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  • #18,281
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:50am Oct 30, 2014 1:50am
on fad days no tech will work. its the economy stupid.
  • #18,282
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:54am Oct 30, 2014 1:54am
Quoting ClockTrader
I hate my analysis sometimes, it can be f...... too good numerous times in a row. and heck, I try to trade what if I am wrong? lolz By 2020, I'm gonna start trusting myself blindly IF it continues like that. I think I should trust my analysis more. Edit: Eng. Grammar error {image}
I think u r excellent..... I m new at this ct.... can u tell me which charting software do u use?
  • #18,283
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:54am Oct 30, 2014 1:54am
  •  Kah
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Patience is the Key to Success! | 150 Posts
Quoting goldfinger
on fad days no tech will work. its the economy stupid.
Well you can't have bad words for the economy or any specific country or organization. That's highly unethical. Market is bound to follow fundamental aspects while keeping the technical aside for a while.

It is always in the hands of the person holding the keypad that how he interprets and comprehend the fundamentals on such days. Take control of the market, start learning the risk aversive strategies and make profits from there onwards.

Cheers,
KAH
  • #18,284
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:58am Oct 30, 2014 1:58am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Thank you for your interest. Following chart on a longer TF showing an extended wave (3) down may explain your query on the triple bottoms. But of course this is only a probable view or alternate wave count. Do welcome your suggestion and/or alternate count. {image}
Hi Skyhok, please have a look at this... I'm limited to 1MN TF over a large period/cycle so if you can compress this to say 3/6MN you may get [my] wave 4 or 2 as a proper correction (5-3-5). This is, of course, on a larger TF than your analysis. If your analysis is correct then [your] wave 5 will break the lows earlier than anticipated and that worries me - I was expecting an impulse to 1300's after either a 38.2 or 61.8 correction on the 1D [I'll update this below] - unless its truncated but this is rare [I think?]. Please let me know what you come up with.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 55 KB
  • #18,285
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:09am Oct 30, 2014 2:09am
This is an update of my previous chart... it comes at a pivotal moment I believe for AU.

My analysis, which seems in alignment with many here [essentially confirmed via alternative methods] could be in danger of submitting to EWT as shown by Skyhok [and all other method predicting a fall from here] - essentially his wave 5 which could extend 61.8% of wave 3 or perhaps beyond [not ruling out an extension etc]?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #18,286
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:11am Oct 30, 2014 2:11am
I would sell good pullback.
  • #18,287
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:39am Oct 30, 2014 2:39am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Thank you for your interest. Following chart on a longer TF showing an extended wave (3) down may explain your query on the triple bottoms. But of course this is only a probable view or alternate wave count. Do welcome your suggestion and/or alternate count. {image}
Hey, this is great. My chart history can only goes as far back as April 2011.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 44 KB
Saw the triangle formation and an ABCDE correction on weekly; saw a correction down (wave 2 on my chart) was due. It was the future forecast after completion of Wave E that bothered me. As I understood it, after a triangular correction, price would carry on down - logically that made no sense. Very hard to see how gold would drop to 5-600, especially given the triple bottom. Your analysis makes so much more sense. Thank you.
  • #18,288
  • Oct 30, 2014 3:13am Oct 30, 2014 3:13am
Quoting mact4
{quote} Hey, this is great. My chart history can only goes as far back as April 2011. {image}Saw the triangle formation and an ABCDE correction on weekly; saw a correction down (wave 2 on my chart) was due. It was the future forecast after completion of Wave E that bothered me. As I understood it, after a triangular correction, price would carry on down - logically that made no sense. Very hard to see how gold would drop to 5-600, especially given the triple bottom. Your analysis makes so much more sense. Thank you.
Hi mact4, thanks so much for your analysis. That's looking great! The reason behind this is because we are in a correction, I believe, on the larger TF [fractal dimension / EW Cycle above your TF]. This makes much more sense than being in an impulse wave which was a worry to me. You have nailed The ABCD... correction [which is not the same as Skyhok's as his wave 3 ends at your B] in my opinion on your chart! Well done!
  • #18,289
  • Oct 30, 2014 3:59am Oct 30, 2014 3:59am
My updated view (Long Term) in light of recent US fundamentals:

Monthly Chart:

  1. Fibo 62.8 sets at 1156 which was protected for over a year and a half on three failed tries to touch.
  2. If 1156 failed to provide support and a large up swing it might drop to Fibo 75 at 990.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDrMonthly_Oct_14.png Size: 58 KB
No guts, no glory
  • #18,290
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:11am Oct 30, 2014 4:11am
Quoting abokwaik
My updated view (Long Term) in light of recent US fundamentals: Monthly Chart: Fibo 62.8 sets at 1156 which was protected for over a year and a half on three failed tries to touch. If 1156 failed to provide support and a large up swing it might drop to Fibo 75 at 990. {image}
Analysis looking great abokwaik but how are you holding up mate! Hopefully things will turn around in your favour.
  • #18,291
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:22am Oct 30, 2014 4:22am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Analysis looking great abokwaik but how are you holding up mate! Hopefully things will turn around in your favour.
I am still alive. In fact I had an unresolved issue with my broker yesterday which led to stop out on all positions, they've started an investigation and I am on hold now (for this account) until issue is resolved.

