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Only Gold!

  • #12,721
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:05pm Jul 29, 2014 11:05pm
This is what I got to share for today.. PA may blow my shorts and then come down, thats my one concern.

Positions in two screenshots (SS), below and above 1300

Expect the price to be highly volatile and unpredictable, therefore in no mood to use SL today.

Prepared to buy in 80ish
Attached Images
Hello World!
  • #12,722
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:50pm Jul 29, 2014 11:50pm
if you know your mathematics right, (MM) you increase your chances of winning and decrease your chances of losing in the trades no matter how the market moves.....technical and fundamental analysis can only keep us busy....mathematical trading gives us money.....solid equity...hedge trade...MM....can increase your equity, rain or shine......
learn and earn from the ups and downs...of life.
  • #12,723
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:56pm Jul 29, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting shinewel
if you know your mathematics right, (MM) you increase your chances of winning and decrease your chances of losing in the trades no matter how the market moves.....technical and fundamental analysis can only keep us busy....mathematical trading gives us money.....solid equity...hedge trade...MM....can increase your equity, rain or shine......
  • #12,724
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:03am Jul 30, 2014 12:03am
Danny,

I am not your average Trader. I have liquidated a lot of stuff (No Indicator and Trend Lines) only use Mathematics.
Starting from H/L I add/deduct the following Percentage Numbers. 0.125 0.25 .375 .50 .625 .75 .875 and 1 and further out the same thing. Further you need to count your waves. There are in principle 3 and 5 waves in an uptrend and 3 waves in a downtrend. When I look at the Chart I will see all my Bars going in one Direction as soon as 2 or 3 Bars going counter ways I consider the Wave completed. Now, these waves want be in total either 3 or 5. Percentages are calculated from L/H and expanded by the percentages. Good Idea would be to close the Trade a few pips before the Target is reached. Stop Loss is set at the beginning H/L and not using a trailing Stop Best way to trade is to go with the trend for the first 3 waves and take profit and reenter. Please take note, this is in no way any Trading advise.

Hope this helps

Regards
Fred
  • #12,725
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:51am Jul 30, 2014 12:51am
Quoting shinewel
if you know your mathematics right, (MM) you increase your chances of winning and decrease your chances of losing in the trades no matter how the market moves.....technical and fundamental analysis can only keep us busy....mathematical trading gives us money.....solid equity...hedge trade...MM....can increase your equity, rain or shine......
I believe majority of people know how MM works, problem is with self-discipline, lack of self-control and being too greedy.

At the end of day, everyone of us wants to take risk, use SL to see if this strategy would work. It takes time to improve and see your things work..
Hello World!
  • #12,726
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:54am Jul 30, 2014 12:54am
>> There are in principle 3 and 5 waves in an uptrend and 3 waves in a downtrend.

That was interesting and convincing..


Quoting sunnyfarm
Danny, I am not your average Trader. I have liquidated a lot of stuff (No Indicator and Trend Lines) only use Mathematics. Starting from H/L I add/deduct the following Percentage Numbers. 0.125 0.25 .375 .50 .625 .75 .875 and 1 and further out the same thing. Further you need to count your waves. There are in principle 3 and 5 waves in an uptrend and 3 waves in a downtrend. When I look at the Chart I will see all my Bars going in one Direction as soon as 2 or 3 Bars going counter ways I consider the Wave completed. Now, these waves want be in total...
Hello World!
  • #12,727
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:55am Jul 30, 2014 12:55am
absolutely and 100% agree with your Statement. Learn the Math and you do well. Learn and stay out of dull Markets.,
  • #12,728
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:56am Jul 30, 2014 12:56am
Quoting ClockTrader
This is what I got to share for today.. PA may blow my shorts and then come down, thats my one concern. Positions in two screenshots (SS), below and above 1300 Expect the price to be highly volatile and unpredictable, therefore in no mood to use SL today. Prepared to buy in 80ish {image} {image}
I just closed 4 GREEN longs in the 90ish range, kinda not in line with my strategy to take profits from longs but shorts only, yet..
Hello World!
  • #12,729
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:52am Jul 30, 2014 1:52am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I just closed 4 GREEN longs in the 90ish range, kinda not in line with my strategy to take profits from longs but shorts only, yet..
As long as I'm committed to not close any position in loss (except nominal) and as long as I keep taking profit 2-3 times every week, I think this is going to be a smooth ride.

