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  • #26,101
  • Aug 17, 2015 4:42am Aug 17, 2015 4:42am
@1117

Pretty volatile but patterns are good..

Long again from here..
Hello World!
  • #26,102
  • Aug 17, 2015 8:34am Aug 17, 2015 8:34am
Quoting faraz37
1132-34 is a good resistance might push back to 1112-1115 area just to move back to 1155 area which is fib area since the bull run back in 2007-8. It would be interesting to see how gold reacts to these areas. From the downside, i believe 1198-96 area is a critical support level.. if broken we could see a much bearish action especially if it breaks 1182-3 area. Overall IMHO gold is bearish as long as it is setteled below 1155.
Agree. We could see spike to 1150 region as stops are taken out-especially if FOMC minutes indicate anything other than rate hike (not likely)...but bias is still bearish.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #26,103
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:01pm Aug 17, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} Agree. We could see spike to 1150 region as stops are taken out-especially if FOMC minutes indicate anything other than rate hike (not likely)...but bias is still bearish.
I completely agree with you. It is bearish, fed is likely to increase (whenever it will) on 0.25% basis at a time which would be enough to keep putting pressure on gold. Another thing I notice is that silver movement is getting widely out of sync with gold, which maybe because of its industrial use. Correction of my previous post:From the downside, i believe 1098-96 area is a critical support level.. if broken we could see a much bearish action especially if it breaks 1082-3 area. Overall IMHO gold is bearish as long as it is setteled below 1155.
  • #26,104
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:51pm Aug 17, 2015 5:51pm
Quoting faraz37
{quote} I completely agree with you. It is bearish, fed is likely to increase (whenever it will) on 0.25% basis at a time which would be enough to keep putting pressure on gold. Another thing I notice is that silver movement is getting widely out of sync with gold, which maybe because of its industrial use. Correction of my previous post:From the downside, i believe 1098-96 area is a critical support level.. if broken we could see a much bearish action especially if it breaks 1082-3 area. Overall IMHO gold is bearish as long as it is setteled below...
As probably many traders are doing, I've been reading everything concerning Fed actions in the past, and reactions to interest rate increases after long periods of loose monetary policy. The one thing missing from many analysis, is that the current period of low rates combined with several rounds of QE, is a historical precedent. This time is different?

It does seems likely the Fed will raise rates in September, even if that puts the USA into a recession next year. One can debate the merits of Fed raising rates in the middle of a seemingly deflationary period with rather tepid U.S. and global growth, but one of the over riding factors could be geo-politics in addition to obvious risks of having and keeping interest rates at 0%. Simply, an increase in rates...a small, slow increase...keeps the USD as a reserve currency for a longer period (the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry), prolongs China's global ambitions to such status while forcing them to float their currency before they are ready as well as releasing gold holdings, gives the EU and U.K some wiggle room to increase exports (though rates are likely to go up in the U.K next), and goes a long way in keeping Russia down too (along with oil prices).

The question is how strong the USD will get immediately after the first rate hike-whether in September or December-and what will gold prices be. Some are saying that much of the price is already factored in, and/or gold will go down before sharply reversing. I tend to think gold will indeed go down below $1,000 (markets tend to overshoot) first, before retreating to 1050 area by the end of the year. It's likely that we'll see a lot of buying at the $1,000 level, particularly if other assets and investments are tanking.

Previous interest rate hikes have seen limited USD gains, which could temper some currency pairs. My analysis suggests that gold prices could continue to decline, especially if interest rate hikes keep inflationary pressures at bay.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #26,105
  • Aug 18, 2015 1:16am Aug 18, 2015 1:16am
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} As probably many traders are doing, I've been reading everything concerning Fed actions in the past, and reactions to interest rate increases after long periods of loose monetary policy. The one thing missing from many analysis, is that the current period of low rates combined with several rounds of QE, is a historical precedent. This time is different? It does seems likely the Fed will raise rates in September, even if that puts the USA into a recession next year. One can debate the merits of Fed raising rates in the middle of a seemingly...
argh, u missing China/India... the biggest buyers of Gold in the world

economic slow down in china plus india clamping down on Gold import... Gold dont look so healthy
  • #26,106
  • Aug 18, 2015 1:46am Aug 18, 2015 1:46am
Quoting ohguowei
{quote} argh, u missing China/India... the biggest buyers of Gold in the world economic slow down in china plus india clamping down on Gold import... Gold dont look so healthy
I'm not feeling healthy with long Golds either.
Quoting ClockTrader
@1117 Pretty volatile but patterns are good.. Long again from here..

