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  • #17,681
  • Oct 16, 2014 10:59pm Oct 16, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting ClockTrader
Mate, you are always welcome here. {quote}
Hi CT, Well, your insights and comments from the start of the trading week rang true and it appears we are back at stalemate, once again, moving into the weekend. Any comments and/or analysis would be most welcome.
  • #17,682
  • Oct 16, 2014 11:02pm Oct 16, 2014 11:02pm
Since its a Friday, price can go $4-5 zig-zag, up and down irrationally

Regardless of that my view & positions remain short.

 

  1. I'll let shorts go if price hits 1248-50, this would be my SL for many shorts.
  2. However, IF there is a huge peakout around 1248-55, I'll sell again, a lot lighter though.
  3. Given my MM I'm not heavy. Advise Trade Safe.
  4. IF there is a small peakout on M15 around 1240-45, I would add shorts.

I'll wait for NY morning and volatility to take further action.

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Hello World!
  • #17,683
  • Oct 16, 2014 11:20pm Oct 16, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting ClockTrader
Since its a Friday, price can go $4-5 zig-zag, up and down irrationally Regardless of that my view & positions remain short. I'll let shorts go if price hits 1248-50, this would be my SL for many shorts. However, IF there is a huge peakout around 1248-55, I'll sell again, a lot lighter though. Given my MM I'm not heavy. Advise Trade Safe. IF there is a small peakout on M15 around 1240-45, I would add shorts. I'll wait for NY morning and volatility to take further action. {image}
Many thanks CT! We're heading for a show-down that's for sure... (4H TF)... it would be good to get more of an indication by the end of trading (looking forward to a new trading week)...
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  • #17,684
  • Edited 6:47am Oct 17, 2014 4:35am | Edited 6:47am
King Dollar: a Public Service Announcement

after hitting (and slightly overshooting) its 127% fib target at ~86.6, the DX has reversed course in a pretty significant way

I was discussing "parabolics" on this thread with someone, who insisted that the Dollar had much more room to the upside... right before it turned south

While Im still in the camp of USD bulls in the longer term, parabolic moves seem to ALWAYS end up the same way

Heres a chart of where I see a natural level for the DX to settle before continuing a long term upward march... this could be a part of your playbook for FX pairs over the next few weeks

The reason Im posting the DX chart here in a GOLD thread is because, I have seen a lot of chatter about the correlation between Dollar and Gold and I want to reiterate the following:

DX HAS ALMOST NO TRADABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH GOLD, ANY RECENT PERCEIVED CORRELATIONS ARE PURELY COINCIDENTAL AND YOU WOULD BE WELL SERVED BY IGNORING THEM AND LOOKING INSTEAD AT THE JPY FUTURES

... there is an old adage that during times of extreme volatility, all correlations go to ±1... in recent days/weeks, we have seen high levels of volatility in many asset classes which may explain the perception of a correlation between DX and GOLD...

...those who insist on the contrary should do their homework before confusing newcomers...

DX Weekly
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wishing everyone a great trading day
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,685
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:48am Oct 17, 2014 4:48am
Quoting theDHT
King Dollar: a Public Service Announcement after hitting (and slightly overshooting) its 127% fib target at ~86.6, the DX has reversed course in a pretty significant way I was discussing "parabolics" on this thread with someone, who insisted that the Dollar had much more room to the upside... right before it turned south While Im still in the camp of USD bulls in the longer term, parabolic moves seem to ALWAYS end up the same way Heres a chart of where I see a natural level for the DX to settle before continuing a long term upward march... this...
AWESOME TIP
Respect the inescapable certainity of Math
  • #17,686
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:01am Oct 17, 2014 5:01am
Quoting theDHT
...DX HAS ALMOST NO TRADABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH GOLD, ANY RECENT PERCEIVED CORRELATIONS ARE PURELY COINCIDENTAL AND YOU WOULD BE WELL SERVED BY IGNORING THEM AND LOOKING INSTEAD AT THE JPY FUTURES ...
Hi theDHT, Thanks for the information. I thought, generally speaking, the two are inversely proportion to one another for obvious hedging reasons, corrupted perhaps by various factors. Is this not true and, if not, why?
  • #17,687
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:05am Oct 17, 2014 5:05am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Hi theDHT, Thanks for the information. I thought, generally speaking, the two are inversely proportion to one another for obvious hedging reasons, corrupted perhaps by various factors. Is this not true and, if not, why?

this is true in theory,
note that i said "tradable relationship"

all assets are correlated somehow... using the DX to trade GOLD will burn you in the longer term

better to use JPY for a more robust and immediate effect

most of us are retail/day traders trying to make some money in these markets, we are not large hedge funds/multi national companies or SWF's... (or college professors for that matter)

nor is this a purely theoretical exercise... any relationship touted to have predictive power MUST be robust... or we lose our shirts...

