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  • #17,021
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:29am Oct 3, 2014 11:29am
Quoting bonnzi
silver however does not look as bad as gold what do you think about that
Erm silver looks terrible, its broken down to new multi year lows and its drifting away from the that broken support everyday. Its moving down to $10.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,022
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:31am Oct 3, 2014 11:31am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Erm silver looks terrible, its broken down to new multi year lows and its drifting away from the that broken support everyday. Its moving down to $10.
yea but look at the daily candle
  • #17,023
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:32am Oct 3, 2014 11:32am
Quoting bonnzi
{quote} yea but look at the daily candle
Post a chart?
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,024
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:43am Oct 3, 2014 11:43am
Quoting Spec_And
Down trends still in place and on the verge of a bear flag breakdown again, I'd be very wary of going long here. {image}

Broke out, this looks really ugly now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,025
  • Oct 3, 2014 12:01pm Oct 3, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting richtrader
{quote} Market changes, we have to adjust.
Yea mate, we need to. Psychology and habits take a while to change.

Wish you all a great weekend!
Hello World!
  • #17,026
  • Oct 3, 2014 12:50pm Oct 3, 2014 12:50pm
this may go up from here back to 1200 region. but lets see.;
  • #17,027
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:14pm Oct 3, 2014 3:14pm
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm

Now even the commercials have joined in the selling, this is surprising considering the fact that they have been buying for 5 straight weeks.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,028
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:32pm Oct 3, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Thanks for your input, Wibie This chart at FF is the most handy chart to me atm. The consensus about the numbers is very strong and maybe it's a manouver to trick retail traders, dunno. I'm placing both buy and sell stops. If it goes down, the sell stops get triggered otherwise the buy ones do. But I don't reccomend this technique to anyone bc entry levels are very bad. Good enough to hedge imho Cheers

Hi Karpa, your estimation was right about the NFP. Thank goodness I still hold my short position this week.

Have a nice weekend all & cheers
  • #17,029
  • Oct 4, 2014 4:20am Oct 4, 2014 4:20am
Quoting wibie g
{quote} Hi Karpa, your estimation was right about the NFP. Thank goodness I still hold my short position this week. Have a nice weekend all & cheers
Hi Wibie, thanks. Glad to know you went well


Have a nice weekend you too
  • #17,030
  • Edited 3:52pm Oct 4, 2014 3:37pm | Edited 3:52pm
My Long term gold view..................

gold is in great downtrend pressure if support 1180/5 level breaks.
other indicator is that usdjpy breaks 110.60 level

possible downtrend target (keeping in mind that 50-60% of correction of a major bull trend is fully normal in fx market)

1165 (2005 uptrend line resistance),
1155 (61% correction level of 2008-2012 uptrend ),
1135 (ema target level),
1087 (50% correction level of 2000-2012 uptrend)

if 1180-1184 holds uptrend will start but that chance is so tough now after a weekly close under 1200 1st time in 2 yrs.

some bounce will happen here and there ,but that will be a bull trap I think,expecting a bull trend only when 1243 and 1300 breaks.

major factor will be FOMC meeting on 9 oct

after that november 4 is the USA senate election date.everything can change after the election,major correction in usd index can take place then,gold can fly,

november 30 is swiss gold reserve referendum date,a yes vote in this event will change the total scenario of gold.

Depending on FED rate decision
2015 will be the year of the decade I think,gold can go for 1000 or 1521

so every trader should think before placing position.
Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #17,031
  • Oct 4, 2014 5:20pm Oct 4, 2014 5:20pm
It's in a down trend, only trade short on any time frame, whatever you method. As it approaches weekly and daily demand levels don't trade short into those levels (don't trade long at all). It's really that simple (ya, right!).
Tipster Trendlines - Trade from the chart
  • #17,032
  • Oct 5, 2014 12:02am Oct 5, 2014 12:02am
Quoting Tipster
It's in a down trend, only trade short on any time frame, whatever you method. As it approaches weekly and daily demand levels don't trade short into those levels (don't trade long at all). It's really that simple (ya, right!).
but until Sept 2011 it was really simple just buy and wait so I would not adhere such approach without very accurate money management
  • #17,033
  • Oct 5, 2014 9:29am Oct 5, 2014 9:29am
Target 1050 over the next 6 months....
Que Sera
  • #17,034
  • Oct 5, 2014 9:49am Oct 5, 2014 9:49am
this is the chart which will say everything...........major change in fx market is on the way after a pullback to retest the trendline...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #17,035
  • Oct 5, 2014 10:07am Oct 5, 2014 10:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #17,036
  • Oct 5, 2014 10:09am Oct 5, 2014 10:09am
Quoting XediAnakin
this is the chart which will say everything...........major change in fx market is on the way after a pullback to retest the trendline...{image}

Nice chart

Is it possible for you to change it to weekly and repost?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,037
  • Oct 5, 2014 10:39am Oct 5, 2014 10:39am
my weekly usd index veiw.........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #17,038
  • Oct 5, 2014 11:25am Oct 5, 2014 11:25am
IF your support levels are true, IF these can stand the trial of times. I think I am in a very Bingo position. Very comfy till 1087

All I seek from current levels 1160-90 is a rally towards North, a rally of US $60 - 90

I shall be curious to see how low it can go every year. IF it indeed goes year after year.

Quoting XediAnakin
My Long term gold view.................. gold is in great downtrend pressure if support 1180/5 level breaks. other indicator is that usdjpy breaks 110.60 level possible downtrend target (keeping in mind that 50-60% of correction of a major bull trend is fully normal in fx market) 1165 (2005 uptrend line resistance), 1155 (61% correction level of 2008-2012 uptrend ), 1135 (ema target level), 1087 (50% correction level of 2000-2012 uptrend) if 1180-1184 holds uptrend will start but that chance is so tough now after a weekly close under 1200 1st time...
Hello World!
  • #17,039
  • Oct 5, 2014 5:55pm Oct 5, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting XediAnakin
if 1180-1184 holds uptrend will start but that chance is so tough now after a weekly close under 1200 1st time in 2 yrs.
Very good post.

To add to your point - actually, this is the first time since 2010 that we had weekly close below 1200. It went under 1200 3 times, but that was during the week and it always closed above. The closest was in December 2013, it gone to 1180, but that week closed at $1202.
Shift happens...
  • #17,040
  • Oct 5, 2014 11:17pm Oct 5, 2014 11:17pm
Quoting XediAnakin
My Long term gold view.................. gold is in great downtrend pressure if support 1180/5 level breaks. other indicator is that usdjpy breaks 110.60 level possible downtrend target (keeping in mind that 50-60% of correction of a major bull trend is fully normal in fx market) 1165 (2005 uptrend line resistance), 1155 (61% correction level of 2008-2012 uptrend ), 1135 (ema target level), 1087 (50% correction level of 2000-2012 uptrend) if 1180-1184 holds uptrend will start but that chance is so tough now after a weekly close under 1200 1st time...
Great advice on the long term. Thanks.
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