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  • #12,961
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:44pm Jul 31, 2014 12:44pm
today gold breaks 200 dma, for the first time since mid June
so I think it will be more realistic to short, especially for short or medium term
  • #12,962
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:00pm Jul 31, 2014 1:00pm
hello all,

my current view on daily chart as i already closed my short, and opened new one targeting 1264 then 1230.

gl all
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  • #12,963
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:02pm Jul 31, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting Ck87
Feel 1280 should provide short term support and we move back up to 1292-1300 in the next days… that or 1268 but for some reason favoring 1292 first. Guess we can't really forget about NFP tomorrow which is gonna be massive….. A lot of times ahead of big news event like that we see very tight range dominated by traders…. so maybe something like Buy 1280-1281 and sell 1285.50 is what we'll see the most for the next 12-16 hrs…. Don't even know if I'll have a trade open before NFP… usually kills me.
Indeed. I closed shorts opened 1298 and 1295 at 1282, and now on sidelines waiting for NFP. Though bias looks short, think we could see pa to 1300, particularly if NFP disappoints.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #12,964
  • Edited 1:57pm Jul 31, 2014 1:22pm | Edited 1:57pm
buy gold on 1281 for TP 1307
SL=1277
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  • #12,965
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:23pm Jul 31, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} Indeed. I closed shorts opened 1298 and 1295 at 1282, and now on sidelines waiting for NFP. Though bias looks short, think we could see pa to 1300, particularly if NFP disappoints.
Just a note for the nfp it could be very very tricky
the thing is the 80-90 zone could forme a bottom that dosent meen it could not spike at news time i would advice for buying low in this market , the maid reson really is i belive the gold has found a bottom i would be very happy to see it back to the 1290-300 zone that i belive its needed now to be tested befor it falls back down again to the 1200 - 1180 zone one more time
Any way at the end we trade what we see not what we belive in (",)
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #12,966
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:35pm Jul 31, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting lorix
{quote} Just a note for the nfp it could be very very tricky the thing is the 80-90 zone could forme a bottom that dosent meen it could not spike at news time i would advice for buying low in this market , the maid reson really is i belive the gold has found a bottom i would be very happy to see it back to the 1290-300 zone that i belive its needed now to be tested befor it falls back down again to the 1200 - 1180 zone one more time Any way at the end we trade what we see not what we belive in (",)
I suspect that tomorrow is the last big hurrah before many traders depart for summer holiday....though I would love to see prices back up as well (I will short on any upward spikes) and reload shorts for longer term trades. It think we're likely to see 1150 before end of 2014, and even lower in 2015 as interest rates go higher.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #12,967
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:39pm Jul 31, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} What is Customstv3 indicator on your chart?
hi heispart, this is one of my very personal indicator.
thank you.
Every man who thinks ahead of his time is sure to be misunderstood.
  • #12,968
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:56pm Jul 31, 2014 2:56pm
my view on gold in the big picture

gold gave the first bearish sign on sep, 2011 on monthly chart,since then gold never broke the monthly resis. till feb,2014. on feb.,2014 silver monthly res. was exactly 22.15 , silver failed to break it

on june 2014 gold made a test for the low of feb,2014 bar, faild to break it and had a rally up , in the meanwhile silver monthly resis on june 2014 was 20.98 , silver was able to break it and became freshly bullish as gold for the first time since 2011

whoever has a fat bank account ,wants to protect his cash value against inflation and to have a good investment,do what c.t. is doing,my father is doing it the same way he just keeps buying,if i tell him gold may go down he just tell me ok when it goes down i will buy more,he refuses to hedge,and i have a cousin doing the same thing but with silver..good luck to you all
  • #12,969
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:00pm Jul 31, 2014 3:00pm
Just wayyyy too many longs… When I see that longs dip below 70% and more people are shorting then I can have faith in gold going up, until then sell sell sell every rally. I still think we're going to go to 1000 within the next year or two

I'm a broken record though. Have a good one guys!
  • #12,970
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:23pm Jul 31, 2014 3:23pm
gold buy is at 1200 for 1700.
  • #12,971
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:41pm Jul 31, 2014 3:41pm
Exactly how much does it cost to produce an ounce of gold?

http://business.financialpost.com/20...ounce-of-gold/
  • #12,972
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:53pm Jul 31, 2014 4:53pm
Quoting Ck87
Just wayyyy too many longs… When I see that longs dip below 70% and more people are shorting then I can have faith in gold going up, until then sell sell sell every rally. I still think we're going to go to 1000 within the next year or two I'm a broken record though. Have a good one guys!
Ck I just wanted to show you what i am seeing on my long term chart and the reason i dont think we will dip bellow 170 unless we are headed down to 700's...