@ 1118

I'll close these longs for a tiny profit and search for a short op.
Hello World!
  • #26,107
  • Aug 18, 2015 3:23am Aug 18, 2015 3:23am
i dnt feel good with short looks like one scary move ll come.......
  • #26,108
  • Aug 18, 2015 5:41am Aug 18, 2015 5:41am
Quoting ohguowei
{quote} argh, u missing China/India... the biggest buyers of Gold in the world economic slow down in china plus india clamping down on Gold import... Gold dont look so healthy
Indeed. Gold buying down this year over last...and likely to decline further. On the contrarian side, we could see a buying surge when/if gold hits $1,000 level
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #26,109
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:01am Aug 18, 2015 7:01am
Quoting rashidyousuf
i dnt feel good with short looks like one scary move ll come.......
I'll await solid setup of patterns.. don't feel like doing things halfheartedly..

I won't mind if I miss this train in any direction.. Better play safe than sorry!
Hello World!
  • #26,110
  • Aug 18, 2015 7:16am Aug 18, 2015 7:16am
i am out with tinny lose waiting for high voltage......
  • #26,111
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:21pm Aug 18, 2015 4:21pm
Damn... I hit my silver stop loss today! Didnt trade gold today although 1109 was a good area to enter long for scalping...but again its foolish to go against the overall trend..still waiting for 1130 to enter short

US oil new contract will start... Its interesting to see it close above 42 mark, but still it's good to short here, i'll try to catch the candle at inventories report. Huge oversupply in the market plus lower consumer spending.. seems like oil should breach below 40 in short-term.
  • #26,112
  • Aug 18, 2015 9:08pm Aug 18, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I'll await solid setup of patterns.. don't feel like doing things halfheartedly.. I won't mind if I miss this train in any direction.. Better play safe than sorry!
Current Price @ 1117

Short from this range: 1116-1119

SL @ 1125

PS: Trade a proven strategy in a light and safe manner.
Hello World!
  • #26,113
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:29am Aug 19, 2015 1:29am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Current Price @ 1117 Short from this range: 1116-1119 SL @ 1125 PS: Trade a proven strategy in a light and safe manner.
> Short from this range: 1116-1119

Current Price @ 1118

Closed the shorts..
Hello World!
  • #26,114
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:07am Aug 19, 2015 4:07am
1125 and then 1134 are the resistance on the upside both can be good places to try a short, but if that huge spike down last month that reached 1064$ according to my chart was an attempt to draw more sellers to push the price down, can we count it as a failure now, if so the trend can reverse
  • #26,115
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:12am Aug 19, 2015 4:12am
i think this area good for short ....
  • #26,116
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:53am Aug 19, 2015 4:53am
Quoting rashidyousuf
i think this area good for short ....
Your thoughts look good :-)

I'll give it a shot!

@ 1122

SL @ 1130
Hello World!
  • #26,117
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:07am Aug 19, 2015 5:07am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Your thoughts look good :-) I'll give it a shot! @ 1122 SL @ 1130
IF SL gets hit, I would like to try shorts again..
Hello World!
  • #26,118
  • Aug 19, 2015 6:50am Aug 19, 2015 6:50am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} IF SL gets hit, I would like to try shorts again..

we shorted but gold looks too strong
  • #26,119
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:45am Aug 19, 2015 7:45am
Quoting rashidyousuf
{quote} we shorted but gold looks too strong
SL has comfortably survived the first storm.. let's see how it goes..
Hello World!
  • #26,120
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:37am Aug 19, 2015 8:37am
Just careful with shorts. According to my signal which triggered a long on 10 Aug, no signs of bear yet. It also break thru my 1st region now residing in my 2nd region towards the last resistance. Good luck guys.
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