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  • #15,921
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:43am Sep 11, 2014 9:43am
Quoting haider13
can anyone find a trend line suggesting this fall to stop anywhere or hold it somehow ? cuz i honestly cant.. iv tried two from 2008 and the latest one to break started back in july 2005 ! :/ nothings holding it back anymore {image}
Go the other way.... falling TL's (for bears). They aren't the brickwall but they create smoother indication for trend swings imo.

eg. falling wedges.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #15,922
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:50am Sep 11, 2014 9:50am
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} I'm sure that i read somewhere earlier this year that the production cost of gold is around $1180 per ounce. Surely, that must be about as low as it can go? Any thoughts?
It varies, all in cost can be as low as $800, but you are right gold production will definitely drop if we go that low because some miners will go out of business.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #15,923
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:52am Sep 11, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} 1180 is the next stop, and if this slow grind continues I think 1180 will not hold either. The bulls are buying but they are getting slaughtered.

tell me about being slaughtered lets see where this ends.. shifting to sells now seems like a lost cause.. still trying a few tricks while chopping some green shorts.. lets see if i can get this floating back
  • #15,924
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:54am Sep 11, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Uglybug
{quote} I'm sure that i read somewhere earlier this year that the production cost of gold is around $1180 per ounce. Surely, that must be about as low as it can go? Any thoughts?
I ve just read that 7 largest AU producers managed to decrease the production costs by 25%..which is not a good news for bull traders..
The second part of the article stated that they managed to do so only because of stopping new capital investments (mainly searching for new sites,... labour cost rose so dramatically during 08-12 that it is very difficult to do something about that) which is a good news for bull investors..
The problem now is that, as Larry Williams says, "the market can stay irrational for longer time than you solvent"
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
  • #15,925
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:54am Sep 11, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} It varies, all in cost can be as low as $800, but you are right gold production will definitely drop if we go that low because some miners will go out of business.
It seem like US want gold price to go down by lowering oil price, so they can print more money. Gold production cost will fall if oil price lower.
  • #15,926
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:55am Sep 11, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Landline
Gold 30 min chart is setting up again on my system for another short term buy opportunity. Its likely to be around the 1239.5 mark if and when primed for entry, S/L around 136, TP approx 1243.5. Its not set just right yet for me yet but its developing nicely so far, but may be another candle or two to go yet before exactly time to pull the trigger....I'll keep you posted when I fire if interested.
Current candle priming for 1238.2 long entry.....poss trade in 5 mins time
  • #15,927
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:56am Sep 11, 2014 9:56am
Slaughter!!!

Levels are not holding. I honestly thought 1240 would hold but alas.

Might be wise to act conservatively contrary to trend (as in go long, tight stops of course) in modest amounts down to the dreaded 1180 (or beyond? eek)? Not sure.

I'll personally be going hard long on steep declines (if they occur) with uber tight stops for scalps again but that's probably quite silly. But I won't predefine levels.. who knows which are correct?

Madness. Many mines will have to shut / be put on maintenance at this rate!
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #15,928
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:00am Sep 11, 2014 10:00am
Quoting haider13
{quote} tell me about being slaughtered lets see where this ends.. shifting to sells now seems like a lost cause.. still trying a few tricks while chopping some green shorts.. lets see if i can get this floating back
Move on to another trade, or stay sidelined. Honestly it makes no sense to go long when the selling is so relentless and grindy. Bottoms very rarely occur when the drop is so controlled.

