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  • #19,861
  • Nov 29, 2014 10:35am Nov 29, 2014 10:35am
The save our gold referendum will be held tomorrow (Sunday). Either way there could be a big reaction to the results in gold and to EURCHF. If at the count it will be a YES vote we could see the end of EURCHF 1.2000 floor.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #19,862
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:20am Nov 29, 2014 11:20am
Quoting Panco
The save our gold referendum will be held tomorrow (Sunday). Either way there could be a big reaction to the results in gold and to EURCHF. If at the count it will be a YES vote we could see the end of EURCHF 1.2000 floor.

I think if its a yes it will be a lot bigger issue
and with a yes the floor will not hold
  • #19,863
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:39am Nov 29, 2014 11:39am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I think if its a yes it will be a lot bigger issue and with a yes the floor will not hold
It's a yes and no. Let's say the results are YES. Ok, the SNB has 5 years to buy the gold, right? Who said they will have to buy the gold in EUR or USD? Why wouldn't the bank buy gold by printing new money (CHF) that will prevent EURCHF from heavy losses? There is more to it. Even after a YES vote the outcome can be rejected by the Cantors who are currently paid nice dividends from the SNB. The SNB warned the Cantors that if the vote passes it will affect their dividends. I made a while research on this, it is not as straightforward as YES and NO.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #19,864
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:41am Nov 29, 2014 11:41am
Quoting Panco
{quote} It's a yes and no. Let's say the results are YES. Ok, the SNB has 5 years to buy the gold, right? Who said they will have to buy the gold in EUR or USD? Why wouldn't the bank buy gold by printing new money (CHF) that will prevent EURCHF from heavy losses? There is more to it. Even after a YES vote the outcome can be rejected by the Cantors who are currently paid nice dividends from the SNB. The SNB warned the Cantors that if the vote passes it will affect their dividends. I made a while research on this, it is not as straightforward as YES...


Yes I agree with you long term - but on Monday what with happen?
  • #19,865
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:45am Nov 29, 2014 11:45am
We wait for the results. If it is a decisive NO and EURCHF spikes higher I would be looking to short once I have a technical entry using my strategy. I can write forever explaining why but I honestly do not believe the SNB will massively intervene in the market.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #19,866
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:51am Nov 29, 2014 11:51am
Im holding longs around current close price - if yes vote which is tomorrow i can hold for asia to open with pump up - if vote is no, i can brace for sudden fall, put in close stop losses right at current price, take small hit, then place auto shorts just below and hope to catch the fall // any ideas on this sort of hedge

gold predictions are mixed - my reading today said some top people see gold doubling in price long term, while others see it falling - i am pretty sure there will be some economic troubles next year and money will move from forex to gold if that happens but short term perhaps falls and ups for next few months - i was doing great in little 5 unit falls and rises this whole last week within channel, the only danager is the breakdown beyond support or the break up past resistance, we probably will see continuation of a fall - but isnt it when times are uncertain for the economy , gold looks attractive as a safe option

mixed bag - hopefully i can hedge my way out - good news is swiss vote is sunday, so ill probably know what to do before markets open

if its a yes im in the money big, if its a no its damage limitation and catch the fall

he says - lol
  • #19,867
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:05pm Nov 29, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting Waitnsee
Im holding longs around current close price - if yes vote which is tomorrow i can hold for asia to open with pump up - if vote is no, i can brace for sudden fall, put in close stop losses right at current price, take small hit, then place auto shorts just below and hope to catch the fall // any ideas on this sort of hedge gold predictions are mixed - my reading today said some top people see gold doubling in price long term, while others see it falling - i am pretty sure there will be some economic troubles next year and money will move from forex...

