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  • #16,941
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:58am Oct 3, 2014 2:58am
Today's NFP numbers are expected to come out good, this is, above 200k as last month's 142k was way bellow average.
If this happens, USD will go strong and gold will continue it's journey south.
The higher the NFP, the stronger the USD.
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  • #16,942
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:19am Oct 3, 2014 3:19am
Quoting Karpa
Today's NFP numbers are expected to come out good, this is, above 200k as last month's 142k was way bellow average. If this happens, USD will go strong and gold will continue it's journey south. The higher the NFP, the stronger the USD. {image}
ClockTrader do you share this opinion?
  • #16,943
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:25am Oct 3, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Karpa
Today's NFP numbers are expected to come out good, this is, above 200k as last month's 142k was way bellow average. If this happens, USD will go strong and gold will continue it's journey south. The higher the NFP, the stronger the USD. {image}
Hi Karpa, just like to share my 2 cent on this.

These days I only check FF Calendar for the timings of when HINs gonna happen for the sake of watching out for volatile price move only. I don't pay attention on positive/negative correlation between forecast vs actual figures anymore, cause as you can see in the pic forecast figures are rarely accurate anyway. Price will move to wherever it wants to move. Yesterday's Price Action after Data Release of USD Unemployment Claims was prove of that.

Cheers.
  • #16,944
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:58am Oct 3, 2014 3:58am
It is interesting comparing the UJ pullback with Gold. UJ is still 120 pips from its top whereas Gold is already back at its bottom. Perhaps this is a hint as to where the momentum is. NFP later though that could change things.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,945
  • Oct 3, 2014 4:02am Oct 3, 2014 4:02am
Quoting wibie g
{quote} Hi Karpa, just like to share my 2 cent on this. These days I only check FF Calendar for the timings of when HINs gonna happen for the sake of watching out for volatile price move only. I don't pay attention on positive/negative correlation between forecast vs actual figures anymore, cause as you can see in the pic forecast figures are rarely accurate anyway. Price will move to wherever it wants to move. Yesterday's Price Action after Data Release of USD Unemployment Claims was prove of that. Cheers.
Thanks for your input, Wibie
This chart at FF is the most handy chart to me atm. The consensus about the numbers is very strong and maybe it's a manouver to trick retail traders, dunno.
I'm placing both buy and sell stops. If it goes down, the sell stops get triggered otherwise the buy ones do.
But I don't reccomend this technique to anyone bc entry levels are very bad. Good enough to hedge imho

Cheers
  • #16,946
  • Oct 3, 2014 4:24am Oct 3, 2014 4:24am
Quoting Matts Micro
It is interesting comparing the UJ pullback with Gold. UJ is still 120 pips from its top whereas Gold is already back at its bottom. Perhaps this is a hint as to where the momentum is. NFP later though that could change things.
i dont get the hint haha In the UJ - Gold correlation who is leading and who is following Looking at 1h it looks like gold found at least temporary support at 1207 where as UJ looks bulish to me. What is your view?
  • #16,947
  • Oct 3, 2014 4:32am Oct 3, 2014 4:32am
Quoting Matts Micro
It is interesting comparing the UJ pullback with Gold. UJ is still 120 pips from its top whereas Gold is already back at its bottom. Perhaps this is a hint as to where the momentum is. NFP later though that could change things.
Correlation Gold/USDJPY is 98.4% atm
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market.../XAUUSD-USDJPY
  • #16,948
  • Oct 3, 2014 4:42am Oct 3, 2014 4:42am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Correlation Gold/USDJPY is 98.4% atm http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market.../XAUUSD-USDJPY

USDJPY to GOLD should be an inverse correlation, therefore it should be negative...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,949
  • Oct 3, 2014 4:43am Oct 3, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Landline
I entirely agree.... it can still easily go either way at this point.... its a rangebound market at present, but a useful one nevertheless for nipping 5 dollar intraday trades here and there. My bias though remains long as previously mentioned once the 1200 or the 1240 levels have been breached. Long either scenario will then represent better value to me to get into the market for a patient longer term trade, whilst scalping in between that range. Each to their own of course!
Hi all

An important day awaits us, and no doubt plenty of voatility. I think the 1200 level will get broken and i will be looking to get involved around the 1190-1195 level (maybe today) as previously mentioned, which I believe will be a "value" area to take a small long entry with an approriate stop.

