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  • #14,521
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:44pm Aug 15, 2014 12:44pm
Looking back at this trade; I unfortunately pulled out at the first area of resistance... If only I held on... look how the support areas hae held. Patience really pays!

https://www.tradingview.com/v/9pZNtOqF/
  • #14,522
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:44pm Aug 15, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Agreed.. Golds daily chart looks a lot better... I really think it has bottomed out at 1280... and the fact that it has (so far) held above 1290 proves ( as per elliott rules of 4th wave not entering into the price territory of wave 1) that the elliott wave structure is still in play and will take it to 1400+ in the coming days and weeks...
Think 1300 is inevitable again?
  • #14,523
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:50pm Aug 15, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Think 1300 is inevitable again?
no clue... it could go all the way back down to that pinbar too... or worse break it! As I said before this is right now the C leg of the zigzag (which really should take it well below the 1295 level) but given the circumstances and the probable "buying support area/pressure" it should end up being truncated..

A close above 1307-08 now would mean that the correction is over... and the bullish impulse wave is about to start!

*The truncation* could eventually turn out to be consolidation triangle too... which I certainly don't mind! as long as price stays above (WE ARE GOLDEN)
  • #14,524
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:53pm Aug 15, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} no clue... it could go all the way back down to that pinbar too... or worse break it! As I said before this is right now the C leg of the zigzag (which really should take it well below the 1295 level) but given the circumstances and the probable "buying support area/pressure" it should end up being truncated.. A close above 1307-08 now would mean that the correction is over... and the bullish impulse wave is about to start!

US mkt selling off to new lows now would pump it up real good for the metals..
  • #14,525
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:58pm Aug 15, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} US mkt selling off to new lows now would pump it up real good for the metals..
XAU dropping down again. Probably we may go below 1300 mark again before day closes today.
  • #14,526
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:15pm Aug 15, 2014 2:15pm
Technically this looks really bullish. Silver too after coming down to the lows and holding…US tech rallied back up and failed as of right now…. Looking good going to next week for 1321 and $20+ silver.
  • #14,527
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:20pm Aug 15, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} US mkt selling off to new lows now would pump it up real good for the metals..

They've retraced...

The real question is Are on the brink of war...?

Ukraine clearly is not going to release those 200 plus convoy trucks...until it checks each and everyone of those boxes...(could take days!)

Russia will keep denying sending military convoys... (Great divergence play)

Russia might use the pretext of the west & Ukraine not letting those convoys in time as denial of humanitarian aid... (This gives Putin the grounds for declaring war...and thus become a hero/liberator)

After this Europe will start providing the eastern bloc countries with more military eqipment.... German and british factories will find demand... Plus Europe will find excuse for a slumping economy (blame it on Russia) like the U.S blamed the (weather for their poor first quarter performance). All this buys time and keeps confidence in the system afloat!
  • #14,528
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:31pm Aug 15, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} They've retraced... The real question is Are on the brink of war...? Ukraine clearly is not going to release those 200 plus convoy trucks...until it checks each and everyone of those boxes...(could take days!) Russia will keep denying sending military convoys... (Great divergence play) Russia might use the pretext of the west & Ukraine not letting those convoys in time as denial of humanitarian aid... (This gives Putin the grounds for declaring war...and thus become a hero/liberator) After this Europe will start providing the eastern bloc...

Don't think war is coming. But the uncertainty of it can cause major damage to stock mkts.
  • #14,529
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:33pm Aug 15, 2014 2:33pm
I don't think the "main convoy" is the problem Ukraine is concerned with. There has been border crossings of troops carriers etc. all through the conflict and the convoy could be just a decoy. I'm not sure but I think it was one of these illegal convoys that Ukraine attacked earlier.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #14,530
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:34pm Aug 15, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Don't think war is coming. But the uncertainty of it can cause major damage to stock mkts.

Putin is a chess player!
  • #14,531
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:36pm Aug 15, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I don't think the "main convoy" is the problem Ukraine is concerned with. There has been border crossings of troops carriers etc. all through the conflict and the convoy could be just a decoy. I'm not sure but I think it was one of these illegal convoys that Ukraine attacked earlier.

Yes it is a decoy...

and it is pretext...280 trucks; loaded with small boxes... Putin knew that there might be issues... and denying or stalling this might just give Putin the reason to act finally!
  • #14,532
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:37pm Aug 15, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Putin is a chess player!
Yes and a very smart player. His whole strat at the start of this story was quite deliberate and well planned. The international community couldn't really do much to prevent what was happening... until the plane came down. Makes you think a bit?
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #14,533
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:37pm Aug 15, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting waleed.khan
We just might have one more leg down to retest the support area... This pattern was a double Abc flat... where the last wave was a zigzag; which might see its 5th down leg but I suspect it will be truncated and not go beyond or if it does then 1290 should hold.... *also look at the volumes on the hourly chart; they seem to have dwarfed everything in recent month* (These are good signs)
Hello, I am a new member. Have been reading the posts for quite some time and stunning by how much knowledge is all around and got shared here. Waleed, I find many of your posts are quite resourceful and very analytical, thanks for sharing it to the public space. I learn so much. Just wondering how you count the wave as stated "double Abc flat and last wave was a zigzag; which might see its 5th down leg..." I am a newbie here but I also compared my H4 and D1 wave counting to your previous posts on them and they are pretty similar. But I still cannot figure how to count the double Abc. Any chart illustration would be so great. Thank you!
  • #14,534
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:42pm Aug 15, 2014 2:42pm
ok. good night folks. Made a good amount of green today. As of now hedging with 2 long and 1 short positions. Either way movement will fetch me some profit.

Hope we shall see a clear picture on Monday. Bye have a gr8 weekend everyone
  • #14,535
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:43pm Aug 15, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yes and a very smart player. His whole strat at the start of this story was quite deliberate and well planned. The international community couldn't really do much to prevent what was happening... until the plane came down. Makes you think a bit?

Agreed...

Even though I think the West kinda provoked him...

Remember Putin's man was removed from office in ukraine and replaced by Poroshenko...

Russia got Crimea...but they don't want to lose their influence over ukraine... and Putin has been building a story to do this...
  • #14,536
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:44pm Aug 15, 2014 2:44pm
Put it this way. Anyone who thinks their government is on the side of the angels really needs their read imo.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #14,537
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:46pm Aug 15, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Matts Micro
Put it this way. Anyone who thinks their government is on the side of the angels really needs their read imo.

Lol!
  • #14,538
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:48pm Aug 15, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Agreed... Even though I think the West kinda provoked him... Remember Putin's man was removed from office in ukraine and replaced by Poroshenko... Russia got Crimea...but they don't want to lose their influence over ukraine... and Putin has been building a story to do this...
There is a whole history lesson here and it's 3am here in the land of Oz lol.

I'm out.

Peace on earth
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #14,539
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:50pm Aug 15, 2014 2:50pm
Fellas, I am off to the weekend. leaving behind five silver longs and one gold long duly, all duly protected as per my MM rules.

best wishes to all.

p.s. some guy said Russia would invade Ukraine. if not last sunday, this sunday. let´s see if he knew what he was talking about.
  • #14,540
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:52pm Aug 15, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} There is a whole history lesson here and it's 3am here in the land of Oz lol. I'm out. Peace on earth

haha... yes (this kinda takes me back in time to international relation conflict/resolution) classes back in college!

have a nice one... Indeed peace on Earth & mean no ill will to anyone! (but gold must go up!)
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