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  • #12,421
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:04pm Jul 25, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Ck87
There's the pop to fool all of us who shorted too early and didn't wait for 1306 to get crossed haha…. no doubt it's falling monday-tues to 1300 probably 1295 and below

Agreed... (have to wait and see for a reversal bar)

According to one ew count the zigzag number 1 was missed (abcd correction due to 61.8 harmonic retracement at b); hence this is going to convert into a double zig zag; If the resistance area is taken out we might see an abc corrective wave up to level x which is going to be near the b top (1320-30) area...

After that we will head down again to complete another zig zag for a price target in the zone of 1253 and 1280.
  • #12,422
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:07pm Jul 25, 2014 3:07pm
Ukraine vs Russia conflict? and the world's conflict with the Russians?
  • #12,423
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:07pm Jul 25, 2014 3:07pm
Into sideways territory again..
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  • #12,424
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:12pm Jul 25, 2014 3:12pm
Most overbought reading on the hourly in over a month…. This should be a good one
  • #12,425
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:13pm Jul 25, 2014 3:13pm
What a nice move (",) just toke my 2nd short @ 1307,90 (",)
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  • #12,426
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:23pm Jul 25, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Ck87
Most overbought reading on the hourly in over a month…. This should be a good one

Something to factor in...

S&p closed low; infact it seems like there is an evening star on the daily; which could lead to a sell off for a couple of days... only positive there is that the 20 sma held!
  • #12,427
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:25pm Jul 25, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Au @ 1308 Nice 21 $ rally so far today and amazing thing.. not a single sign of peak out yet, which means, this could possibly climb further on Mon and Tue unless it peaks out before closing.
have u found bottom out before this going up? if so then on what price?
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #12,428
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:26pm Jul 25, 2014 3:26pm
Opened a short @ 1307.60. Aiming for a TP @ 1285 next week.
  • #12,429
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:28pm Jul 25, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Probably a nice play….
Sentiment in India today was "Go Short", my broker's sentiment was "Go Sell" too, but, since they know I don't give a sh!t to what they say, they don't advise me anymore. I have to ask them what their advise is and what people are doing.

I would like to cite the fact that the commodity exchange here doesn't allow people to use SL.
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  • #12,430
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:31pm Jul 25, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Sentiment in India today was "Go Short", my broker's sentiment was "Go Sell" too, but, since they know I don't give a sh!t to what they say, they don't advise me anymore. I have to ask them what their advise is and what people are doing. I would like to cite the fact that the commodity exchange here doesn't allow people to use SL.

Are there daily locks though imposed by the exchange?
  • #12,431
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:32pm Jul 25, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting farukh
{quote} have u found bottom out before this going up? if so then on what price?
There was not a clean and loud bottom out there. I bought 6 positions in the 1290ish range and closed all 4 shorts @ 1299 for below reasons

 

  1. Being an investor, got to buy at each level downwards (apparently MM first)
  2. DCB suggested to use GREEN SL for shorts @ 1299
  3. Golden Seasons vouched for long term longs
  4. Key Clock hr patterns suggest up-swing, thats why I gave intra-day buy call with SL today

hope this helps!

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  • #12,432
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:32pm Jul 25, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Something to factor in... S&p closed low; infact it seems like there is an evening star on the daily; which could lead to a sell off for a couple of days... only positive there is that the 20 sma held!

I hear you, but not as relevant in a super bull trend like this… the market had 1000 reasons to sell off big for a while now and still hasn't. Definitely can go lower and metals can climb higher…. we shall see next wk.
  • #12,433
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:35pm Jul 25, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I hear you, but not as relevant in a super bull trend like this… the market had 1000 reasons to sell off big for a while now and still hasn't. Definitely can go lower and metals can climb higher…. we shall see next wk.

See the daily chart of the S&P and the doji tops that have occured...that's a clear fractal pattern there... note how the market tends to sell off for a couple of days...

