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  • #18,481
  • Nov 1, 2014 10:21am Nov 1, 2014 10:21am
Gold's long term uptrend will continue to new HIGH
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  • #18,482
  • Edited 12:02pm Nov 1, 2014 11:22am | Edited 12:02pm
Johnnyla....Gold has already broken and closed below $1180....
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #18,483
  • Nov 1, 2014 12:05pm Nov 1, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting AmiFX
Gold's long term uptrend will continue to new HIGH {image}
The fundamentals are not supporting this.

Also I think you will find it closed below that long term uptrend line..

It happened to Oil and look what price action followed...Now it's Gold turn imo.
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #18,484
  • Nov 1, 2014 12:09pm Nov 1, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting chaudh21
Skyhok, CT, ddinov, kuroro001 and karpa, Any takes on what will happen Monday morning when Asia wakes up? A drop from 1240+ to 1169 over the past few weeks is making me wonder if the final wave for gold to bottom is next week or whether another bounce back up to 12060+ and later a sub-1000 dive is needed before a bottom establishes. Or have we already seen a bottom? Many gold-bugs suggest it may go down further as the US economy is showing better numbers. Can you guys share some thoughts? Thanks!
Well job reports are gonna come out next week... im sure we can see some consolidation going on before any movement before friday. If there is going to be a bull market they will be pretty frightened about the broken support levels & the upcoming job reports. Thats my view on this!
  • #18,485
  • Nov 1, 2014 12:42pm Nov 1, 2014 12:42pm
100 MONTH MA = 1178.75.......

http://s13.postimg.org/89fm776sn/1d3...b8sb1r0uoe.png
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #18,486
  • Nov 1, 2014 12:57pm Nov 1, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting Basement
100 MONTH MA = 1178.75....... http://s13.postimg.org/89fm776sn/1d3...b8sb1r0uoe.png
you havent drawn the line properly..the Target one. it doesnt originate from right spot mate.

even if does fall to 1080...it would take much time with higher high lower lows..not in a week. so it has to test at least 1200ish again.
always draw trendlines
  • #18,487
  • Nov 1, 2014 1:34pm Nov 1, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting tk5
{quote} you havent drawn the line properly..the Target one. it doesnt originate from right spot mate. even if does fall to 1080...it would take much time with higher high lower lows..not in a week. so it has to test at least 1200ish again.
Your right, i didn't draw the lines at all, it's actually done automatically by ProRealTime...

I think 1080 will be reached before the year end for sure.

Todays news of the China Manufacturing Falling to a Five-Month low doesn't bode well for Commodities on Monday, how this will affect Gold i am not so sure...
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #18,488
  • Edited 2:17pm Nov 1, 2014 1:51pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting Basement
{quote} Your right, i didn't draw the lines at all, it's actually done automatically by ProRealTime... I think 1080 will be reached before the year end for sure. Todays news of the China Manufacturing Falling to a Five-Month low doesn't bode well for Commodities on Monday, how this will affect Gold i am not so sure...
problem with Gold analyzers they disregard the fact it's not a potato it's gold..it has value. it cant be that cheap at this time of life...

XAU drawdown was inspired by EURUSD going down to its bottom...look at EURUSD and XAU charts..they are very similar in that USD was increasing value during this time.
always draw trendlines
  • #18,489
  • Nov 1, 2014 1:57pm Nov 1, 2014 1:57pm
Fundamentals and technicals are pushing price down on a mediun to long term frames.....i guess the only fundamental factor that could possibly drive the price up would be a yes vote to the swiss referendum on 11/30 (or maybe previous to the vote if polls suggest a yes vote)...but even in that case it should be a very good opportunity for people who missed the short to enter, since a yes will not be implemented. Technically, we are so far to a reversal....and big boys seems not to want it up anyway...
  • #18,490
  • Nov 1, 2014 2:22pm Nov 1, 2014 2:22pm
Tuesday's US Trade Balance may be negative hence pushing XAU..
always draw trendlines
  • #18,491
  • Nov 1, 2014 5:53pm Nov 1, 2014 5:53pm
SHORT GOLD LONG TERM!!!!!