I think you will start to see oil as less important
this will have two main effects on Gold
1. the Usd will start to fall - because it has been "petro- money" & it will not get that support == this is big == if you think 2008 was big - wait and see if the USD is no longer supported by oil -This will push up gold up as the reserve
2. regardless I think you will see a decoupling of oil and gold and Gold will begin to rise ( and silver more)
  • #19,868
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:09pm Nov 29, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting Waitnsee
Im holding longs around current close price - if yes vote which is tomorrow i can hold for asia to open with pump up - if vote is no, i can brace for sudden fall, put in close stop losses right at current price, take small hit, then place auto shorts just below and hope to catch the fall // any ideas on this sort of hedge gold predictions are mixed - my reading today said some top people see gold doubling in price long term, while others see it falling - i am pretty sure there will be some economic troubles next year and money will move from forex...
I think you got it the other way in the referendum. NO means EURCHF could rise (depends if it was a close call or not) and YES means EURCHF will fall. If you are holding long EURCHF and the vote is YES, expect now to make a bigger loss as the market is likely to gap lower, which will not trigger your stop at the price you set it but at a much, much lower price.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #19,869
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:19pm Nov 29, 2014 12:19pm
no currency trades - ive only gold longs at current close price plus few just above say current to 1172
  • #19,870
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:30pm Nov 29, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting Waitnsee
Im holding longs around current close price - if yes vote which is tomorrow i can hold for asia to open with pump up - if vote is no, i can brace for sudden fall, put in close stop losses right at current price, take small hit, then place auto shorts just below and hope to catch the fall // any ideas on this sort of hedge gold predictions are mixed - my reading today said some top people see gold doubling in price long term, while others see it falling - i am pretty sure there will be some economic troubles next year and money will move from forex...
If the vote results are released before the gold market opens, how do you plan on getting your stop/hedge orders in place before the market opens? If the market gaps lower, you're going to be stuck with those prices & not the Friday closing price.
  • #19,871
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:03pm Nov 29, 2014 5:03pm
hi guyz so my short trade is open do u guyz think that gold will go down tommorow when market is going to open, llike how much the spike can be when the market opens
  • #19,872
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:08pm Nov 29, 2014 5:08pm
Kkkk
  • #19,873
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:25pm Nov 29, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting afroz
hi guyz so my short trade is open do u guyz think that gold will go down tommorow when market is going to open, llike how much the spike can be when the market opens

if you a short you will likely be ok
the reasons I say that
1. look at the charts
2. Volume in NY was just 15% less then a normal day in 1/2 a day
- normally its like 20% of a normally day - there was a lot of panic!!
3. Monday we will see a run on Oil and Gold
4. can you begin to imagine the margin calls over the weekend

Even if the Swiss vote for gold it will all sold off very quick !!
and I think price will drop again

just my two cents
  • #19,874
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:31pm Nov 29, 2014 5:31pm
we can make whats-up group so we can share top news effect or even top markets moves? i am in one gruop already, smiple pass me our whats-up number and i can add you to th group if anyone interested

Quoting TEB63
{quote} if you a short you will likely be ok the reasons I say that 1. look at the charts 2. Volume in NY was just 15% less then a normal day in 1/2 a day - normally its like 20% of a normally day - there was a lot of panic!! 3. Monday we will see a run on Oil and Gold 4. can you begin to imagine the margin calls over the weekend Even if the Swiss vote for gold it will all sold off very quick !! and I think price will drop again just my two cents
soo true and you can see wrong chart or number hiting 2000-1952.50 and down to 1152 then back to normal starting by monday morning
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #19,875
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:37pm Nov 29, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting afroz
hi guyz so my short trade is open do u guyz think that gold will go down tommorow when market is going to open, llike how much the spike can be when the market opens
if your equity or margin can handle it then my advice is to keep it if its in 16ISH lvl but also you should be carfull and its your call
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #19,876
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:38pm Nov 29, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting MarkChew
Hope to make more next week . Keeping my fingers crossed ! {image}
good luck , i wouldn't keep it more longer and/or you can get new target by next Sunday nice wining mate keep it up
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #19,877
  • Nov 29, 2014 5:44pm Nov 29, 2014 5:44pm
tell them . Am sure we are smart. all those with long position must be on demo account because you will be amazed at what way it will fall come Monday morning
  • #19,878
  • Nov 29, 2014 6:41pm Nov 29, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} if you a short you will likely be ok the reasons I say that 1. look at the charts 2. Volume in NY was just 15% less then a normal day in 1/2 a day - normally its like 20% of a normally day - there was a lot of panic!! 3. Monday we will see a run on Oil and Gold 4. can you begin to imagine the margin calls over the weekend Even if the Swiss vote for gold it will all sold off very quick !! and I think price will drop again just my two cents
dont forget aout Jpychf as japan election starting next month and japan has major interest on gold as economy best friend
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #19,879
  • Nov 29, 2014 6:44pm Nov 29, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting rafat habeb
{quote} good luck , i wouldn't keep it more longer and/or you can get new target by next Sunday nice wining mate keep it up
My expectation is same as teb63 that it will drop further . I hope to have a happy Christmas and start the new year well.
  • #19,880
  • Nov 29, 2014 8:05pm Nov 29, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting MarkChew
{quote} My expectation is same as teb63 that it will drop further . I hope to have a happy Christmas and start the new year well.
well happy chrismas for sure to all and happy wining on Sunday ,cheers and will be here by Sunday also again feel free all to add my sharing ideas whatsup group
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
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