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Only Gold!

  • #18,881
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:12am Nov 8, 2014 2:12am
Weekly :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDrWeekly_Nov8.png Size: 57 KB


No doubt that we had a Nice Bullish Pin Bar on the weekly, which might lead to some green days next week. However the way up is full of obstacles (indicated by green dash horizontal lines on the chart).

Daily :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDrDaily_Nov8.png Size: 52 KB


We also have a nice Bullish Engulfing candle on the daily.

Watch out for fake/real break outs next week.

My plan for next week will be to Buy Pull Backs, and Confirmed break outs on positive testing.
No guts, no glory
  • #18,882
  • Edited 3:13am Nov 8, 2014 2:48am | Edited 3:13am
IMO Gold needs to break 1185 for upside, but I don't think it will not break 1185. This could touch 1185 and then fall to 1125.
I will not buy until it breaks 1185 and confirmation on H4 for bullish trend
Good luck all and have a wonderful weekend all. Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD.jpg Size: 98 KB
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #18,883
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:51am Nov 8, 2014 2:51am
Quoting abokwaik
Weekly : {image} No doubt that we had a Nice Bullish Pin Bar on the weekly, which might lead to some green days next week. However the way up is full of obstacles (indicated by green dash horizontal lines on the chart). Daily : {image} We also have a nice Bullish Engulfing candle on the daily. Watch out for fake/real break outs next week. My plan for next week will be to Buy Pull Backs, and Confirmed break outs on positive testing.
The D1 TF now has a doji morning star which is a powerful pattern if confirmed... have a great weekend all...!!!
  • #18,884
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:54am Nov 8, 2014 2:54am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} "Dance like a Butter-fly sting like a Bee", Rope-a-Dope. Hi abokwaik, you got me thinking about "surfing against the tide" and how I could approach this without getting slaughtered (as usual). One idea popped into my head. Ok, so I tried this today and I call the method "Rope-a-Dope". This is what I did; traded EU and UJ counter-trend. Watched PA punching up (UJ) and down (EU) with trend. Waited until it started to look a bit weak and then landed my first counter-punch trade. I broke my usual Lot size into multi-parts - one punch/part per...
I just saw this. However, I am sure you know What applies to Gold (Commodity) doesn't necessary applies to (co-related currencies: EURO and JPY).
For Euro and JPY I think they will weaken further and the down trend will not reverses easily as they have opposite QE policies with USD, so trading these currency will be just for counter-trend scalping. But I noticed that your step size between orders is very small (1 pip apart) unless you're trading huge lot size of course.

For USD/JPY in specific we have an un-closed 20+ pips gap holding from previous week @ 112.35, which could be a nice target for shorts from 115 levels on the long term.

The advantage of trading Gold is the big daily range, fast movement and retracements. And its a commodity, a limited resource, no central bank intervention ... etc. You will always have demand, Bulls are waiting for the right moment to buy it as cheap as possible.
No guts, no glory
  • #18,885
  • Edited 3:33am Nov 8, 2014 3:01am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I just saw this. However, I am sure you know What applies to Gold (Commodity) doesn't necessary applies to (co-related currencies: EURO and JPY).... are waiting for the right moment to buy it as cheap as possible.
Good point abokwaik - TBH I didn't think of this when I was constructing the method - you are absolutely right! Yes, these were small positions as I was too chicken to fool around with bigger positions.
  • #18,886
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:55am Nov 8, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Jamil7354
{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
your 1571 area for your harmonics lines up nicely with my bounce area , nice to see a different method that comes to the same conclusion
  • #18,887
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:57am Nov 8, 2014 3:57am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I just saw this. However, I am sure you know What applies to Gold (Commodity) doesn't necessary applies to (co-related currencies: EURO and JPY). For Euro and JPY I think they will weaken further and the down trend will not reverses easily as they have opposite QE policies with USD, so trading these currency will be just for counter-trend scalping. But I noticed that your step size between orders is very small (1 pip apart) unless you're trading huge lot size of course. For USD/JPY in specific we have an un-closed 20+ pips gap holding from...

Gold weakening IMO is more to do with dollar / dollar index strength, the index is at a pivotal area on the weekly chart with failed attempts to push higher, if it fails gold will take full advantage of it.....