As long as we remain below $1,192 then any move to the upside should be used as an opportunity to short.

This could potentially be a MAJOR TREND, and one that doesn't come round often.

one thing i had to be aware of was that this is primarily a USD based move, so just not to have too much exposure to the USD (e.g. Long USDJPY, long NASDAQ, short Gold etc. it's a lot of USD based risk)
  • #18,492
  • Nov 1, 2014 10:20pm Nov 1, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting chaudh21
Skyhok, CT, ddinov, kuroro001 and karpa, Any takes on what will happen Monday morning when Asia wakes up? A drop from 1240+ to 1169 over the past few weeks is making me wonder if the final wave for gold to bottom is next week or whether another bounce back up to 12060+ and later a sub-1000 dive is needed before a bottom establishes. Or have we already seen a bottom? Many gold-bugs suggest it may go down further as the US economy is showing better numbers. Can you guys share some thoughts? Thanks!
Gold is at a very strong support zone and at a weekly/daily/H4 oversold level so technically it should retrace.
Analysts say that if $1160 breaks, panic selling could happen and further downward action to level $1050.
Currently I'm holding a couple of longs at 1200ish so I'll just be prepared to short again, adjusting pending sells.
I don't like bears very much and I hate to sell something I don't have but that's how the game is played, so be it
Cheers
  • #18,493
  • Nov 1, 2014 11:17pm Nov 1, 2014 11:17pm
Really it is not a technical or fundamental case about gold these days!
we are in the middle of an economic world war and the politicants guide the prices!
look at the Usd/Rub ,oil and gold charts carefully!
target is Russia and then Iran, big boys executed such a senario on mid of 80's and hit the Soviet Union's economy strongly,
see it, two days ago Russia hiked the interest rate for supporting Ruble but immediately BoJ which is a branch of Fed acted contra of it, and only few hours Ruble could resistance!
oil is down so Russia and Iran out come is down,
Russia and Iran hold their money reserve with gold, so gold should be down!
be carefull my friends,the game is in hands of politicans not our charts and Fibos!
have a good tradessss
  • #18,494
  • Edited 12:31am Nov 2, 2014 12:15am | Edited 12:31am
Analyzing the recent 5-wave move down (within a corrective ABCDE... pattern in the higher cycle). There are some interesting occurrences happening...

1. wave-5 is currently near 61.8 of wave-1. This is likely to change...?
2. wave-1 is only marginally smaller than wave-3 (less than 38.2 diff): suggests a wave-5 extension?
3. wave-5 has a greater angle of decent than wave-3! Usually, we would expect this to be the other way around?
4. wave-4 retraced and slightly overlapped wave-1: not very common
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  • #18,495
  • Nov 2, 2014 3:12am Nov 2, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Arshamv
Really it is not a technical or fundamental case about gold these days! we are in the middle of an economic world war and the politicants guide the prices! look at the Usd/Rub ,oil and gold charts carefully! target is Russia and then Iran, big boys executed such a senario on mid of 80's and hit the Soviet Union's economy strongly, see it, two days ago Russia hiked the interest rate for supporting Ruble but immediately BoJ which is a branch of Fed acted contra of it, and only few hours Ruble could resistance! oil is down so Russia and Iran out come...
Interesting. I would like to PM with you if possible.
Trade at your own risk. Don't follow one's opinion.
  • #18,496
  • Nov 2, 2014 5:05am Nov 2, 2014 5:05am
Quoting griffinssoul
Analyzing the recent 5-wave move down (within a corrective ABCDE... pattern in the higher cycle). There are some interesting occurrences happening... 1. wave-5 is currently near 61.8 of wave-1. This is likely to change...? 2. wave-1 is only marginally smaller than wave-3 (less than 38.2 diff): suggests a wave-5 extension? 3. wave-5 has a greater angle of decent than wave-3! Usually, we would expect this to be the other way around? 4. wave-4 retraced and slightly overlapped wave-1: not very common {image}
Thanks for your analysis.

