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Only Gold!

  • #12,181
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:42pm Jul 23, 2014 9:42pm
@XAU/USD DailyTrend BEARISH potential to 1287 then 1259, stop 1309!
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  • #12,182
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:43pm Jul 23, 2014 9:43pm
You are abs. right mate.

ROI is like 10 - 20% per month and can be a lot, BUT, you must have backup of cash if things go wrong.

Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hi Bernbeach I think what CT does is "hedging" (for a lack of a better term). He is long biased for the long term (seasonal), but takes shorts (when he sees short opportunities). I think that is the logic behind his method; which can actually be very effective if you trade small positions and scatter them over a spectrum...hoping to take profit from a deviation from the mean. I think this is a decent approach to trading "commodities" in general as they are more or less ranging; (plus also his seasonal approach is in fact the same thing --...
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  • #12,183
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:46pm Jul 23, 2014 9:46pm
Not a single sign of bottom out ahead and this only looks like getting bad to me unless I'm wrong. Yet, I feel like adding a couple of longs, too dangerous, yet tempting.

Hope I can control my temptations and play safe.
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  • #12,184
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:52pm Jul 23, 2014 9:52pm
i just placed 2 longs now taking profit when it hits 1299.32 reshorting for final down move with no tp set. instead i'll add a trailing stop i got no clue where this may end up because of some panic it may go even further down than predicted
  • #12,185
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:00pm Jul 23, 2014 10:00pm
I've never been a fan of hedging.. I believe you're either IN or your OUT.. build into your positions with multiple smaller lots to form your target position.. and close them as you see fit. I found this WAY easier to manage than hedging.

Example;

If you target 5 lots open.
open 5x 1 lot, or 10x 0.5 lot rather than 1x 5lot position.. this offers MUCH more flexibility and closing portions of your trade is essentially, the same as hedging without having to manage MORE positions, you are managing LESS for the same result.

As you approach your TP, close out the positions rather then hedging with shorts because all you end up doing is paying swaps on even more positions..

This is how my current exposure to the short side was established, as we went up through 20.8 to 21.15 i added multiple shorts to build my final position, people I know went all in at 20.9ish then when it shot to 21.1 they hedged, now locking in an overall loss and don't know what to do..

Hope my random rant makes some sense hehe

Mitch
  • #12,186
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:04pm Jul 23, 2014 10:04pm
Gold/Silver are acting how they have acted for years around Options/Futures Expiration day.. by being beaten down. It isnt a surprise it happened again..

Tuesday is expiry day, I wouldn't expect any miraculous rallies till they are done, however I expect us to head higher in August based on technicals

Mitch
  • #12,187
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:05pm Jul 23, 2014 10:05pm
Needless to say today is going to be a very interesting day. PA looks extremely slippery like a lubricating fluid to me. I really wish there was a bottom out sooner than later, but its going to be challenging.

So, I'm going to watch today, desperately awaiting London morning and thereafter NY morning.
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  • #12,188
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:11pm Jul 23, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Mitchoss
I've never been a fan of hedging.. I believe you're either IN or your OUT.. build into your positions with multiple smaller lots to form your target position.. and close them as you see fit. I found this WAY easier to manage than hedging. Example; If you target 5 lots open. open 5x 1 lot, or 10x 0.5 lot rather than 1x 5lot position.. this offers MUCH more flexibility and closing portions of your trade is essentially, the same as hedging without having to manage MORE positions, you are managing LESS for the same result. As you approach your TP, close...
VERY much so THKS
  • #12,189
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:25pm Jul 23, 2014 10:25pm
In first place, why would a very long term investor even want to take TP? I would like my great-great-great-great..... grand-children get the feeling how positions taken few hundred years back feels like. I know how mammoth this sounds like.

So, if I take interest only and only in investing, how do I pay my bills? I would like to pay my bills by closing the shorts (hedges) in GREEN!

Apparently, this all is too hyper hypothetical, but, I would like to give this idea one shot this season. I experiment a lot, retired from 9 - 5 lifestyle eight years back.

If anyone here has inherited an asset which was once owned by his great-great..... forefathers, he/she can feel my idea.


Quoting Mitchoss
I've never been a fan of hedging.. I believe you're either IN or your OUT.. build into your positions with multiple smaller lots to form your target position.. and close them as you see fit. I found this WAY easier to manage than hedging. Example; If you target 5 lots open. open 5x 1 lot, or 10x 0.5 lot rather than 1x 5lot position.. this offers MUCH more flexibility and closing portions of your trade is essentially, the same as hedging without having to manage MORE positions, you are managing LESS for the same result. As you approach your TP, close...
Hello World!
  • #12,190
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:31pm Jul 23, 2014 10:31pm
My last post was so inspiring, so inspiring that I just added a long, lolz, getting emotional is bad, yet, I did it.