add: since the introduction of QE by the FED, many of the old paradigms have stopped working, or are working less efficiently, the relationship between USD and GOLD is one such example... in my view, despite what is being said publicly, I do not think the fed can exit its management of the markets as easily as they are communicating: ie QE is here to stay... this would likely distort the relationships even further
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,688
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:09am Oct 17, 2014 5:09am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} this is true in theory, note that i said "tradable relationship" all assets are correlated somehow... using the DX to trade GOLD will burn you in the longer term better to use JPY for a more robust and immediate effect most of us are retail/day traders trying to make some money in these markets, we are not large hedge funds/multi national companies or SWF's... (or college professors for that matter) nor is this a purely theoretical exercise... any relationship touted to have predictive power MUST be robust... or we lose our shirts...
Oh, I see, good point. No, perhaps not a good idea as an indicator. Certainly not in the way I would use correlated pairs anyway. Thanks!
  • #17,689
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:36am Oct 17, 2014 6:36am
Further mitigated risk by adjusting SLs on shorts.
Hello World!
  • #17,690
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:21am Oct 17, 2014 7:21am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} this is true in theory, note that i said "tradable relationship" all assets are correlated somehow... using the DX to trade GOLD will burn you in the longer term better to use JPY for a more robust and immediate effect most of us are retail/day traders trying to make some money in these markets, we are not large hedge funds/multi national companies or SWF's... (or college professors for that matter) nor is this a purely theoretical exercise... any relationship touted to have predictive power MUST be robust... or we lose our shirts... add:...

a final point on this note:

USD/JPY is and has been, an excellent inverse proxy for GOLD, the relationship can be empirically mapped over a long time frame... and a tradable relationship can be established...

...and, I expect that it will continue to stand the test of time, in large part because the JPY has become, THE de facto funding currency for risk appetite/trends, and this will likely remain the case for the foreseeable future as Japan has no way out of its economic malaise;

any attempt by the BoJ to halt/alter this transmission mechanism would have catastrophic implications for one of the worlds most significant economies (Japan) and the knock on effects would be hard to fathom...

just my 2 cents... :nerd:
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,691
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:41am Oct 17, 2014 7:41am
Quoting ClockTrader
Further mitigated risk by adjusting SLs on shorts.
This could end-up peaking-out today..
Hello World!
  • #17,692
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:49am Oct 17, 2014 7:49am
Wonder where people are today?
Hello World!
  • #17,693
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:52am Oct 17, 2014 7:52am
Quoting ClockTrader
Wonder where people are today?
All quiet on the Western Front ... I was hoping for something more decisive... its what you said CT yoyo Friday...

That's it for me traders - have a nice weekend!
  • #17,694
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:55am Oct 17, 2014 7:55am
Quoting ClockTrader
Wonder where people are today?
Today is scalping day, not supposed to post views
  • #17,695
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:58am Oct 17, 2014 7:58am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} All quiet on the Western Front ... I was hoping for something more decisive... its what you said CT yoyo Friday... That's it for me traders - have a nice weekend!
Instead of decisive, could be confusing. Even though price is tapering, I'm not enjoying shorts.
Hello World!
  • #17,696
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:59am Oct 17, 2014 7:59am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Today is scalping day, not supposed to post views
Yea, scalps are not to be posted here. True!
Hello World!
  • #17,697
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:21am Oct 17, 2014 8:21am
WTF is this stupid Yellen b@#ih saying!!!!!!!
  • #17,698
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:43am Oct 17, 2014 8:43am
my view....waiting to go short if 1254 holds or 1283-95 area.


The key question is whether the recent bounce back from the $1180/85 area is the start of a triple bottom pattern or another false hope for the long-term bulls. We may get some more clues depending on what gold will do around the key area of $1240/45 which is currently being tested as resistance. The $1240/5 is important because not only was this a key support and resistance area in the past, it also ties in with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downswing from July.keep an eye on $1251/2 which is the 50-day SMA. The next key area is around $1283/6 – this is where the 200-day SMA meets the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile support comes in around $1220/2. If gold breaks below here then a revisit of the $1180/5 area could be on the cards.
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Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #17,699
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:42am Oct 17, 2014 9:42am
Closed half of shorts.
Rest on clean BE

Quoting ClockTrader
Since its a Friday, price can go $4-5 zig-zag, up and down irrationally Regardless of that my view & positions remain short. I'll let shorts go if price hits 1248-50, this would be my SL for many shorts. However, IF there is a huge peakout around 1248-55, I'll sell again, a lot lighter though. Given my MM I'm not heavy. Advise Trade Safe. IF there is a small peakout on M15 around 1240-45, I would add shorts. I'll wait for NY morning and volatility to take further action. {image}
Hello World!
  • #17,700
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:53am Oct 17, 2014 9:53am
Quoting ClockTrader
Closed half of shorts. Rest on clean BE {quote}
Wise, as this h1 is turning positive and we may see a move back to the top, if broken we could see a daily move to 1270/90, up to 1305/10
COT: The precious data ignored
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