I'd be looking to patiently remain in the trade, adding to my positions along the way, with a view to target the 1300 level initially, and planning my take profits along the journey.

Nothing however is certain, but a plan is a plan at least!
  • #16,950
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:13am Oct 3, 2014 5:13am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} USDJPY to GOLD should be an inverse correlation, therefore it should be negative...
Sure that's obvious, I was refering to percentage, no intention to mislead anyone
  • #16,951
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:17am Oct 3, 2014 5:17am
Quoting bonnzi
{quote} i dont get the hint haha In the UJ - Gold correlation who is leading and who is following Looking at 1h it looks like gold found at least temporary support at 1207 where as UJ looks bulish to me. What is your view?
The support is giving way. I wouldn't expect it to hold with UJ expected to make the long climb back to the top+.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,952
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:23am Oct 3, 2014 5:23am
Bouncing back into support line....but looks weak into NFP

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jCx22zER/

I feel like it's going to get destroyed in a couple of hours, straight to 1180 maybe and a bounce...won't be hard to beat 142K jobs...
  • #16,953
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:44am Oct 3, 2014 5:44am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} The support is giving way. I wouldn't expect it to hold with UJ expected to make the long climb back to the top+.
I am still watching UJ however as it may not of technically finished its pullback. NFP is always good to throw a spanner in the works of any TA however.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,954
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:44am Oct 3, 2014 5:44am
Good Morning

I'm in @ 1206.81 on long, lets see what happens.
Edit: SL 1204, TP 1216,81

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  • #16,955
  • Oct 3, 2014 5:59am Oct 3, 2014 5:59am
whatever the NFP is...................I am long.......MY SL is 1184

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Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #16,956
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:00am Oct 3, 2014 6:00am
Quoting bonnzi
{quote} it is a holiday in Germany today. If bad data comes from US now its probably a good time to run some long stops with this low volatility ...who knows... I really hope we are staying above 1200 today
Quoting AnilLonely
{quote} The Pivot point is aroung 1204 -1203 . If price brks 1203 then i think it should go down the wire. Looking from now, i think it picks up and moves up, may be till 1220 to 1225. Am i correct CT or anything wrong in my analysis.
Quoting forexinwesto
{quote} ClockTrader do you share this opinion?
I don't follow news, just like to use time triggers in my analysis.

As visible in the chart, not a single sign of volatility by far today. The way I see, this is going down. Only reason it could go up from here is that it has silently bottomed out here which is least likely. Most likely, this is going down 1200, however, be informed that its going to bounce nicely after creating today's bottom. I am going to watch VVSA carefully today.

PS: Like I said earlier, my view on broad level from this week has been bullish, however, falls like 10 - 20 from 1200 cannot be ruled out as final bottom may be pending, IMHO.
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Hello World!
  • #16,957
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:03am Oct 3, 2014 6:03am
i dnt knw why i always lose my money in Gold... been trading since 7 years and never made profit .. lost almost $100k

Clock trader brv tell me wht to do...
  • #16,958
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:05am Oct 3, 2014 6:05am
Posted H1 chart earlier, here is 15m as well.

Not a single trace of volatility by far today.

Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} {quote} {quote} I don't follow news, just like to use time triggers in my analysis. As visible in the chart, not a single sign of volatility by far today. The way I see, this is going down. Only reason it could go up from here is that it has silently bottomed out here which is least likely. Most likely, this is going down 1200, however, be informed that its going to bounce nicely after creating today's bottom. I am going to watch VVSA carefully today. PS: Like I said earlier, my view on broad level from this week has been bullish, however,...
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Hello World!
  • #16,959
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:06am Oct 3, 2014 6:06am
Quoting Azmat313
i dnt knw why i always lose my money in Gold... been trading since 7 years and never made profit .. lost almost $100k Clock trader brv tell me wht to do...
I would suggest stop trading.
Hello World!
  • #16,960
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:07am Oct 3, 2014 6:07am
Quoting Azmat313
i dnt knw why i always lose my money in Gold... been trading since 7 years and never made profit .. lost almost $100k Clock trader brv tell me wht to do...
invert your trades or stop trading gold and focus on your winning edges..
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