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  • #101
  • Aug 8, 2015 1:14am Aug 8, 2015 1:14am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Chorlton, Thanks for the question. 1. Yes for sure - this isn't the only way I trade - it's just one of the ways I trade. We all need a tool box of trading methods that we apply in different market conditions. For example I also look for channels to trade - love trading these! But really, it's just the same methods I use but turned on their side or on an angle. If you think about if, trading off a rising channel support is just the same as trading off a horizontal level. Price still moves up, retraces, goes up further to important resistance...
Thanks for the reply Pharley....
  • #102
  • Aug 8, 2015 2:28am Aug 8, 2015 2:28am
Quoting roughtrader
How on earth would anyone know if 90% of all traders fail? I don't buy into that, it's a myth! it is simply totally impossible anyone would know that, especially in the forex market which is the largest market in the world, and is traded off exchange where someone could only have the percentages of a single broker. that would be a tiny drop in the ocian and that leaves tousands of brokers they have no access to. simply impossible, don't believe it! it only makes you feel less confident in your trading method, if everyone think that they only have...
Pick any retail forex broker

formula

customer funds beginning any quarter - Customer fund end of quarter = (negative amount)

a) new accounts during the period are not included
b) the result on average will show that the sum of all accounts lost by the amount of the transaction cost (spread and/or commission)

Conclusion,
In reality, over time and for ALL retail traders it's closer to 100 %
  • #103
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:36am Aug 8, 2015 4:36am
always remember:
1. forex is not a trading, other side of world said that this is trading. It is not. the word "trading" is a distraction luring ourself into mind trapping which we feel comfort and secure
2. but forex is not a gambling too, the other side of world said this is gambling. the word gambling is also distraction luring ourself into mind trapping which we will do totally without knowledge
3. release both of two from our mind. do not think about both the two (trading, gambling).
4. band wagon effect, herd jumped into the train, follow, and jump before the herd conscious and rushing to jump off the train.
5. realize that the train always come periodically, then wait for the train.
6. realize that actually we play in the darkpool, what ever we have it is still dark and always dark.
7. always humble
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #104
  • Edited 11:45pm Aug 8, 2015 4:19pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting roughtrader
I think it is close to 50% because on every trade there is one winner and one loser
To whatever extent forex approaches a zero sum game, approx 50% of the volume traded must necessarily win, and at the expense of the other 50%. Hence, in terms of absolute trader numbers, there will always be more losers than winners** -- unless there are a lot of small winners, and a few big losers, i.e. smaller players, including the droves of noobs and hopefuls, somehow have advantages (more capital? more comprehensive information? greater experience and expertise? better emotional discipline?) over their heavyweight opponents. And to whatever extent heavyweights are able to manipulate price movement for their own benefit, the opposite can only be true. Then we must factor in transaction costs, slippage, and any bucket shop fraud or mischief. And also the fact that many trading truths are counter-intuitive, and the psychological requirements to maintain profitability are perversely unnatural (see this).

Putting all of this together, it seems to me that the number of long term retail winners will always be significantly less than 50%. That's not being pessimistic, I'm simply attempting to take an impartial look at what I see as being the most obvious realities.
________________________

[EDIT] **(1) As a trader becomes profitable, his account grows, allowing him to supposedly trade larger volumes. (2) Trades of larger volume must always be offset by a greater number of opposing trades of smaller volume. Putting (1) and (2) together, there should be a small number of profitable high-volume traders, with their orders necessarily being offset by a large number of losing, low-volume traders.
  • #105
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:08pm Aug 8, 2015 5:08pm
comparing retail forex trading & the real forex market is like comparing the Special Olympics with the Olympics. "Retail" forex volume is < 5% of the forex market volume.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail...change_trading (see the 2013 BIS Survey in Reference #1)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #106
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:15pm Aug 8, 2015 5:15pm
Quoting kprsa
Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager's book "Market wizards" answering to the question:"What are the elements of good trading?" The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
true that. Also, remember Warren Buffet's rules for trading:

Rule #1: Never Lose Money.
Rule #2: Never forget Rule #1.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107
  • Aug 8, 2015 6:16pm Aug 8, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting The Fool
comparing retail forex trading & the real forex market is like comparing the Special Olympics with the Olympics.
I was responding to the question "do more than 50% of retailers lose?" If the retailers had their own money pool completely separate from the big players' money, then IMO your "special Olympics" analogy would make sense. But to whatever extent ECN / STP brokers pass retail orders on to the interbank market, retailers can't escape becoming part of that zero sum collective, regardless of its composition. And even the bucket shops do that for their A-list clients, while the B-listers are their known losers, anyway.
  • #108
  • Aug 8, 2015 6:46pm Aug 8, 2015 6:46pm
So, if we take 5% as the given volume of retail in the total volume of the forex market - what percent of that fraction do you think is in the "B-List"?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #109
  • Aug 8, 2015 7:01pm Aug 8, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting The Fool
So, if we take 5% as the given volume of retail in the total volume of the forex market - what percent of that fraction do you think is in the "B-List"?
Did a quick Google and couldn't find any info. However, I have a contact in a MT4 br0kerage, and when I next talk to him, I'll ask this question. Would be quite interesting to find out.
  • #110
  • Aug 8, 2015 7:11pm Aug 8, 2015 7:11pm
I'd guess > 95% of the retail volume gets into the pockets of bucketshop brokers, institutionals and a relative handful of large, profitable independent traders.

