely that level (see Red circle). The time was 15:30 on Friday 11.

Monday March 14, 2016

Sample Statement:

Thursday March 17, 2016

Chart #1: On the 1 Hour, the market remains Short while below 1270.04 and we have a High. Also note that 1270.04 is a retracement level

​On the 4 Hour, the market remains Long while above 1264.61 and we have a retracement level @1265.17.

On the Day, the application indicates the market is forming an upper wick on the week and remains Long while above 1262.52. Also note that we have a retracement level @1266.43.

Chart #2 (Final): ​On the 4 Hour, the market remains Short while below 1269.43 and we have a high.

On the Day, the market remains Short while below 1266.43 and we have a High. Furthermore, the application indicates the market has completed the upper wick on the Week.

Below are 1 minute charts for Gold. ​

Chart (i) The market touches on the Short retracement level on the Day @1266.43 (i.e. blue circle) and goes Long.

Chart (ii) Now the market touches on the Long retracement level on the Day @1262.52 (i.e. blue circle) and goes Long.

(see Chart #1 in Post #1,116 above) http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1458215069

On the FIA (Financial Instrument Analyzer) chart below we observe the following:

(1) On the 2 Hour, the application indicates the market remains Short while below 1268.94 (i.e. Short retracement level),

(2) On the 1 Hour, the application indicates the market remains Long while above 1265.66 (i.e. Long retracement level).

On the 1 minute chart taken from the trading platform, the red circle corresponds to the Short retracement level on the 2 hour while the blue circle on the right corresponds to the Long retracement level on the 1 Hour.

As you can see from the charts below, the application is capable of telling you ahead of time and precisely at what level the market will change direction on any given timeframe.

​See Chart #2 (Final) in Post #1,116 above which is my last comment for today.

Sample Statement (Week 03.13.2016):

Sample Cumulative Statement (03.07.2016 - 03.18.2016):