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  • #19,421
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:31am Nov 21, 2014 11:31am
  •  Kah
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Patience is the Key to Success! | 150 Posts
Closing the week with the same advice - again and again during the week, I reiterated, better sell the peak outs and remain on the sidelines otherwise.

Think not twice but thousand times before going long in Gold.

We must not do Revenge Trading. If we do so and go against the trend of the market then even GBP 500,000 aren't enough.

Cheers,
KAH
  • #19,422
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:33am Nov 21, 2014 11:33am
So 3 attempts on taking 1200 and all have been failures.......
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #19,423
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:39am Nov 21, 2014 11:39am
Quoting Kah
Closing the week with the same advice - again and again during the week, I reiterated, better sell the peak outs and remain on the sidelines otherwise. Think not twice but thousand times before going long in Gold. We must not do Revenge Trading. If we do so and go against the trend of the market then even GBP 500,000 aren't enough. Cheers, KAH
Thats fair enough advice...but remember, trends exist in all t/fs, not just daily, so its not uncommon to find an opposite intraday trend occurring for several bars on the 30 min chart for example, whilst the underlying trend does indeed still exist...but nevertheless ur point is a safe option all said and done.
  • #19,424
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:50am Nov 21, 2014 11:50am
  •  Kah
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Patience is the Key to Success! | 150 Posts
Quoting Landline
{quote} Thats fair enough advice...but remember, trends exist in all t/fs, not just daily, so its not uncommon to find an opposite intraday trend occurring for several bars on the 30 min chart for example, whilst the underlying trend does indeed still exist...but nevertheless ur point is a safe option all said and done.
Bro - intention is to save the new comers from getting ripped off in this business. It looks like blinking colors on the screen but it's never so simple.

I agree with you but I always prefer going after the overall trend, and any opposite intraday ride adds up to the level of opportunity which I encash by accumulating more positions and doing the MM in accordance to the underlying trend - which in today's date and the days to follow is bearish and will remain bearish until the pairs gets some fundamental support else 1050 is a must, from there I would say it might change the direction.

Goodnight,
KAH
  • #19,425
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:57am Nov 21, 2014 11:57am
Quoting Kah
{quote} Bro - intention is to save the new comers from getting ripped off in this business. It looks like blinking colors on the screen but it's never so simple. I agree with you but I always prefer going after the overall trend, and any opposite intraday ride adds up to the level of opportunity which I encash by accumulating more positions and doing the MM in accordance to the underlying trend - which in today's date and the days to follow is bearish and will remain bearish until the pairs gets some fundamental support else 1050 is a must, from...
Ok...and as I said, that is a safer option
  • #19,426
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:02pm Nov 21, 2014 12:02pm
look at the USD INDEX
at this level Gold should be around 1140!
what happen and what is stopping to go Gold to hell???
  • #19,427
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:15pm Nov 21, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting Arshamv
look at the USD INDEX at this level Gold should be around 1140! what happen and what is stopping to go Gold to hell???
I wonder that too,can somebody explain this please?what is stopping gold to fall
  • #19,428
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:48pm Nov 21, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting henzo920
{quote} I wonder that too,can somebody explain this please?what is stopping gold to fall
Gold is a commodity and is bought or sold with every other currency in the world, not just USD, but there's also exotic spot price crosses available to trade like XAUEUR.
There's always a bit of a discrepancy between the real exchange rate and the tradeable spot price but it tends to even itself out over longer term.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #19,429
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:51pm Nov 21, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting MrketSniper
I am changing my view on this pair from bear to bull for the next 2 weeks. I will buy when there is an opportunity.
Below 1295 was the opportunity to buy, but I miss it.
  • #19,430
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:20pm Nov 21, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting MrketSniper
{quote} Below 1295 was the opportunity to buy, but I miss it.
Hi Mrketsniper,

I would like to see your chart and already requested you to share in the previous post, pls share how you actually look the opprutinity
  • #19,431
  • Nov 21, 2014 9:59pm Nov 21, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting Landline
{quote} Thats fair enough advice...but remember, trends exist in all t/fs, not just daily, so its not uncommon to find an opposite intraday trend occurring for several bars on the 30 min chart for example, whilst the underlying trend does indeed still exist...but nevertheless ur point is a safe option all said and done.
All the time I think of this when I see people following a trend..

Nobody cares how many trends Gold is following, they just look at a TF & get carried away, even trade on the basis of that..
Hello World!
  • #19,432
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:34pm Nov 21, 2014 11:34pm
so gold is at 1202 , i it the right time to short gold ??
  • #19,433
  • Nov 22, 2014 2:15am Nov 22, 2014 2:15am
Keep in mind that yearly pivot is at 1024 an keep in mind gold trapped us before.

When we was waiting for retracement to 1200 level we was ready to make our analysis unvalid. Last Friday evening it bounced right up.

I think we still have some bear business down there.

A break of 1220 will make me reconsider but only then I will look at a breach of our resistance and market sentiment.
  • #19,434
  • Nov 22, 2014 2:16am Nov 22, 2014 2:16am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} All the time I think of this when I see people following a trend.. Nobody cares how many trends Gold is following, they just look at a TF & get carried away, even trade on the basis of that..
Hi CT

Recent posts could be confusing for the less experienced traders regarding what is a trend and what actually constitutes a trend.

Here's how I see it for what its worth.

As I've alluded to, trends really do exist in all t/fs, from the smallest to the largest and granted the higher the t/f then the more strength will be required to break it.