PS: Thanks for asking griffinssoul
No guts, no glory
  • #18,292
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:27am Oct 30, 2014 4:27am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I am still alive. In fact I had an unresolved issue with my broker yesterday which led to stop out on all positions, they've started an investigation and I am on hold now (for this account) until issue is resolved.
you must have a nerve of steel mate. hope you can settle the issue with your broker soon. GL.
  • #18,293
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:37am Oct 30, 2014 4:37am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I am still alive. In fact I had an unresolved issue with my broker yesterday which led to stop out on all positions, they've started an investigation and I am on hold now (for this account) until issue is resolved. PS: Thanks for asking griffinssoul
Disappointed to read that but hopefully things will be clarified and you'll get back on track.
  • #18,294
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:40am Oct 30, 2014 4:40am
Who said fundamental news isn't important?. Yesterday's FOMC meeting affected all markets. The dollar is re-energised. Gold is heading for sub $1200. The FOMC certainly has bite!
  • #18,295
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:56am Oct 30, 2014 4:56am
Quoting jops
{quote} you must have a nerve of steel mate. hope you can settle the issue with your broker soon. GL.
Thanks jops. But don't worry its a relatively small account, however it surely affected my view on the broker reliability unless they settled it in a fair manner.
No guts, no glory
  • #18,296
  • Oct 30, 2014 5:46am Oct 30, 2014 5:46am
Quoting musti
{quote} I think u r excellent..... I m new at this ct.... can u tell me which charting software do u use?
Free Indi 'Better Volume' on Mt4
Hello World!
  • #18,297
  • Oct 30, 2014 5:47am Oct 30, 2014 5:47am
@ 1206

Long from here with SL @ 1295

IF there is a huge bottom out during US session ahead, I'll give longs another shot.

I got nothing right now but to try longs until 1290.


Below that, I'm gonna give a pause.

Trade Safe!

PS: Advise not to lose more than 1-2% a day in small accounts.
Hello World!
  • #18,298
  • Oct 30, 2014 6:11am Oct 30, 2014 6:11am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Hi Skyhok, please have a look at this... I'm limited to 1MN TF over a large period/cycle so if you can compress this to say 3/6MN you may get [my] wave 4 or 2 as a proper correction (5-3-5). This is, of course, on a larger TF than your analysis. If your analysis is correct then [your] wave 5 will break the lows earlier than anticipated and that worries me - I was expecting an impulse to 1300's after either a 38.2 or 61.8 correction on the 1D [I'll update this below] - unless its truncated but this is rare [I think?]. Please let me know what...

quote mact4 Hey, this is great. My chart history can only goes as far back as April 2011.
Saw the triangle formation and an ABCDE correction on weekly; saw a correction down (wave 2 on my chart) was due. It was the future forecast after completion of Wave E that bothered me. As I understood it, after a triangular correction, price would carry on down - logically that made no sense. Very hard to see how gold would drop to 5-600, especially given the triple bottom. Your analysis makes so much more sense.


Thank you again for your interest, griffinssoul and mact4. Here's a Gold historical chart with probable projection that might interest you. If this projection is correct, we are in wave (4) of wave [C] of A down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Long Term 02.jpg Size: 231 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #18,299
  • Oct 30, 2014 6:12am Oct 30, 2014 6:12am
Quoting ClockTrader
@ 1206 Long from here with SL @ 1295 IF there is a huge bottom out during US session ahead, I'll give longs another shot. I got nothing right now but to try longs until 1290. Below that, I'm gonna give a pause. Trade Safe! PS: Advise not to lose more than 1-2% a day in small accounts.


Im with you

Some very interesting possibilities here...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #18,300
  • Edited 6:35am Oct 30, 2014 6:21am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} quote mact4 Hey, this is great. My chart history can only goes as far back as April 2011. Saw the triangle formation and an ABCDE correction on weekly; saw a correction down (wave 2 on my chart) was due. It was the future forecast after completion of Wave E that bothered me. As I understood it, after a triangular correction, price would carry on down - logically that made no sense. Very hard to see how gold would drop to 5-600, especially given the triple bottom. Your analysis makes so much more sense. Thank you again for your interest,...
Thanks so much skyhok! That is a monster! - Grand SuperCycle? Thank you for using a log-scale. Would it be better to switch to 1YR? Also I can't read the little numbers (prices)... sorry. Very exciting! 1792-present - that's crazy!!!!!!!!!

This is predicting a major crash (correction) to wave A? What is the price/time range of A - just an estimate?

You are an absolute superstar skyhok!!! This has so much information it will take me some time to analyse - if you can put in some prices at pivots and try the 1YR TF that would be amazing!!!
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