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If as you say we are headed to 1000 over the next 12-24 months then we will be entering a new period of free fall as the lagging average will cross bellow the Kumo and this indicates a Very strong Bear run...

If you then compare the weekly to the monthly...

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You can see that the moving averages are headed back above the Kumo for the first time since the end of 2012.. this happening is a bullish signal but if the lagging average (which trades at the mid but 26 sessions behind) can also break the top end of the kumo (also the average but 26 sessions in front) then this will indicate the end of the bear run as like on the way down momentum will pick up at a very fast rate and it will be time to load up to the eye balls.

I have not known or been using this system long but i have checked it over on hundreds of charts including gold on many different time frames and every single time it has worked too the T not once has it failed.

If we do see $1000 it will need to be within the next 6 months otherwise monthly chart will cross the Kumo and it will indicate gold has had its day and people will be piling into move useful commodities. (not going to happen)



AIMO of course.
Que Sera
  • #12,973
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:54pm Jul 31, 2014 4:54pm
Yes I've read similar articles..they all point to a bottom operating price of 1100$ per ounce...if the gold falls below it, the mining companies said that they will either cut production or shut down the mining until price goes above, but I don't believe that they will cease the production in total if that happens..
  • #12,974
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:10pm Jul 31, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting merquise
Yes I've read similar articles..they all point to a bottom operating price of 1100$ per ounce...if the gold falls below it, the mining companies said that they will either cut production or shut down the mining until price goes above, but I don't believe that they will cease the production in total if that happens..
Yes indeed. Gold isn't a pump and dump and is certainly not headed back to where it came from. I doubt very much it will break the bottom on any down movement and if it does it won't be long lived as everybody knows its going one way long term.
Que Sera
  • #12,975
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:24pm Jul 31, 2014 5:24pm
golds going to retrace this month, 1330-1340 is target. Its at its demand level right now and sitting on the 25 RSI mark. I think we'll see volatility tomorrow however once the news settles its going to tread water for a week or two then head straight back up.
  • #12,976
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:57pm Jul 31, 2014 5:57pm
make no mistake, gold is a highly manipulated asset and its "real" price is way more than what we are seeing today. But this is an investor point of view, not trader. My two cents: We should see a range between 1180 and 1400 ish in the foreseeable future.
  • #12,977
  • Jul 31, 2014 6:10pm Jul 31, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting diegobeyer
make no mistake, gold is a highly manipulated asset and its "real" price is way more than what we are seeing today. But this is an investor point of view, not trader. My two cents: We should see a range between 1180 and 1400 ish in the foreseeable future.
Have you got any proof of that, charts?.. can't come on here making wild claims like that without backing it up with some evidence

Time for me to sleep, have a prosperous day all.
Que Sera
  • #12,978
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:23pm Jul 31, 2014 9:23pm
I used to work in this industry and small changes to the price of gold can actually shut sites down. The overheads are formidable with massive production costs.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #12,979
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:37pm Jul 31, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I used to work in this industry and small changes to the price of gold can actually shut sites down. The overheads are formidable with massive production costs.

Does any know what the cost of gold is to extract it from the ground? If gold cost a mine $1230 o/z to dig up, And gold is at $1283. When would miners stop digging? Interesting thought to ponder..
  • #12,980
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:41pm Jul 31, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting fxsnakes
{quote} Does any know what the cost of gold is to extract it from the ground? If gold cost a mine $1230 o/z to dig up, And gold is at $1283. When would miners stop digging? Interesting thought to ponder..

It's known that production continues in times like that. It's happened many times for oil producers and whatever else. Pretty sure Jim Rogers has talked about this and he knows a thing or two about commodities. I think a lot of these producers hedge to protect themselves ..
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