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  • #17,781
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:08am Oct 20, 2014 8:08am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} This is the reason I cleaned shorts off my slate and went on sidelines. {quote} A small peakout on M15. By 12 pm IF this can hit 1250, that would complete one wave and a possible op to short. Lets see how this PA culminates. {image}
Looking at excactly the same thing. Even on m5 it confirms it. High volume on the h1 candle too. The things i don't like is we didn't print a new daily high, and the h1 volume is quite low compared to the past ones.

So sideline until we see another massive volume on m15 confirmed by m30/h1, then i'll be looking for a good short
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #17,782
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:08am Oct 20, 2014 8:08am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Hi waleed.khan, may I ask, is there a trade-able correlation/relationship between the usd index and gold. There have been various opinions expressed here and I'd like to know your take on it. Thanks!

HI griffinssoul

Please see the XAUUSD 5 year chart with an overlay of the USD INDEX below. The USD INDEX is marked in blue. The Boxes marked in peach/beige are the times when the inverse relationship is broken.


I think the inverse relationship is pretty clear (70-80%?)... Note the impulse waves and how beautifully they move in opposing directions...

These are significant moves which can be very profitable. Therefore to me the inverse relationship is quite evident.

I have drawn the boxes roughly, but even if you do your own analysis and go 30 years back; you will still see this inverse relationship.

Also looking at it from a different way. The price of Gold is quoted in terms of USD; hence the weakness or strength of USD should be considered along side the demand/supply fundamentals of gold and other macroeconomic fundamentals...

I hope that makes sense...

Cheers!
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  • #17,783
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:13am Oct 20, 2014 8:13am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} HI griffinssoul Please see the XAUUSD 5 year chart with an overlay of the USD INDEX below. ... Cheers! {image}
Many (Many!) Thanks waleed.khan ! As soon as I looked at your superimposed chart, what you were saying was immediately clear.

"Note the impulse waves and how beautifully they move in opposing directions..." you could almost reproduce the waves by holding a mirror on only one side... 'inverse relationship'
  • #17,784
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:25am Oct 20, 2014 8:25am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Looking at excactly the same thing. Even on m5 it confirms it. High volume on the h1 candle too. The things i don't like is we didn't print a new daily high, and the h1 volume is quite low compared to the past ones. So sideline until we see another massive volume on m15 confirmed by m30/h1, then i'll be looking for a good short
> High volume on the h1 candle too.

----> Dead low on my chart.

> So sideline until we see another massive volume on m15 confirmed by m30/h1, then i'll be looking for a good short

----> Usually when Gold is bullish, peakout on M15 can be ignored. BUT, this peakout on m15 would be on top of H1, H4, Daily peakouts. Which means a top like Mt Everest. I would wait for the next key hr NY 12 pm. IF PA doesn't satisfy, I'll wait further for Asian session.

Sitting on sidelines is always a luxury for me.
Hello World!
  • #17,785
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:35am Oct 20, 2014 8:35am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} > High volume on the h1 candle too. ----> Dead low on my chart. > So sideline until we see another massive volume on m15 confirmed by m30/h1, then i'll be looking for a good short ----> Usually when Gold is bullish, peakout on M15 can be ignored. BUT, this peakout on m15 would be on top of H1, H4, Daily peakouts. Which means a top like Mt Everest. I would wait for the next key hr NY 12 pm. IF PA doesn't satisfy, I'll wait further for Asian session. Sitting on sidelines is always a luxury for me.
When i meant high volume on h1, i was referring to the fact the volume was the highest of the day for h1 candle so far, but overall its pretty low to me as well
And NY is coming, so the day is young still.

I agree with your view, but still sideline here too, no point taking a bad trade at the very beginning of the week
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #17,786
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:44am Oct 20, 2014 8:44am
Our preference: Long above 1221.5 with targets 1250/1262.