Be interested to see your forecast for next weeks price action taking into consideration the occurrences currently happening.
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #18,497
  • Nov 2, 2014 5:36am Nov 2, 2014 5:36am
Quoting Basement
{quote} Thanks for your analysis. Be interested to see your forecast for next weeks price action taking into consideration the occurrences currently happening.
Hi Basement, thank you for the query, I was just counting the waves on the lower cycle. This is all quiet unusual and I would exercise cation. My biggest concern is the angle of decent of wave-5 : this should not be if we are to change trend (I'm trying no to laugh, please excuse me). Looking at Ichimoku analysis I would say that a correction is due before a further decent with corrected angle... before any thought of a bullish nature. Other traders have highlighted the importance of S&R levels - problem here is these often become places where PA changes polarity (fake or otherwise) in addition to providing S&R. So, again we need to exercise cation. I'll get back to you with probabilities...
  • #18,498
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 2, 2014 6:19am | Edited 6:45am
Could someone please cross check count and estimates, thank you. I would value your opinion of wave-1 on the lower cycle as this looks rather complicated. I'm not worried about Wave-4 overlapping the bottom of Wave-1 as this can happen in highly leveraged markets (its not nice to see perhaps). All targets are estimates (crudely rounded)...

Wave-1 price length = 141.41
Wave-3 price length = 152.03
Implies Wave-3 > Wave-1 [ Wave-3 cannot be the shortest wave (price length) implies Wave-5 could be extension ]

Wave-5 = 61.8 of Wave-1 = 96.1 implies target 1160
Wave-5 = Wave-1 implies target 1105
Wave-5= 161.8 of Wave-1 implies target 1025

EDT: stand by please... having tech issues LOL, Ok, I realize what the issue is... back to the problem of pips and points etc...ok, all sorted and it was what I had originally... was second guessing myself... please cross check
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  • #18,499
  • Edited 6:54am Nov 2, 2014 6:33am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting griffinssoul
Could someone please cross check count and estimates, thank you. I would value your opinion of wave-1 on the lower cycle as this looks rather complicated. I'm not worried about Wave-4 overlapping the bottom of Wave-1 as this can happen in highly leveraged markets (its not nice to see perhaps). All targets are estimates (crudely rounded)... Wave-1 price length = 1414 Wave-3 price length = 1520 Implies Wave-3 > Wave-1 [ Wave-3 cannot be the shortest wave (price length) implies Wave-5 could be extension ] Wave-5 = 61.8 of Wave-1 = 961 implies target...
Also with reference to Skyhoks post #18309: ...while price wise 50% retracement of all time high is around 970.045. Expecting wave A of correction to drop slightly below that

I still can't load up data before 2011 but I found this website with up to 10 years of historical data. (Skyhok's prior link with much, much older data is in log scale and unfortunately not very easy to read the prices. Sorry Skyhok.)

Anyway, I believe EW is most effective when teamed up with S&R zones. The next S&R zone is round about the 970 area - note the multiple peaks late 2007-2009.
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  • #18,500
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:49am Nov 2, 2014 6:49am
Quoting mact4
{quote} Also with reference to Skyhoks post #18309: ...while price wise 50% retracement of all time high is around 970.045. Expecting wave A of correction to drop slightly below that I still can't load up data before 2011 but I found this website with up to 10 years of historical data. (Skyhok's prior link with much, much older data is in log scale and unfortunately not very easy to read the prices. Sorry Skyhok.) Anyway, I believe EW is most effective when teamed up with S&R zones. The next S&R zone is round about{image} the 970 area - not the...
Mact4! Congrats on your analysis! Full credit to you and the other EW'ers. Yes, of course S&R is important as things happen there but they can change their nature as we saw...

My crude estimate based on a Wave-5 extension is: Wave-5= 161.8 of Wave-1 implies target 1025
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