Prop the dollar up, which really there is no reason as the US is a mess for it to be strengthening like it is, this pushes gold down allowing china to buy cheap
  • #18,888
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:18am Nov 8, 2014 4:18am
Quoting iaveight
{quote} Gold weakening IMO is more to do with dollar / dollar index strength, the index is at a pivotal area on the weekly chart with failed attempts to push higher, if it fails gold will take full advantage of it..... Prop the dollar up, which really there is no reason as the US is a mess for it to be strengthening like it is, this pushes gold down allowing china to buy cheap

Totally agreed and thanks for the info.

Currently the week had ended with doji with slight pull down, as the long tail is seen, most probably the gold will be bullish. I am just wondering if it is a fake breakout. =)
  • #18,889
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:50am Nov 8, 2014 4:50am
Quoting daddybom
{quote} Totally agreed and thanks for the info. Currently the week had ended with doji with slight pull down, as the long tail is seen, most probably the gold will be bullish. I am just wondering if it is a fake breakout. =)
I don't think its a bullish fake because Daily and Weekly Volume supports it, which means smart money is interested. Take a Look at the Daily and Weekly charts I attached few posts earlier.
No guts, no glory
  • #18,890
  • Edited 5:12am Nov 8, 2014 4:58am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} hollowhead!!! What the %#@& happened - last time (like yesterday?) I saw you were up like 50% or something like that?! That's horrible to see mate but just shake it off and get back on track.
I guess I lived up to my name .
Yesterday was a bit of a nightmare with a series of mistakes and bad choices. I saw that price had spiked down into a weekly demand zone, it was then that the TE will have been showing that the account was doing v well, and I thought about closing off weaker legs... but I didn't.

Stupidly I added a couple more shorts (with bigger than normal lot sizes), but somehow forgot to put a stop on (I don't know what happened). I went into a meeting at work and when I came out, 3 trades were in significant loss and the other positions were starting to get closed out at BE. So, I was forced to close out everything to come out with a decent overall profit.

One of the hardest things about stacking a millipede is when it revereses hard against you you watch your balance decrease massively (when you've screwed up and got complacent as well the market really punishes you). This is just as emotionally painful as taking a big loss, but I have to hold to the truism that trades are meaningless until they are closed.

So, lessons learned are;

1. Double check you have stops on (can't believe I made such a stupid mistake
2. Don't increase lot size based on open positions (it makes the balance grow well to start, but the risk is too much)
3. Close out some legs at weekly demand, when you should have

But, the account is still up, and I can start again.

Have a great weekend.

Steve
EDIT: It was a daily demand zone, not weekly
  • #18,891
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:20am Nov 8, 2014 5:20am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I guess I lived up to my name . Yesterday was a bit of a nightmare with a series of mistakes and bad choices. I saw that price had spiked down into a weekly demand zone, it was then that the TE will have been showing that the account was doing v well, and I thought about closing off weaker legs... but I didn't. Stupidly I added a couple more shorts (with bigger than normal lot sizes), but somehow forgot to put a stop on (I don't know what happened). I went into a meeting at work and when I came out, 3 trades were in significant loss...
Hard Luck hollowhead.

As long as we learn from our mistakes we are on the right track.
No guts, no glory
  • #18,892
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:30am Nov 8, 2014 5:30am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I don't think its a bullish fake because Daily and Weekly Volume supports it, which means smart money is interested. Take a Look at the Daily and Weekly charts I attached few posts earlier.
Great. thanks for the enlightenment on the daily. Then it will means that more bull to come for it.
Look like I had exited too early. =)

Will that means USD / DOW will suffer while gold is up?
  • #18,893
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:36am Nov 8, 2014 5:36am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I guess I lived up to my name . Yesterday was a bit of a nightmare with a series of mistakes and bad choices. I saw that price had spiked down into a weekly demand zone, it was then that the TE will have been showing that the account was doing v well, and I thought about closing off weaker legs... but I didn't. Stupidly I added a couple more shorts (with bigger than normal lot sizes), but somehow forgot to put a stop on (I don't know what happened). I went into a meeting at work and when I came out, 3 trades were in significant loss...