Alternative: short Below 1221.5 with targets 1215/1200.
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  • #17,787
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:53am Oct 20, 2014 8:53am
This is how my H1 looks like..

Quoting kuroro001
{quote} When i meant high volume on h1, i was referring to the fact the volume was the highest of the day for h1 candle so far, but overall its pretty low to me as well And NY is coming, so the day is young still. I agree with your view, but still sideline here too, no point taking a bad trade at the very beginning of the week
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Hello World!
  • #17,788
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:17am Oct 20, 2014 9:17am
Quoting ClockTrader
This is how my H1 looks like.. {quote} {image}
Yes mate, same here, increasing vol on h1, but very low overall
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #17,789
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:23am Oct 20, 2014 9:23am
well for me 1257 is the next level to look out for.. i stick by my view.. when gold was falling almost everyone except a few were saying this level nd up this level and up that level nd up.. it kept falling like a landslide... like i said.. i can see that happening again gold was almost near its extraction cost nd it bounced from there.. it was at 120X nd everyone said 1207 and down.. it was in 121X everyone said 1218 and down.. it was in 122X and everyone said 1228 and down.. it was in 123X everyone said 1240 and down.. nd gold just keeps pushing everything aside..

however the landslide was helped on its way by a relentless Dollar index power touching its 4 year highs.. dollar is pretty much strong still but looking at the other currencies rising i.e BP.. gold might just push through again..

1257 is the level to look out for now as shown below.. if there is any chance of a bull run now.. a close above that level tomorrow might result in more upward movement.. my eventual target is around 1270-1275thou im not sure if that will hold either.. and that level by the way.. will mark a breakout of the weekly triangle if it can reach there..
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  • #17,790
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:24am Oct 20, 2014 9:24am
the break out today..
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  • #17,791
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:28am Oct 20, 2014 9:28am
the weekly triangle..

P.s if this breaks out.. i have a feeling your "seasons" might not just be over yet @CT.. we may end november or december in or around 1350s
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  • #17,792
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:40am Oct 20, 2014 9:40am
Quoting haider13
the weekly triangle.. P.s if this breaks out.. i have a feeling your "seasons" might not just be over yet @CT.. we may end november or december in or around 1350s {image}
Yea, Oct-Bull has been working great, no doubt! But, I would not ignore huge peak-outs on TFs like H1, H4 and day. I expect a correction, even if its like 20 - 40 $s from the top.
Hello World!
  • #17,793
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:42am Oct 20, 2014 9:42am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Yea, Oct-Bull has been working great, no doubt! But, I would not ignore huge peak-outs on TFs like H1, H4 and day. I expect a correction, even if its like 20 - 40 $s from the top.

agreed.. a retest of 1237 cannot be overlooked.. maybe even 1232 tomorrow.. keeping in mind.. no hot datas till thursday
  • #17,794
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:46am Oct 20, 2014 9:46am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} How about posting analysis as well? A descriptive chart would be help too.
what you mean? click the link for the chart reference.
  • #17,795
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:02am Oct 20, 2014 10:02am
Notice that last 2 days High were broken, with no much re-action to the down side so far. Could it try to break Wednesday's High too (1250) ? , lets see.
No guts, no glory
  • #17,796
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:09am Oct 20, 2014 10:09am
No higher high so far for a potential short, contrary to Silver that did what i wanted Gold to do
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #17,797
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:22am Oct 20, 2014 10:22am
hello

How is everyone doing (",)
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #17,798
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:35am Oct 20, 2014 10:35am
Quoting faststare08
{quote} what you mean? click the link for the chart reference.
Why not post the chart here?
Hello World!
  • #17,799
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:36am Oct 20, 2014 10:36am
I'll call it a day now and better wait for Asian morning for the upswing to complete.
Hello World!
  • #17,800
  • Oct 20, 2014 3:53pm Oct 20, 2014 3:53pm
Gold next level should be 1265-70 and then way down. lot of cash can be made from current level to that level and on way back
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