But I'm just guessing. Good Luck to All.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #111
  • Aug 9, 2015 2:33am Aug 9, 2015 2:33am
I think that one of the main problem is due to large position size.

To trade successful you need a very large account to have space to breath.

Recently, I discovered the so called "cent account", where the base currency are US cents.
So, intead of USD we have USC.

De facto, 50$ are 5.000 USC
100$ 10.000 USC

I am having much better result with cent account respect to normal account.

Mainly because you can have an appropriate position managament, without depositing 20/50K in your account.


Because people starts with too small account and the money managment does not work.

I mean, the account is so small that people are forced to take much bigger risk because making 2% a month with 1.000$ account.... At the end of the year the gains are so limited.

But even with 10K, if you use sound strategy with 2% monthly at the end of the year the profit is only 2,682.42$.

So, people use too aggressive strategy that will lead to failure



For people who want to learn forex I strongly suggest cent account, they are much more simple to use.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #112
  • Aug 9, 2015 3:22am Aug 9, 2015 3:22am
Quote
But even with 10K, if you use sound strategy with 2% monthly at the end of the year the profit is only 2,682.42$.
So, people use too aggressive strategy that will lead to failure

yes. most people aren't satisfied with 25% a year! Sure trading requires some effort, but where else can you get 25% a year? If you're lucky a high dividend yielding stock might give 10% p/a, but investing in those come with it's own risk.
  • #113
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:13am Aug 10, 2015 4:13am
The key to successful trading is 1) identifying market equilibrium and 2) realizing that a time frame is just a time frame.

Once you learn how to trade, the time frame becomes a matter of how hard do you want to work, and/or how much do you want to diversify.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #114
  • Aug 12, 2015 11:34am Aug 12, 2015 11:34am
Hello guys, i'm dissapointed with myself, i dont know if this is the best place to post this, but its about losing.

Right now I'm losing money, one time i made 400€ from a 200€ account in 2-3 days, and i already have grown an 25€ account into 200€ but in the end i always blow my account expect on those 400€ i gained i withdraw them

I know if blowing my account because I'm risking too much,

the problem is when i trade low lots ( I use a micro account ) i never feel good about the profit, because its too damn LOW , i do account with 100€ what is your best tips for me ?

Btw i would love to see or talk with a "Real Trader" to get some ideas.

Any one can help me ?
  • #115
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:27pm Aug 13, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting lcouto
Hello guys, i'm dissapointed with myself, i dont know if this is the best place to post this, but its about losing. Right now I'm losing money, one time i made 400 from a 200 account in 2-3 days, and i already have grown an 25 account into 200 but in the end i always blow my account expect on those 400 i gained i withdraw them I know if blowing my account because I'm risking too much, the problem is when i trade low lots ( I use a micro account ) i never feel good about the profit, because its too damn LOW , i do account...
Hello Icouto, its an interesting place you are in but ill go at it anyways.

im glad you understand that you are losing because you are risking too much, like you have already seen on this and other threads here, trading especially on the retail end has a lot of odds stacked against you, so the way i see it you only have control over one thing for certain, how much you risk
, i dont know how you pick your trades but you seem to be doing something right, if only you could limit your downside.

So yeah that might expose you to smaller profit, but trading isnt a get rich quick scheme(atleast not for the retail broker) so you have to treat it like a business and the profits will pile up over time.

Simplistic example;

Say for instance you risk only 1% of your account every day, worst case scenario after a month of only losing trades, you would lose 20% of your account, now lets imagine you split that 1% into 5 trades a day at 0.2% per, you would need to lose 100 trades consecutively, over a month! At that point id advise you take the balance off the account and move into real estate or farming...trading isnt for you!!! (yes, we cant all be traders, especially profitable ones)

Now say you were looking to gain 2-3% at an R:R of 1:2 or 3, if you won only half your trades, you would be looking at about 20% ROI, that would be 240% ROI in a year, now consider some trading styles like the ones shown on this thread, that return could be exponential, also, that figure ignores the magic of compounding returns....so basically if you stop trading like you are vacationing in Vegas, and start working at it, in time you will be able to get mind blowing returns, but you have to put in the time to learn, the patience, discipline and wholesome understanding of where in the food chain you lie. Once you make peace with that, understand yourself and get your shit together emotionally, you are bound to enjoy trading, with alot less heartache.

