Reading many posts on here, I'm beginning to believe that price direction is not predictable. I've seen so many "profitable" systems that seem to have no logic behind them, such as people claiming that they can predict where prices will go by finding the square root of the last few periods; people drawing shapes; using 'magic' formulas and levels. There is no rationality behind this.
I may not know much about markets, but I do know that the only thing moving prices is supply and demand. No formula, number, square root, etc, is going to tell you whether bulls or bears are going to have the upper hand next. There is no link between these methods, and changes in supply/demand.
If people claim that methods such as these are consistently profitable, then that can only imply that price is not predictable. You may as well toss a coin to decide where price will go next...?
I'm not saying that (consistent) profitability comes down to luck, but perhaps the only thing that matters is money management?
What do you think? Is it possible to tell where price is more likely to go next, or should we stop trying to guess and focus more on MM?
I may not know much about markets, but I do know that the only thing moving prices is supply and demand. No formula, number, square root, etc, is going to tell you whether bulls or bears are going to have the upper hand next. There is no link between these methods, and changes in supply/demand.
If people claim that methods such as these are consistently profitable, then that can only imply that price is not predictable. You may as well toss a coin to decide where price will go next...?
I'm not saying that (consistent) profitability comes down to luck, but perhaps the only thing that matters is money management?
What do you think? Is it possible to tell where price is more likely to go next, or should we stop trying to guess and focus more on MM?