A monthly chart showing 3 bull candles for example will obviously only contain 3 candlesticks and which is obviously comprised of 12 weekly candles, but the recent weekly chart may now contain 3 weekly bear candles in a row, and if we ignored the monthly chart in our analysis, we could quite easily be deceived into believing that we were in a bear trend, but we now know from my simple example that the next higher t/f, in this case the monthly chart would tell us that the bull trend is in fact apparently still in tact.

This extreme explanation using the monthly chart scenario is purely to demonstrate that counter trends must start at some point in all t/fs but can get exhausted within a few candles and revert back to the higher underlying trend.

My method of trading takes the above comments into account when I consider a t/f, it could be the m15 chart for example, which may have entered my pink zone (see previous posts for what thats all about), suggesting to me that a short trade may be imminent. If the M15 stabilises or starts to move down within the pink zone, then that alerts me to a possible trading opprtunity and to focus on the next lowest t/f, which would be the M5 in this case, and again I want to ideally be seeing price stabilising or moving down within the pink zone for 2 or 3 candles, and this next bit is the important part to be aware of, because this for me is saying that this local trend could now have gone from bullish to bearish, at least within the context of the t/fs I'm interested in that is, and satisfies the conditions that I need to take the trade on.

My method doesnt need the so called underlying main trend in order to work, because thats been taken care of already in the two t/fs that I'm analysing from, therefore 50% of the time at a guess it may be perceived by some that its counter-trend when looking at even higher t/fs, depending whether I'm going long or short.

Either way, as traders we must take on risk, its unavoidable but with proper MM in place we can control losing trades.

I hope I've not bored you all too much with the way I go about it, and my consideration of what a trend is etc in relation to the t/f I'm interested in, but I felt it was worth this detail to help less experienced traders make more informed decisions in respect of the t/f that they are analysing before taking a trade on...hope it helps
  • #19,435
  • Nov 22, 2014 3:42am Nov 22, 2014 3:42am
Quoting Arshamv
look at the USD INDEX at this level Gold should be around 1140! what happen and what is stopping to go Gold to hell???
A few months ago I thought the DXY was heading to 88s for sure (wrote about that on here) and gold was going under 1180 and subsequently much lower than that. The first scenario materialised but gold surprisingly did not buckle, well it did but only for a short while before moving back up above 1180 again.

If such incredible dollar strength cannot bring down gold then I think I need to start thinking whats going to happen if and when the dollar starts to reverse. Perhaps this is yet another head fake and gold will trade around 1180 for a while, things are getting very uncertain for sure, could be the squaring of positions ahead of the dec contract expiration thats causing this chop.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #19,436
  • Nov 22, 2014 3:51am Nov 22, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} You are comparing DX on the lower time frames with NQ and silver on the higher time frames... DXY hasn't gone parabolic on the higher time frames, its only just breaking out of a multi year consolidation. It should hit 88s (2010 highs) at least, like I said don't fade breakouts guys, the R/R is just terrible.
DXY under 85 and gold above 1220 when I wrote this, now DXY is above 88 and gold is only $20 lower...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #19,437
  • Nov 22, 2014 5:06am Nov 22, 2014 5:06am
Quoting pips777
hav 7 of these @1202.777 , TP1 27 pippies from ent. , SL manual , TP2 dont know yet = http://screencast.com/t/tRyL9iWy1 might hav 2 carryOver wkEnd = No big Deal
Seeing how strong rallies in this pair can be I wouldn't recommend manual SL. just a toilet visit may lead to huge drawdown.
  • #19,438
  • Nov 22, 2014 7:35am Nov 22, 2014 7:35am
Quoting Landline
{quote} Hi CT Recent posts could be confusing for the less experienced traders regarding what is a trend and what actually constitutes a trend. Here's how I see it for what its worth. As I've alluded to, trends really do exist in all t/fs, from the smallest to the largest and granted the higher the t/f then the more strength will be required to break it. A monthly chart showing 3 bull candles for example will obviously only contain 3 candlesticks and which is obviously comprised of 12 weekly candles, but the recent weekly chart may now contain 3...
i really hope your charts/trading method (which you wish to share to everyone looking to buy in on the idea) is not filled with so much blabber. I mean you "clearly" know what you are talking about. What is your pink zone?
For the new people or anyone it concerns to - these people are generally looking to sell something. Most of the trading method related posts are very accurate/precise on the things they are looking at and there is not much room (much room is exaggerating it, there is no room) for deviation.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #19,439
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:36am Nov 22, 2014 8:36am
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Ro IMRAN Ro
  • #19,440
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:38am Nov 22, 2014 8:38am
I agree with you mate. I honestly find it hard to digest why would a person follow H1 trend & completely ignore whats happening on M30 or H4 or higher TFs.

In order to justify my logic that I wanna go long, I can pick any TF, no matter what the trend has been, there would always be a TF which can be used to justify any direction, gross for me....

Using / analyzing multiple TFs combined with other indi.. + techie analysis does make sense to me though. If one was looking at monthly charts, one should keep in mind about seasons. I know Golden seasons didn't work at all this year, rather inversion took place, but, there is a lot of hush-hush stuff which I cannot share here. People should have their own proprietary methods to deal with easy & tough waves occurring on monthly chart.

With all that said, a trader's success rate would be low if one was following only single TF, IMHO.

Quoting Landline
{quote} Hi CT Recent posts could be confusing for the less experienced traders regarding what is a trend and what actually constitutes a trend. Here's how I see it for what its worth. As I've alluded to, trends really do exist in all t/fs, from the smallest to the largest and granted the higher the t/f then the more strength will be required to break it. A monthly chart showing 3 bull candles for example will obviously only contain 3 candlesticks and which is obviously comprised of 12 weekly candles, but the recent weekly chart may now contain 3...
Hello World!
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