Can you quadruple an account in a week, yes, most traders will tell you they have (atleast on demo)- i actually encourage a 100% x 100 regimen on different size accounts just for the demo phase. just to get the mindset and screen time - but is it sustainable over time? Definately not or we'd all own islands and private jets in the first couple of months of trading. Can you loose all your money in 10 minutes, im guessing you know that answer intimately, so stop with the mindless rush for profit and start trading.
About "real traders", FF is full of great traders with incredible insights and widely different approaches to trading profitably, look around, read, ask and keep learning.
Guard your pips jelously
  • #116
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:40pm Aug 13, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting lcouto
Hello guys, i'm dissapointed with myself, i dont know if this is the best place to post this, but its about losing. Right now I'm losing money, one time i made 400 from a 200 account in 2-3 days, and i already have grown an 25 account into 200 but in the end i always blow my account expect on those 400 i gained i withdraw them I know if blowing my account because I'm risking too much, the problem is when i trade low lots ( I use a micro account ) i never feel good about the profit, because its too damn LOW , i do account with 100 what is your...
cheers up bro,

on my journey I blow lot of account. because I am stubborn man, think this world is easy money, do not learn right, blundering about the system, try this and that without deep fundamental learn about myself and this forex world, always on confuse fear and greed, and lot of things more
some advise if you have income from other job and have an extra money then just use your extra money for learning. learn and master about ourself first then learn about the forex world then learn about the clothes the armor and the weapon we want to use in that world

happy journey bro
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #117
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:52pm Aug 13, 2015 2:52pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} To whatever extent forex approaches a zero sum game, approx 50% of the volume traded must necessarily win, and at the expense of the other 50%. Hence, in terms of absolute trader numbers, there will always be more losers than winners** -- unless there are a lot of small winners, and a few big losers... And also the fact that many trading truths are counter-intuitive, and the psychological requirements to maintain profitability are perversely unnatural (see this)....
Good insights there Hanover, but see guys all this is all good and well, but i have always considered the business for what it is, yes there are statistics about this and other, market makers, conflict of interest here and there, but it is what it is, being able to trade in any scenario the way i see it is great, what happens to the 5 trillion or 250billion that makes up the retail end, is of no real consequence when it comes down to it, if you are a trader you accept to work in the market as is, yes, we try to level the playing field, ecn, analysis, and thats great too, but everywhere in life, 90% lose, more like 98%, fighting or debating the figures is somewhat redundant.
The account and the pips in the end are all that matter, and the edge isnt so much in being a retailer or market maker or institutional, its in understanding the market place, and devising ways to make your cut, the sad truth is said devising is alot easier said than done and many end up losing, thats just how it is.
I prefer to spend my days learning how to manage my account and turn a profit, learn new interesting strategies to my entries more pin point, cut my losers and run my winners. D1, H4, W1, its all just representations of the same two axes, time and price, and where in relation to them you as an individual lie.
So if we understand the market place, and learn to better anticipate the reactions of the players in the market, we can better direct our actions to not be a statistic.
"90% of traders lose money...", "Malaria kills one child every 30 seconds"..."3000 people commit suicide every day", all statistics or half researched truisms that you wake up to in the morning, but you aren't one of them, there are ways to keep it that way. Thats all im saying.

Green pips.
Guard your pips jelously
  • #118
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:11am Aug 14, 2015 3:11am
Thank you a lot, for the tips, I will stop chasing about the dream of becoming rich in month, and starting to look about pips on profit

What i struggle a lot is that i have another job and the hours i'm able to be in front of a computer staring at charts are those dead hours where nothing moves and i keep to enter trade kinda random :x

Quoting TzarPips
{quote} Hello Icouto, its an interesting place you are in but ill go at it anyways. im glad you understand that you are losing because you are risking too much, like you have already seen on this and other threads here, trading especially on the retail end has a lot of odds stacked against you, so the way i see it you only have control over one thing for certain, how much you risk , i dont know how you pick your trades but you seem to be doing something right, if only you could limit your downside. So yeah that might expose you to smaller profit,...
  • #119
  • Aug 15, 2015 6:39am Aug 15, 2015 6:39am
Quoting TzarPips
{quote} , if you won only half your trades, you would be looking at about 20% ROI, that would be 240% ROI in a year.
I am slowly coming to the same conclusion. With some compounding I believe 400% per year is possible with some calculated risk. But discipline must be really really big. I made a trading plan for 6 years that projects 14% monthly growth. Start with 250 USD and every year quadruple the money. After 6 years you have 1 M. Of course I have the same problem about staying on the plan and got greedy...
  • #120
  • Aug 23, 2015 9:40am Aug 23, 2015 9:40am

Topic Starter,

Not 90, but can be either 95% of 99.9% of the all the newcomers to the market.

The main reason, imho, is using various indicators and not following the main one -- price action!


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