My heart tells me I need to buy this but my head tells me its suicide.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #15,929
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:03am Sep 11, 2014 10:03am
Quoting nicefirework
{quote} It seem like US want gold price to go down by lowering oil price, so they can print more money. Gold production cost will fall if oil price lower.
No idea why oil prices are crashing, but Europe and China are not doing well, so demand will not be strong.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #15,930
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:03am Sep 11, 2014 10:03am
Quoting Landline
{quote} Current candle priming for 1238.2 long entry.....poss trade in 5 mins time
Bought now 1238.79
  • #15,931
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:07am Sep 11, 2014 10:07am
Quoting paddlepip
Slaughter!!! Levels are not holding. I honestly thought 1240 would hold but alas. Might be wise to act conservatively contrary to trend (as in go long, tight stops of course) in modest amounts down to the dreaded 1180 (or beyond? eek)? Not sure. I'll personally be going hard long on steep declines (if they occur) with uber tight stops for scalps again but that's probably quite silly. But I won't predefine levels.. who knows which are correct? Madness. Many mines will have to shut / be put on maintenance at this rate!
Thats suicide mate. What if you avg all the way down to 1180 and it breaks thru 1180 to 1100?
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #15,932
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:11am Sep 11, 2014 10:11am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} Thats suicide mate. What if you avg all the way down to 1180 and it breaks thru 1180 to 1100?
I very much agree with you on that, and doubly important when looking to scalp imo
  • #15,933
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:28am Sep 11, 2014 10:28am
Quoting Spec_And
Thats suicide mate. What if you avg all the way down to 1180 and it breaks thru 1180 to 1100?
lol. God no I'm not advocating letting positions run and averaging down and I hope no one took it that way. Just catching spikes, contrary to trend (with an unmovable stop very close).

You're correct in saying it's suicidal, if you let it run. That would be devastating. So I retract "it might be wise" and replace with "could be opportunistic".

We are approaching the cost of production here for many mines however. If this continues, one would imagine buyers of gold would be aware of this?

Whatever your course of action, safety first... naturally.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #15,934
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:32am Sep 11, 2014 10:32am
unfortunately - as allways - the scheme is the same: if only everybody is 'to buy' and the 'minority' is interested in selling - the price goes down (last weeks). and now we are slowly approaching the opposite moment
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #15,935
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:07am Sep 11, 2014 11:07am
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} Sure, but it would be stupid to deny that this year seasons did not work. Except if you still want to say that the June's one-month lasting 100$ correction to local downtrend is what you meant by Golden Seasons
If I see it the way you do, Seasons didn't work in 2008 either, but investors who followed seasons in that year made a killing.
Hello World!
  • #15,936
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:08am Sep 11, 2014 11:08am
Just closed a short lying @ 1309

Current ~1239
Hello World!
  • #15,937
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:10am Sep 11, 2014 11:10am
Quoting Spec_And
Layers upon layers of supports turned resistances, due to the way price grinded lower... {image}
Your VVSA bars look interesting.
Hello World!
  • #15,938
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:12am Sep 11, 2014 11:12am
Just closed my short at 1,236 from 1,246. Good green. On the sidelines for now. I'll wait and see what tomorrow holds. Have a good evening people.
  • #15,939
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:31am Sep 11, 2014 11:31am
Longs: 30
Shorts: 14

NET: 16 longs

Longs are pain, but, not any risk by far. Another week or two is all Bears have got. Thereafter I expect Bulls to take charge. On broad level my view remains bearish.

Have a nice one you all.

PS: Closed one short in nice green today.
Hello World!
  • #15,940
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:50am Sep 11, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Not sure Silver can be ignored, we may already be past the point of no return.
true... but the day still isn't over...(late rally?) but i agree momentum is down...would take a lot to hold above the mentioned levels...

Quoting haider13
out of the 1240.2 long @1246.5.. decent green.. but im gonna need a whole lot more off them.. iv taken quite a beating in this fall.. {quote} precisely !! a closing atleast above 1243 will probably save it from further crashing.. but a closing around 1250 is what might trigger the next rally.. which will be a small long rally.. say 1275-1280 probably the 50% fabbonacci
yes this fall was tricky...

Todays close is going to be crucial i think...if it doesn't post a rejection candle and bounce above 1242; then indeed we are going lower...however if it does hold then that could be the start of wave 3 in which case it could go way higher...

However in a broader context; the USD index has clearly broken out to the upside and perhaps will continue going up for some time now...which will undoubtedly put a lot of pressure on gold... <have a look at usdjpy - it has finally broken out of a very tight range> (generally after such congestion the moves are extreme; so we might just see usdjpy at a ridiculous number by the year end...which needless to say should have an inverse effect on gold.

again...I'm watching today's close; if it doesn't hold then the whole "bullish impulse wave structure" is going to break" and we will have to revert our longer term count to that of a "corrective wave".
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