PS: Only thing I've lagged in the past is lack of effective hedging due to some good and some stupid reasons.
Hello World!
  • #12,730
  • Jul 30, 2014 2:46am Jul 30, 2014 2:46am
It appears as though we will be stuck in the present $2 range till NY news. Difficult to even scalp a few pips, so will get some R & R till the news, expecting some action then.
  • #12,731
  • Jul 30, 2014 2:57am Jul 30, 2014 2:57am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} As long as I'm committed to not close any position in loss (except nominal) and as long as I keep taking profit 2-3 times every week, I think this is going to be a smooth ride. PS: Only thing I've lagged in the past is lack of effective hedging due to some good and some stupid reasons.
Hi,
Just interested if your strategy takes into account when/if price takes off in one direction or another and doesn't look back. Do you have a time span, top/bottom etc that you may adhere to and would the profits still out perform the loses in this scenario? Or are you just referring to your longs as per your outlined strategy? I am not trying to be smart in asking because I have often thought of using this strat as well, especially with gold because of its volatility.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #12,732
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:36am Jul 30, 2014 3:36am
i know this is off our "ONLY GOLD" topic.. but since its pretty clear that we will have to wait until the end of the storm of FOMC its futile to talk about gold until then..

i was just curious.. anyone here who trades 'Crude oil' ? id like to take a few notes about it
  • #12,733
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:44am Jul 30, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hi, Just interested if your strategy takes into account when/if price takes off in one direction or another and doesn't look back. Do you have a time span, top/bottom etc that you may adhere to and would the profits still out perform the loses in this scenario? Or are you just referring to your longs as per your outlined strategy? I am not trying to be smart in asking because I have often thought of using this strat as well, especially with gold because of its volatility.
I use seasons to assess extremely bullish or bearish phases. As per my analysis, we are in a tug of war phase. Like I have mentioned before while replying to Waleed, my profit % would dip way bad if this were to fall like few hundred $ dollars.

Lets say this were to fall $150 from current price, it is highly unlikely, such fall will take place within a few hrs or days, it will have to be volatile suggesting daily/weekly bottom and top on VSA giving me a chance to hedge and take profits no matter where the price goes. No matter how wild PA is, it has to leave some kind of footprints where its headed. Sometimes its easy to speculate, sometimes its tough, nevertheless at the end of day its rewarding.

Right now, I am well prepared for fall, in other words also ready to buy more as the price goes down, if it does.

As visible in the screenshots, I'm highly inclined towards longs on the basis of Golden Seasons, check post-1 of this thread for seasons.

PS: Feel free to ask logical questions, I'm sure that would help others too.
Hello World!
  • #12,734
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:49am Jul 30, 2014 3:49am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Its worth following even if it comes once in a fortnight or a month.
provided his analysis is 9 / 10 right.
Hello World!
  • #12,735
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:25am Jul 30, 2014 4:25am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I use seasons to assess extremely bullish or bearish phases. As per my analysis, we are in a tug of war phase. Like I have mentioned before while replying to Waleed, my profit % would dip way bad if this were to fall like few hundred $ dollars. Lets say this were to fall $150 from current price, it is highly unlikely, such fall will take place within a few hrs or days, it will have to be volatile suggesting daily/weekly bottom and top on VSA giving me a chance to hedge and take profits no matter where the price goes. No matter how wild PA...
Thanks for answer. It's true, price rarely goes in a straight line up or down. I have being floating the strat in my head for a while now, I may demo trade it for a few months to see how it turns out. I am watching your LT strategy with interest to see how it turns out. I am in agreeance atm though for technical reasons for buying opportunities as it dips lower though as I think you and a few others here (including myself) have mentioned below 1280 could start to look bearish but a touch of the bottom side of the weekly triangle wouldn't be out of the question too. Seems like so many reasons for a run to the safe haven but there appears no pricing in atm. If something develops worse than it should the forgotten "safe haven" may indeed fly.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #12,736
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:09am Jul 30, 2014 5:09am
Quoting haider13
i know this is off our "ONLY GOLD" topic.. but since its pretty clear that we will have to wait until the end of the storm of FOMC its futile to talk about gold until then.. i was just curious.. anyone here who trades 'Crude oil' ? id like to take a few notes about it
I like crude and these are two threads about it http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7638790 and http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post7637963
  • #12,737
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:41am Jul 30, 2014 5:41am
So is everyone ready for some noise today? Some bullshit from the U.S.
  • #12,738
  • Jul 30, 2014 6:29am Jul 30, 2014 6:29am
Quoting atom3
{quote} I like crude and these are two threads about it http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7638790 and http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post7637963

thanks atom3
  • #12,739
  • Jul 30, 2014 7:14am Jul 30, 2014 7:14am
wa
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  • #12,740
  • Jul 30, 2014 7:17am Jul 30, 2014 7:17am
$1301 - $1305 is once again next stage to step through on the upside.

This range needs to be rid of now its been too long pissing about here.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
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