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Only Gold!

  • #9,721
  • Jun 5, 2014 11:45am Jun 5, 2014 11:45am
* A bizarre attempt to understand what is happening right now with the Euro*

After negative interest rates the euro should be down; but it has moved up...

Okay..negative interest rates should mean that banks will be charged for holding cash in the interbank arena... which means that they are better off loaning the money out rather than keeping it...

Here is what banks and banking aligned hedge funds have decided to do...take that money and pump it in the euro... so that this can prompt draghi to give more QE; which will ultimately inflate the value of stocks and real estate in europe!

Does that sound like a plan...or am I on something
  • #9,722
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:55pm Jun 5, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting waleed.khan
* A bizarre attempt to understand what is happening right now with the Euro* After negative interest rates the euro should be down; but it has moved up... Okay..negative interest rates should mean that banks will be charged for holding cash in the interbank arena... which means that they are better off loaning the money out rather than keeping it... Here is what banks and banking aligned hedge funds have decided to do...take that money and pump it in the euro... so that this can prompt draghi to give more QE; which will ultimately inflate the value...
Yes true! Overall I think Euro should be in 1.3300 region, there are a lot of buyers at the minute, probably pushing the rate high. Also if you see we had a retracement of more than 500 pips in Euro since last ECB meeting, so we need some move back up before we again come back down. As I see it we might go to 1.37-38 region before falling back. ECB also said today that the rate cut is not final and they do have more arsenals in their pocket, so before they use that we need a bit of upward push. I am out of Euro and will stay on the side line for a while before I see a meaningful entry points, was holding some long-term shorts which I off-loaded today.

About Gold have some long entries, will be a while before they come back in green. Will have to hold on to them for a while.
  • #9,723
  • Jun 5, 2014 4:57pm Jun 5, 2014 4:57pm
morning ALL, I think (im guilty as well) we might be goinng of track a bit ..... the thread is "Only Gold" CT is probably to polite to say so.....??????
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,724
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:13pm Jun 5, 2014 6:13pm
Discipline let me down last night..

So the plan was to take profit on my shorts at the 1241 level and then enter some long to ride the jump...

What really happened.
I went for a beer or two, picked up and checked the charts at 11:30 AUD time last night and we had reached the 1241 and then jumped..

How do I feel, well it was a good night and not complaining about it, but a bit annoyed at myself as well.
So where has it left me, I now have less crazy longs, but have a couple of less crazy shorts as well...
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,725
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:17pm Jun 5, 2014 6:17pm
I went long 1245.46, thought whoa its near high ,take profit and be happy, .. and whooska
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,726
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:21pm Jun 5, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting Qed
I went long 1245.46, thought whoa its near high ,take profit and be happy, .. and whooska
Nice move,

I think we can still drop. Not convinced we have fully reversed trend yet.
On my weekly chart I am seeing a bull trend but it is at least two weeks away. So I think we have room to bear over next week and then may start our bull trend. Unless drastic news from the US or world impacts of course.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,727
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:22pm Jun 5, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting Qed
I went long 1245.46, thought whoa its near high ,take profit and be happy, .. and whooska
Or did you TP just before whooska.. yeah that sucks..
It is hard to let a profitable trade run when you think you have seen a bear signal.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,728
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:33pm Jun 5, 2014 6:33pm
that spike up to resistance ,I thought it came back too quick and therewas nothing () to sugest a run up thought maybe taking stops out so quit , never worries me taking profit or missing out on "couldas" looing at weekly with 40sma the downtrend hasa way to go imo .. still looking for shorts
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,729
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:21pm Jun 5, 2014 7:21pm
Of course the following scenario may play out...

So we saw a spike last night with the EUR news release.
Tonight we have

USDNon-Farm Employment Change
USDUnemployment Rate

If these are bad releases we may well break all current trend and head north in a big way.
I dare say even the if the forecast is met we will head north as the forecast is a bit dire..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,730
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:32pm Jun 5, 2014 8:32pm
H4 - We are nearly touching the bottom of a very thick bear cloud. (thick cloud = strong resistance). The cloud has a run for the bear, but if we break into the cloud then a trend reversal may well be developing. On the shorter time frames a trend reversal seems in play, are people entering longs in anticipation of tonights news?

Very quiet on this thread at the moment.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,731
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:03pm Jun 5, 2014 9:03pm
just keeping an eye on it ...
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,732
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:08pm Jun 5, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting whackdiddy
Discipline let me down last night.. So the plan was to take profit on my shorts at the 1241 level and then enter some long to ride the jump... What really happened. I went for a beer or two, picked up and checked the charts at 11:30 AUD time last night and we had reached the 1241 and then jumped.. How do I feel, well it was a good night and not complaining about it, but a bit annoyed at myself as well. So where has it left me, I now have less crazy longs, but have a couple of less crazy shorts as well...
i was waiting for a collapse but the ECB took the lead, i was commited to take a lose in my long but when i woke up had rallied $15 to the upside and tp hitted, profit made.

the downside were the direction going but the ECB changed the rules, dont blame urself, this was pretty unexpected by everybody, wait for tomorrow,
tomorrow will be ton of wild action in the gold markets.
  • #9,733
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:09pm Jun 5, 2014 9:09pm
1st up I check daily, atm Idont see anything to excite me ,still waiting and looking for shorts , patience reaps its rewards......
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,734
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:10pm Jun 5, 2014 9:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,735
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:28pm Jun 5, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting whackdiddy
Of course the following scenario may play out... So we saw a spike last night with the EUR news release. Tonight we have USDNon-Farm Employment Change USDUnemployment Rate If these are bad releases we may well break all current trend and head north in a big way. I dare say even the if the forecast is met we will head north as the forecast is a bit dire..

Maybe, but it's likely that gold will still go down after a spike up...IF NFP is bad. If print is good, we could see a huge selloff. Either way, there is little inflation and QE is coming off the table, so I am looking for shorting opportunities regardless of what it does Friday.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #9,736
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:30pm Jun 5, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} i was waiting for a collapse but the ECB took the lead, i was commited to take a lose in my long but when i woke up had rallied $15 to the upside and tp hitted, profit made. the downside were the direction going but the ECB changed the rules, dont blame urself, this was pretty unexpected by everybody, wait for tomorrow, tomorrow will be ton of wild action in the gold markets.
I was all setup for it and predicted the move exactly, although did not think it would go as high as the 1250s.. but would have been able to ride it.

So instead of taking a 1k profit on the dip to 1241 and then riding a 1.3k to 1250s I had some cheap and nasty sex.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,737
  • Jun 5, 2014 10:21pm Jun 5, 2014 10:21pm
Nasty? you must be young........
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #9,738
  • Jun 5, 2014 11:17pm Jun 5, 2014 11:17pm
Quoting Qed
Nasty? you must be young........
slang, aussie, nasty (good, great, awesome)...
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #9,739
  • Jun 5, 2014 11:20pm Jun 5, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting biondo
{quote} :-D not that much :-D AM of which country? {image}
Cambodia, it sucks though.
u what country ?
  • #9,740
  • Jun 5, 2014 11:24pm Jun 5, 2014 11:24pm
haha ... if yourr old theres no such thing as nasty sex ...........LOL
Whats That? you're trading What?
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