Regardless of all this.. see my MM is not bad, I'm awake, I'm feeling good today.

PS: The P/L in this account is still nice and green.
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  • #12,191
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:32pm Jul 23, 2014 10:32pm
CT i don't know but i have a feeling mitchos was talking to me too well, i can't open various lots because my platform only lets me laverage 1x10 on gold paying comission of 5€ to enter and 5 € to leave.. as you can expect opening 5 lots regardless the amount would mean i would have to pay 50 € just for the openings and closes id rather set up good intraday entrys and try to catch the bounces at the same time i'm riding the trend ^.^

Your insight about these metals has been amazing anyway mitchos and i really have to thank you for that. Please keep it up and if you ever need anything do not hesitate!
  • #12,192
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:33pm Jul 23, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting ClockTrader
Needless to say today is going to be a very interesting day. PA looks extremely slippery like a lubricating fluid to me. I really wish there was a bottom out sooner than later, but its going to be challenging. So, I'm going to watch today, desperately awaiting London morning and thereafter NY morning.

The problem is that the US market still goes higher and higher and it's a better place to be than gold. As long as that remains to be the case, the downward pressure will continue, aside from smaller rallies and outside geopolitical tensions that cause some buying.
  • #12,193
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:37pm Jul 23, 2014 10:37pm
an old method i used to trade with long time ago and it 85% right,if i have a short position on gold right now,not to close it till next month,and to be closed at this months low minus five dollars
  • #12,194
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:41pm Jul 23, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} The problem is that the US market still goes higher and higher and it's a better place to be than gold. As long as that remains to be the case, the downward pressure will continue, aside from smaller rallies and outside geopolitical tensions that cause some buying.
:-)
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  • #12,195
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:43pm Jul 23, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting Windstrown
CT i don't know but i have a feeling mitchos was talking to me too well, i can't open various lots because my platform only lets me laverage 1x10 on gold paying comission of 5€ to enter and 5 € to leave.. as you can expect opening 5 lots regardless the amount would mean i would have to pay 50 € just for the openings and closes id rather set up good intraday entrys and try to catch the bounces at the same time i'm riding the trend ^.^ Your insight about these metals has been amazing anyway mitchos and i really have to thank you for that. Please...
I thank everyone who is a part of this thread for being around and for being such nice buddies :-)
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  • #12,196
  • Jul 23, 2014 11:05pm Jul 23, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting ClockTrader
In first place, why would a very long term investor even want to take TP? I would like my great-great-great-great..... grand-children get the feeling how positions taken few hundred years back feels like. I know how mammoth this sounds like. So, if I take interest only and only in investing, how do I pay my bills? I would like to pay my bills by closing the shorts (hedges) in GREEN! Apparently, this all is too hyper hypothetical, but, I would like to give this idea one shot this season. I experiment a lot, retired from 9 - 5 lifestyle eight years...
I wasn't having a stab at you/your trading strategy as if managed correctly can be very effective. If you are building an investment portfolio for the long term I can see the merit in it, but an intraday trader should not be hedging in my honest opinion..

On that, what is the daily swaps on your positions? is it cheaper to hold a short than a long?

Mitch

PS. I'm envious of you not working the 9-5 anymore, but I think I'd be a massive alcho if I quit Mining. haha
  • #12,197
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:07am Jul 24, 2014 12:07am
I've never focused on swaps much, looks like holding shorts is cheaper.

I never take any comment / post as a stab unless its of extreme type. Never ever feel bothered on this front.

I try to speak my mind and my heart. This leads me to self-realization, feels very good honestly.

Once I have good number of longs, I'll begin to hedge effectively. June and July are too early to look at profits.


Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} I wasn't having a stab at you/your trading strategy as if managed correctly can be very effective. If you are building an investment portfolio for the long term I can see the merit in it, but an intraday trader should not be hedging in my honest opinion.. On that, what is the daily swaps on your positions? is it cheaper to hold a short than a long? Mitch PS. I'm envious of you not working the 9-5 anymore, but I think I'd be a massive alcho if I quit Mining. haha
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  • #12,198
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:14am Jul 24, 2014 12:14am
hey ct my long is with you in spirit my target was not hit so i'll just sit tight here for august now lol
  • #12,199
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:31am Jul 24, 2014 12:31am
Quoting Windstrown
hey ct my long is with you in spirit my target was not hit so i'll just sit tight here for august now lol
The falls and rallies will continue to come and go, just make sure to milk this cow once in a while.
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  • #12,200
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:43am Jul 24, 2014 12:43am
Ct is 1293 a good support? And what's the suggested SL?
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