Is it me Steve you are referring too, if so who is that LOL, actually monthly cp pattern of demand with the doji nice push away breaking all time highs, there was bound to be a reation here with weekly and monthly fib confluences, IMO guys that are using the 1 hour 4 hour charts at this point for trendlines ect are not valid when you have high time frame areas at play at this level....
  • #18,894
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:36am Nov 8, 2014 5:36am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} Hard Luck hollowhead. As long as we learn from our mistakes we are on the right track.
Thanks. I came out with a decent profit, so I won't complain.
  • #18,895
  • Nov 8, 2014 6:23am Nov 8, 2014 6:23am
Hi all,

Yesterday was a good day for the bulls....but the question now on everyones lips of course is will it continue.

Who can be sure, a decent weekly pin bar is a strong signal in itself usually, but as we all know, price rarely goes in a straight line for long.

I'm thinking broadly (putting aside my technical hat for a moment) that a retrace is likely circa 1145 ish, then some consolidation before a proper upward thrust later this week, which could become the catalyst for a a confirmed trend change.

At this moment though, whilst the pb looks attractive, it has still not effectively changed trend direction, and for me that wont be the case until 1215 ish at which point the weekly trend line will be broken, perhaps in a week or twos time.

Nevertheless, my basic plan this week based on my broad thinking, will be entering long on a pull back and appropriate signals somewhere around the 1145 I anticipate as mentioned, just in case we are indeed entering a proper bull phase
  • #18,896
  • Nov 8, 2014 6:45am Nov 8, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Landline
Hi all, Yesterday was a good day for the bulls....but the question now on everyones lips of course is will it continue. Who can be sure, a decent weekly pin bar is a strong signal in itself usually, but as we all know, price rarely goes in a straight line for long. I'm thinking broadly (putting aside my technical hat for a moment) that a retrace is likely circa 1145 ish, then some consolidation before a proper upward thrust later this week, which could become the catalyst for a a confirmed trend change. At this moment though, whilst the pb looks...
I agree
No guts, no glory
  • #18,897
  • Nov 8, 2014 7:20am Nov 8, 2014 7:20am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I agree
Yeah I read your recent post....interesting, and it seems we have a similar view, albeit using different means.....I guess that proves there is no single method superior to another necessarily, especially if different approaches arrive at the same common sense conclusion.
  • #18,898
  • Nov 8, 2014 7:25am Nov 8, 2014 7:25am
Quoting iaveight
{quote} Is it me Steve you are referring too, if so who is that LOL, actually monthly cp pattern of demand with the doji nice push away breaking all time highs, there was bound to be a reation here with weekly and monthly fib confluences, IMO guys that are using the 1 hour 4 hour charts at this point for trendlines ect are not valid when you have high time frame areas at play at this level....
I'm confused. Why would you think I'm referring to you?
  • #18,899
  • Nov 8, 2014 9:54am Nov 8, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Jonh
{quote} You shouldn't even try to trade on emotions ever. But not many traders could control themselfs good enough to trade with such high margin. Its very easy if everything goes your way, but if not it can be pretty harsh, because you only need 5 loses in the row to wipe your account.
Well it all depends on the way you trade, you can actually afford 5 losses with the same margin and you still be okay! Like I said depends on the trader
  • #18,900
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:37pm Nov 8, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} There are 3 major reasons which I talked about before this shoot took place. I was telling this to a good trader who had like 10-20 lots or a lot more of shorts in DARK GREEN, I don't think anyone has shared so much greenery here before (in this thread). Att.. pics say it all. {image} {image}
Thanks for your feedback CT, all you've been saying here finally came out.
It was a busy day for me on friday.

The UDSX did fall. NFP's positive 214k was beyond the expected 231k and this may have triggered profit taking by the big boys.
Maybe the market was just getting tired of USD's bulls and needed a "coffee break"

The issue now, I think, is how high this movement will go. This is a very delicate matter as I believe there might be people reading this who are holding shorts.

The daily chart shows some resistance at 1183-1190, 2/8 retracement from 2014/07/10's high but RSI has just left OS condition and the engulfing candle deserves our respect. Next strong resistance level is at 1207-1220 (3/8) but we'll have to wait and see what USDX is up to.

My weekend is being windy and rainy, I hope yours is better
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