That might just be the impetus gold needs to break out of this channel and revisit 1320-1330 area?
  • #12,434
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:36pm Jul 25, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Are there daily locks though imposed by the exchange?
Can you elaborate "daily locks"? does that mean daily limits?

As it appears, people who are short with not loads of money in their account will wake up with margin calls on Monday. Particularly if their MM is bad. We (Indians here) need to keep minimum 8 - 10% (approx) in our account. In other words its 1:10 leverage allowed, but, its advisable to keep 15% at least.

Trading Forex from India at individual level is illegal.

I can't even fund a Forex account using my credit / debit cards, can't send a wire either. So, the only option is to use a system which is handicap and like from stone age.
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  • #12,435
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:40pm Jul 25, 2014 3:40pm
Hedged 2 more

Now:
29 longs
6 shorts

net 23 longs
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  • #12,436
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:41pm Jul 25, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} See the daily chart of the S&P and the doji tops that have occured...that's a clear fractal pattern there... note how the market tends to sell off for a couple of days... That might just be the impetus gold needs to break out of this channel and revisit 1320-1330 area?

Anything's possible, we all know that….

Thing is there's still way too many longs on gold…. (sentiment screenshot attached from ig markets)

As long as the number is that high I can't see any rally on gold lasting… any rally still be a good shorting opportunity imo.

Timing is of course crucial though… oh well hope the high is in for the next couple days at least.
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  • #12,437
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:42pm Jul 25, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Can you elaborate "daily locks"? does that mean daily limits? As it appears, people who are short with not loads of money in their account will wake up with margin calls on Monday. Particularly if their MM is bad. We (Indians here) need to keep minimum 8 - 10% (approx) in our account. In other words its 1:10 leverage allowed, but, its advisable to keep 15% at least. Trading Forex from India at individual level is illegal. I can't even fund a Forex account using my credit / debit cards, can't send a wire either. So, the only option is to...

That's terrible for the individual...

On some level good for the country (less capital flows out)... after all it is a zero sum game; and India should preserve its capital

by locks I meant limits - yes! but thinking about it I'm sure the Indian commodity exchange is linked with globex; hence they wouldn't be allowed to put daily limits themselves...otherwise there would be a significant distortion in the indian price and the global price and way to many gaps on the charts".
  • #12,438
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:47pm Jul 25, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Anything's possible, we all know that…. Thing is there's still way too many longs on gold…. (sentiment screenshot attached from ig markets) As long as the number is that high I can't see any rally on gold lasting… any rally still be a good shorting opportunity imo. Timing is of course crucial though… oh well hope the high is in for the next couple days at least. {image}
thats interesting, I just hedged 2 more.

Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} That's terrible for the individual... On some level good for the country (less capital flows out)... after all it is a zero sum game; and India should preserve its capital by locks I meant limits - yes! but thinking about it I'm sure the Indian commodity exchange is linked with globex; hence they wouldn't be allowed to put daily limits themselves...otherwise there would be a significant distortion in the indian price and the global price and way to many gaps on the charts".
Yea, the price is synched with Globex, BUT, first on the basis of US $, Indian Rupee gets converted to US$ first and then its priced against XAU.
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  • #12,439
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:50pm Jul 25, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Anything's possible, we all know that…. Thing is there's still way too many longs on gold…. (sentiment screenshot attached from ig markets) As long as the number is that high I can't see any rally on gold lasting… any rally still be a good shorting opportunity imo. Timing is of course crucial though… oh well hope the high is in for the next couple days at least. {image}
Yeah agree on the client sentiment bit.

the channel is still holding so we are good; but if that alternate count that I have mentioned is correct; then that expects to see one leg down before going up to 1320-1330 level; of course the leg down means that price will remain above the 1287 low. (so that is a positive in this short play)

Good luck though
  • #12,440
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:54pm Jul 25, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} thats interesting, I just hedged 2 more. {quote} Yea, the price is synched with Globex, BUT, first on the basis of US $, Indian Rupee gets converted to US$ first and then its priced against XAU.
So wait a minute... you get dinged twice? double charge? I hope the spreads are good though then?
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